LONG Term 30 years 80 years "SHTF", you ready?

[Sourdough]

What about SHTF that lasted for more than 3 months, longer than 6 months. What if it was never ever close to what it is now. We think in terms of temporary hardship, and lots of humanity coming to help us.

What if it lasted for generations. What could you do, what have you done.

I have enough clothing and boots, gloves, hats, etc. to last the rest of my life. I would most likely die of other short comings, like I should have two more back-up wood stoves, and metal chimneys. 30 spare chain loops, for the chainsaws.

Assumptions have always interested me. What have I forgotten, not for 30 days, but for 30 YEARS. Hydraulic fluid for the log splitter, Bow saw blades, fuel filters for the dozer. Why do we assume an arbitrary number of days. Why not have more of everything. What will cause you and your family to die...? Why do we draw a line and say, OK I am prepared.

[crashdive123]

That certainly is an interesting question and one that I will have to give some serious thought to. I believe that the next serious, wide spread crisis that we are going to see is hyperinflation. The more that we can store and stock up on now - the easier we will be able to weather that storm. This is something that I have been thinking about, although not quite in the terms that you have presented. I want to explore this more - but - bed time right now. Thanks for the thought provoking question. I'll either sleep like a baby or have nightmares..........I'm guessing the former.

[welderguy]

I'm never prepared enough, if I have 10 spark plugs for my generator I want 10 more , I never have enough stuff , equipment, gear, The list goes on and on.

[Alaskan Survivalist]

Your premise is wrong in regards to myself. I am a hard core doomer that see's it all going down the crapper. I have seen nothing but a continious decline all my life and no sign it will reverse coarse. The SHTF for more people each day and will continue. More people will be dividing less from here on out.

P.S. What is happening is what is most likely to happen.

[pocomoonskyeyes]

If I am understanding the question correctly..... It wouldn't matter how much stuff you had stockpiled for the new age machines..... Fuel won't last that long. In that case the more "Basics" in tools and transportation, the better your chances. I mean if that is the choice that it is going down the drain and not coming back up. WOOD burning stove, Mules or oxen etc. and plows, Brace and Bits,Hand saws of all types, Hand operated Grain mill....... Stuff like that.

Just my 2¢

[rwc1969]

Hard to say! It would all depend on the scenario. But, I don't think stockpiling is a long term answer. The only feasible long term answer, regardless if the shtf or not, is to be more self reliant and less reliant on the modern era.

If we weren't so reliant on money, the things it can buy, and modern comforts we would elimate many SHTF scenarios from ever occuring in the first place.

The shtf hard for my grandparent's and to some extent my parent's generations. But, they weren't solely reliant on our modern system, and hardly noticed the effects the depression had on our modern society and those who relied heavily upon it.

[your_comforting_company]

ehem.. I propose the primitive aspect for sustaining myself. My preps are all supposing that any SHTF will last more than a few months. a few months of hardship ain't squat.. Every time I think about it I go back to the Great Depression. I hate to even think how many people starved to death, just because they didn't know stuff they could eat, or froze to death because they didn't have enough clothes. Whats the real question here?

We are more likely to die from sickness and disease, or the S actually hitting the fan in a cataclysmic way (you know it is never distributed evenly...), than from any other means. I say this because I live in a Perpetual Garden of Eden. There is no reason the land couldn't sustain myself and my family. Nature's bounty is all around us all year long here.

Aeons passed with civilized (that's right, NOT savages) societies based on simple hunting / gathering economics. Rocks were money. Seeds were money. Fish were money. When was the last time you tried to eat a Jackson? really needs some peppersauce...

show me the coin used to pay the tax. Whose face is on this coin? And whose inscription? "Ceasar's". Give to ceasar what is ceasars, and to God what is God's

My question, is where are you gonna get gas and oil for your chaisaws in 3 years if all the stores closed today? Then what good are those 30 chains for your saw? Do you know how to fell a tree without a chainsaw? Do you really need to fell a tree and cut it into measured lengths and split it into perfect wedges?

