I am not an annalist. I can only tell you what I see and how I see it, from my little corner of the world.
I see: The world at this time is very dependent on oil. And that this will change! I do not see this in my lifetime. The dependency will continue for some time. Just like an old man clinging to life from his deathbed. It will grasp at every imagery straw of hope to continue its existence. Rather then pull the plug and letting it go, starting from that point to rebuild. The quick fix programs will continue for some time.
In my lifetime, I see a depression like no other in world history. It will come slow at first and build momentum. (It has already started). Things will not balance out in a few years, like past depressions but will take a decade or more. I see the overall population of the world dwindling by at least a third.
Annalists will scurry like rats on a shrinking ship, trying to explain why it is happening but none will be able to give a way repair the damage. Placing the blame game will become the(all)governments primary concern and fixing it will be placed on a back burner, unless it can be used to the advantage of their cause.
Let us say 25% (More like 10%)of the work force is producing all the food and goods for the other 75%.(more like 90%). As oil depletes it will cost more. The cost to ship goods will increase expediently? That cost will be passed on to the consumer. At some point the system will break like a rubber band stretched too far. An employer will not be able to sell his good at a cost that make up for the rising cost to produce and ship the goods. Business will decide that it is cost effective to not produce the goods and close. With no job the working force will not be able to buy the goods that are still offered. Thus causing other employers to close rather than take additional losses for good not sold.
This will add to the rising work force seeking jobs to support the exorbitant life styles they have enjoyed. Things like eating at least once a day may be beyond their ability to provide themselves. With the dwindling amount of goods available the cost of those goods will rise with demand. Once the demand is high enough the incentive to produce those goods will be come evident but the ability to pay for the goods will not be there.
When it is finally decided that it cannot be fixed. The first thing to go will be the social program. No longer will the government take responsibility for you living. They will stop most if not all wasted endeavors, at trying to keep the populace happy or healthy.
Things like: you have a right to an education and you have a right to eat (food stamps) will end. The right to a job and the right to free medical attention will have to go.
More and more of the populace will find themselves in a sinking boat with no other way out but to take what they have and try to make it do. Something most will not have the ability to do. Skills long forgotten will have to be reintroduced. The family garden and washing cloths in a tub and scrub board will have to be reintroduced in order to save money over time. Eating left overs and eating bland but nutritious foods. When was the last time all you ate for dinned was corn meal mush? People will have to teach themselves how to handle money again and how to save money, threw doing for them selves. It will no longer be cost effective for us to have someone else prepare our meals and clean our homes. Again a pair of shoes will have to be planned into a familys budget. A child will have to show that they deserve to attend school. School will no longer be a place to send the kids so Mom can go out to work. The baby sitter service from 8 to 4 will be over. If a child cannot keep up they will not be held back for a year or passed on merit. They will be sent home for mom to watch.
Excuses will not be tolerated. There is a whole generation of people that live within the excuse generation. I do not have to behave because I have ADS or I cannot do this because I have MS. No one will care. They will be too busy trying to survive. For once in the last 100 years the populace will not have to be responsible for you. You will have to take responsibility for yourself.
I feel so much as see that this is a time when Mother Nature will start weaning the weakest of the populace from the heard. This will come as pandemics (Diseases), starvation, natural selection and natural disasters. The earth will cleanse itself.
This will come in such a number that it will not be note worthy to the media. One guy freezing to death outside a park is blasted all over the news these days but if 20,000 freeze to death in a winter storm and no one cares because there will be another 200,000 before winter ends, then they become a static. This makes them 3rd page news.
I am 55 years old and for the last 30 years I have said I do not want to live past 65. 62 would be more acceptable. Kenny is 12 and has his life ahead of him. Kenny is a friends son. He comes here every day after school till his mom and dad get off work. I hope to be long gone and forgotten before things get really bad. Kenny will live it. His only hope is to learn how to do more with less.
I am teaching him about bushcraft. Knowing how to keep warm with a few sticks. Making a shelter out of natural, at hand, items. Knowing what plants are eatable. Knowing what to plant and when. I have been teaching him how to seek and acquire drinkable water. He is learning how to do more with less. He is learning the basics.
I cannot teach him to survive what I see is ahead. I can just give him a start in the right direction. The greatest tool we have is the ability to learn. What we know is a tool that can only be taken away from us threw death. This can be passed from one to another and carried on. All we have to do is be willing to teach it. That is to those willing to learn it.
I will stop here for now and see what I get for responses.
Don
