Nell, I'm feeling a little gloomy today.....
Consider:
The banks caused sub-prime due to their greed.
They want to be rewarded for risk but not take the losses required to compensate for the reward.
Thus now that they are forced to eat the sub-prime pie they have made, they are tightening lending to each other and any but the most pristine credit-worthy. Here is a scenario that I think is likely:
2010 January. Gas prices are at $8 per gallon due to Global peak in oil production and 20% inflation.
2010 June: Exporting nations have all figured out that peak has been reached. They start to hoard. Though global production drops by only 1% exports drop by 20%. That 20% reduction in exports has to be met by a drop in demand. Americans are the world's biggest importer therefore this falls on them. This requires 20% of American drivers to be unable to afford gasoline. Given that Americans are now squeezing each other out of the market, bidding rapidly forces prices up from $8 a gallon to $12 a gallon and $15 a gallon in some places.
2010 December. Another spike as another 20% are forced out of the market. Gas is now $20 a gallon.
Gas guzzling pickups and SUVs are simply abandoned at the side of the road. The unemployment rate is 25%.
The economy is in a tailspin. The most creditworthy of those who cannot afford gasoline try to apply for credit to lease the best gas mileage vehicles in a frantic attempt to continue driving. The banks refuse credit. The stories leak out into the press.
2010 December. The President goes on CNN and gives a state of the union address. It is now impossible to deny that peak oil is real. The president details the theory and the implications. He says America is now on a forced diet to get us off of oil and that emergency measures will be put into place to keep America running. He outlines a plan to build extra rail spurs into every American city, to upgrade the rail routes to provide for increased traffic. He outlines a plan to assist local delivery companies to convert their fleets to electric. He outlines a plan to upgrade the national electric grid and put hundreds of electric charging points in every city and retrofit gas stations to battery hot swap stations. He outlines a plan to assist vehicle manufacturers to upgrade capacity to produce millions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fully electric vehicles.
The total of the bill presented to congress is $2 trillion dollars.
It is unanimously approved in congress.
A tired America celebrates.
Within a month the bad news leaks out. The banks are refusing credit to the United States.
Almost immediately riots break out and huge crowds march on wall street. Bankers are thrown from the tops of buildings in wall street.
The national guard moves in to quell civil disorder.
There is a bloodbath as troops fire on the civilians.
The president declares martial law and the national guard moves to herd the crowds into FEMA camps.
America and the world begins a long winter of discontent.