I find alternative and more primitive (read "basic") means to the same ends. That's how I'm preparing. What you are proposing is the situation I see coming. I'm with AlaskanSurvivalist on this one.

[Sourdough]

Every one of you guys is on the right track for this thread. This could be a good thread. We think in terms of problems that last for days or maybe months. What if it is 3 years, or 16 years. Those who have children, what happens when they out grow their shoes, coats, etc. I think people who have children have to really look at what if.

I am good for the first year, but I don't think I could do two back to back winters if the SHTF big time. What interests me, is finding the one thing I forgot. I have two spare wood stoves, but only one extra chimney. Saw blades, files. What will be your "Waterloo". We concentrate on food, clothing , shelter, fire, water. But we need so much more. Nails, do you have 50# of number eight commons, and 50# of 16d coated nails. What did you forget

[Ken]

I've thought about this before. What happens if the SHTF long-term due to a cataclysmic event, the drying up of basis resources, or societal collapse.

The bottom line is, over the decades and centuries, we've experienced dramatic improvements in factors such as health care, public health/food/water safety, work place safety, food supply and distribution - the list goes on.

If we digress in one or more of those factors, the answer is quite simple. People will begin to die at an earlier age, although perhaps still older than at comparable stages of development (digression) over history, simply because we have also accumulated knowledge as we've gone along. There will be some exceptions to this general outlook, but I suspect that there won't be many exceptions, even for the "most prepared."

Nonetheless, if you think far enough back, even the most wealthy, those who had ample resources available to them at that time, still died at a much earlier age than even our least fortunate "social classes" do today.

It is what it is and we ain't gonna' change it.


"Life expectancy from birth is a frequently utilized and analyzed component of demographic data for the countries of the world. It represents the average life span of a newborn and is an indicator of the overall health of a country. Life expectancy can fall due to problems like famine, war, disease and poor health. Improvements in health and welfare increase life expectancy. The higher the life expectancy, the better shape a country is in.
................................

During the Roman Empire, Romans had a approximate life expectancy of 22 to 25 years. In 1900, the world life expectancy was approximately 30 years and in 1985 it was about 62 years, just two years short of today's life expectancy."

http://geography.about.com/od/popula...expectancy.htm


"The average life expectancy in Colonial America was under 25 years in the Virginia colony, and in New England about 40% of children failed to reach adulthood. During the Industrial Revolution, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically. The percentage of children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730-1749 to 31.8% in 1810-1829."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

Here's a detailed report on life expectancy:

U.S. Life Expectancy in the United States
Source: For data through 2002, the Congressional Research Service (CRS)

http://aging.senate.gov/crs/aging1.pdf

[Pal334]

My guess is that the "material things" , chain saws, generators, etc will not be as important for the "Long haul". As Nell said, the gas would be gone, manufacturing capacity would be greatly diminished. I am concentrating on gaining knowledge, learning skills that I can use and pass on to others (kids, grand kids etc). Obviously I am making appropriate short term arrangements ( foods , equipment etc). But knowledge and skills will be what is needed for the long term.

[Rick]

There are few historical references to assume something so long term will happen. And the desire to rebuild, if it did, would be overwhelming. That would be driven by simple, basic, human greed. And the other question is why would I pour my resources into a scenario that is far less likely to occur than some short term weather related event?

Let's face it, if something like that were to happen our 80+ year life span would evaporate into the historical 30+ year life span in short order. Think about your own life for a moment. How many opportunities have you had to die but the medical community intervened? My guess is, on average, one or two per person. I know I've certainly been down that road. Without proper medical intervention your life won't last very long. Besides, given my age, lasting 30 years is pretty remote.

[preachtheWORD]

+1 to ycc's post

If "preparation" means that you have enough supplies and equipment stockpiled to outlast a 30+ year crisis, then I am definitely not prepared, not in the least. If that is what preparation means, then I will probably never be prepared. I simply do not have the $$$ to stockpile a lot of stuff. Shoot, I don't even have the $$$ to buy the things I need right now.

