Bragg's thoughts on Global Growth & Energy

**BraggSurvivor** · 03-27-2008, 10:18 PM

Say goodbye to global growth ?

I've been thinking about this for some time now . We are being told by energy experts that there are about 85 million barrels of oil available for sale on a daily basis . We are also told that we are burning about the same 85 million barrels a day . They are also telling us that peak oil is here .

The World Bank is telling us there will be a few percentage points of growth this year , My question is how does the global economy get any growth at all , when we are already burning all the oil that is being produced ? I know that coal can be used along with natural gas , but it can't be used for every thing . Bottom line is no oil no growth , or at least very little .

I heard that in China , either this year or in the coming year , more that 500 new coal burning plants will be coming on line . If the Chinese are have trouble finding a clean breath of air now , WAIT !
Going forward it looks as though global growth will either have to be curtailed , or global air quality is going to suffer .

Bottom line is this , growth from here out is going to be painful to your wallet , or hazardous to your health .

P.S. What do you think ?

**beerrunner13** · 03-27-2008, 10:30 PM

What about Nukes?

**BraggSurvivor** · 03-27-2008, 11:16 PM

beerrunner, I will do a post on nukes.

In the meantime check out Elena's site. First time I rode with her was 1994. She often rides the Chernobyl Dead Zone on her motorcyle.(kinda guess where my thought are on nukes)

http://www.kiddofspeed.com/chernobyl...es/author.html

**GVan** · 03-28-2008, 12:24 AM

Humanity has a great perpensity for finding solutions when ever conftonted by a problem.
At Exon petroleum, a number of yeats ago, studies were made into using a natural gas distilled from coal with great success. This program reportedly ended when government funding ended under Regan.

In the 60's and early 70's studies were made into ocean wave energy.

Some of today's plastics are mase from plant fibers and resins.

We will continue to grow. What we are required to as of ourselves is, "What will I/we be willing to pay for this growth.

One prophetcizer saw a future world of more austere conditions with us using unknown energy sources, and communial transportation. Personal property was, in this vision, greatly reduced.

So, cling well to your "farms" my brothers and sisters and find new and different ways to deal without energy derived from oil.

**Rick** · 03-28-2008, 08:46 AM

It's no surprise that crude oil production is not only past peak but there are some that believe the Saudi reserves are over estimated by two fold. I did a post on M. King Hubert elsewhere but his models and estimates have been right on the money:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

You might also be surprised that Canada has the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

**trax** · 03-28-2008, 12:35 PM

I am surprised, I thought we were first.

**Rick** · 03-28-2008, 12:38 PM

I watched a Discovery/A&E/Something or other special about an oil sand project in western (?) Canada. They were suckin' loads of oil but the sand played havoc on the equipment.

**trax** · 03-28-2008, 12:43 PM

Yep, northern Alberta, Bragg's world. The process for separating the oil from the sands is apparently very expensive and very very bad for the environment, but I was made to understand that the reserves there are massive. Of course, if it costs them more, they'll still want to go to the mid-East and just drill for it.

I think that if we wanted seriously to see some market corrections and gas prices dropping, Canada and US should put there little heads together and say, thank you OPEC but we'll be gettin all of our petroleum from Alberta from now on.Watch how fast their prices start dropping. Laws of supply and demand take a pretty big shake up when all of a sudden the demand for you product dies an immediate death.

**Rick** · 03-28-2008, 01:01 PM

Depleted coal mines and landfills are both good sources of natural gas. We had underground mines at the 600/650 foot mark where I was born and raised. Dozens of old, abandoned mines honeycomb the area and many folks have drilled into those old mines and draw the methane off for use as natural gas. It's a freeby and they are making use of it.

Coalbeds and landfills account for about 3% of total production today. Not bad, eh?

**Sourdough** · 03-28-2008, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by BraggSurvivor

Say goodbye to global growth ?

I've been thinking about this for some time now . We are being told by energy experts that there are about 85 million barrels of oil available for sale on a daily basis . We are also told that we are burning about the same 85 million barrels a day . They are also telling us that peak oil is here .

The World Bank is telling us there will be a few percentage points of growth this year , My question is how does the global economy get any growth at all , when we are already burning all the oil that is being produced ? I know that coal can be used along with natural gas , but it can't be used for every thing . Bottom line is no oil no growth , or at least very little .

I heard that in China , either this year or in the coming year , more that 500 new coal burning plants will be coming on line . If the Chinese are have trouble finding a clean breath of air now , WAIT !
Going forward it looks as though global growth will either have to be curtailed , or global air quality is going to suffer .

Bottom line is this , growth from here out is going to be painful to your wallet , or hazardous to your health .

P.S. What do you think ?

Oddly, our greatest fear is the solution: Pandemic, starvation, WW III. Just eliminate 5.5 billion of the 7 billion human thingies, and everything will be fine.

**Rick** · 03-28-2008, 02:04 PM

Gosh, lots of gloom and doom there. There are actually a LOT of alternatives. The key is how much we are willing to pay for it. There are still a lot of untapped reserves that have been cost prohibitive to date but are now looking more and more feasible. See:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5945678/

In addition, there are enormous quantities of methane hydrate in the ocean floor. Again, how much are we willing to pay. See:

http://www.ornl.gov/info/reporter/no16/methane.htm

A conversion from natural gas fired power plants to nuclear energy would reduce consumption of natural gas.

Oil shale and oil sand are both economically feasible given the higher prices per barrel.

Imagine just the cost to convert the U.S. military to a fuel other than petroleum. The cost has to be in billions of dollars.

**bulrush** · 03-28-2008, 02:08 PM

I thought the US was getting tons of oil from Iraq (or at least a sizable amount) so how come the price hasn't gone down?

The US was supposed to buy oil from Iraq so Iraq would have the cash to rebuild. That was the plan anyway several years ago.

**beerrunner13** · 03-28-2008, 02:40 PM

Originally Posted by bulrush

I thought the US was getting tons of oil from Iraq (or at least a sizable amount) so how come the price hasn't gone down?

The US was supposed to buy oil from Iraq so Iraq would have the cash to rebuild. That was the plan anyway several years ago.

Alasit didn't work out that way at present the US military is importing 3 million a day worth of oil to Iraq