However, if "preparation" means having the skills and knowledge to make do without much in the way of supplies or equipment, then I am on my way. Rather than invest myself in a lot of "things", I chose to invest myself in in a lot of "skills."

I don't think I could make it 30 years on the skills I have now. Maybe a year - maybe. But that is a heck of a lot longer than I could make it on the supplies and equipment in my house.

[Tripwire]

I have food thats good for 5-7 years. I dont know If I'll last that long.

[Sourdough]

I guess my inquire had more to do with children, for those who have children. And compelling them to learn skills, even at a young age (for me 5 years old) children can be working on the farm. Also if I had children, and had access to used/free children's clothing, I would forward plan (hoard) to have clothing for children as they out grow existing. When I was young, we got one pair of sneakers per year, and one pair of school shoes per year, the skill I learned is the make it last, proper care and maintenance, save old shoes so parts of same could be used to insert into the current shoes to cover the warn out hole in the bottom. Now day it is daddy I need $19.95 for new shoes.

[your_comforting_company]

PTW. I love you, man!
and Amen!

My wife did some research a while back about causes of death 50 years ago. It was probably because there weren't such sophisticated studies of different diseases, etc, but people used to die from simple things such as tonsilitis, earache, fever, and pneumonia. Heck, I know people (knew) who have died from pneumonia recently WITH medical intervention. One of which was a close relative.
Life expectancy will drop significantly, sure. 300 years ago a man who lived to be 60 was considered an ELDER. What's retirement age? For all my grandad's savings, he didn't live long enough to enjoy them, or even retire.
Heck, I doubt I'll live that long even if nothing happens. If you can afford to stockpile the things you think you'll need, you're better off than I am. Like PTW, I'm having a hard time meeting my needs NOW, I can only hope for a more simplistic life where daily survival is based on the willpower to do what needs to be done, and the knowledge of how to accomplish said goal without modern resources.

[your_comforting_company]

Now day it is daddy I need $19.95 for new shoes.

you mean $119.95, right?

[trax]

Well, I think for a post-cataclysmic event, which I've personally always thought would take years, not days or weeks to "recover" from, future generations would learn to adapt according to what their parents teach them. Kind of like all generations have since the beginning of time (give or take), so it's really going to be up to the 1st generation that faces whatever the event is, to brace themselves.

In terms of what some others have posted here, there certainly seems to be a steady decline in a lot of things that we cherish that hopefully is leading people to teach their children accordingly. What I've seen decline: ability to deal with less and basic human values, among other things. Just couple those two with the potential hyper-inflation that Crash mentioned and you've got a trend rapidly accelerating into a crisis. But again, it's up to those first facing it to adjust to a new paradigm rather than just bury their heads in the sand.

[Pal334]

"I am concentrating on gaining knowledge, learning skills that I can use and pass on to others (kids, grand kids etc). "
I think Sourdough is on the right track. Preparing the young ones with some basic skills and knowledge that their "peers" dont have will go a long way to help them survive

[mountain mama]

I have a fool-proof long term plan.....I'm going to Alaska to stay with Sourdough

[BENESSE]

To me, quality of life is ultimately more important than "quantity".
If I had to seriously alter my way of life in constant preparation of every unforeseen calamity no matter how remote, it's not the kind of day-to-day living I would enjoy very much.
It's preparing to survive vs. living.
So given my resources, I try to strike a balance in all things that matter to me.

For some of you who are already closer to that way of life it's not a huge stretch.
You are merely fine-tuning your resources/skills but are not reinventing the wheel. I wonder how willing you'd be to make drastic changes in your life in order to survive longer. I'll bet not many.
And I'll go even further to stipulate that people like Sourdough or ycc would rather live shorter lives and stay where they are than move to NYC and add 10 years--if that was their only option.

Somehow in all these doomsday preparations, the word happiness doesn't often come up.