Is my savings account safe?

[bulrush]

I am concerned about the safety of my money in my credit union accounts. I learned that the FDIC insures banks, and credit unions are insured by SIPC, but ONLY if the CU pays the insurance premiums. So I have to call my CU to see if they are paying for SIPC.

My question is, is my money safe at my credit union and at Fidelity? Let me give you some details.

At my CU I have a savings account, checking account, and "insured money market account" (that's what the pamphlet says). The bulk of my money is in the insured money market account. Is my money safe there? Can I lose capital in this account due to foolish (but legal) business decisions by the CU?

(Hint, the savings account and MM account both have LOW interest, which indicates the CU is not desperate for funds, a good sign. Savings is 0.3%, MM is 1.1%.)

At Fidelity, I have my IRA in 3 accounts. 2 accounts are mutual funds, which will fluctuate due to market conditions. I get that part. But I also have a "Fidelity Cash Reserves" (FDRXX) account which is like a money market.

Is my cash reserves account safe from losing capital?
Is it safe from foolish business decisions by Fidelity which may be perfectly legal?

This has me pretty concerned, because the last time I asked my CU about this, they told me my accounts were safe, but they had nothing in writing and refused to put anything in writing (a big red flag there).

And so, since neither the CU nor Fidelity can be objective about this, I refuse to even ask them, hence I'm asking you guys who might have come across the answer to this.

[Rick]

For the Credit Union. Individuals are covered under NCUSIF and have the same limits as individuals covered by FDIC - $100,000 per individual and $250,000 per IRA. These amounts are essentially doubled for couples who hold individual and joint accounts at the same credit union.But there are some that are NOT members. You can check on your credit union to find out by going here:

http://www.ncua.gov/indexdata.html

As long as you don't exceed the thresholds your money is covered (insured) by the federal government. Some will tell you that is no guarantee but, to date, no one has lost any money in this down cycle. I don't see any risk as long as your money is insured. Those are extremely low rates of return, however, and well below the inflation rate, which means you are loosing money ever day. You might shop around for high rates. You won't find any savings or money market accounts that exceed the inflation rate (I don't think) but you can find plenty that will put you closer (higher rate of return)

As for Fidelity, investment in any vehicle has inherent risk. Mutual funds are no different. They have historically provided the best return with the least risk provided you are diversified in your holdings. That is, hold large cap, small cap, international, etc. That takes the edge off the fluctuations within an asset class. However, given the current volatility of today's markets there is no financial vehicle exempt from loss. Bonds and stocks are currently down and that's unprecedented! When you invest you have to be ready to lose money I don't care what you invest in since there is a chance it will lose value.

Your Fidelity Cash Reserve is not insured so, yes, you can loose your principal.

My advice to you is to talk to a financial planner. Ask your friends/family if they use a financial planner and find one that you are comfortable with. Read as much as you can on how to select a financial manager then follow their advice.

Hope that helps.

[Sourdough]

bulrush, you are right to be concerned. Some of us question "The FULL backing of the United States Government". We are in uncharted financial area. If the banking system breaks down completely, (which is still remote) even green cash in hand may not be safe. New money, different color, could be issued. The green stuff, becomes fire starter.

The banking system's of the world are step by step being nationalized. This next week will be very telling. They know what the problem is, they just don't like the cure.

The reality is that there is not much you can do short term, other than as Rick suggested. The whole banking system is based on faith, and faith in the system is being challenged, like never be for in history.

NOW...Can't we just talk about the important stuff......like survival knives....and yuppie rain gear.

[bulrush]

Why is my Fidelity IRA Cash Reserves account not insured?

What type of account can I put my Fidelity Cash Reserves in where I will not lose principal?

Should I put it in US bonds? Oops, nope. US Gov't can't even balance the budget or get a grip on this banking crisis.

Should I buy survival knives? :)

[Sourdough]

I think you answered your own question. You have three choices. A.) trust the Banking/Brokerage system, which includes the insurance company's. B.) Trust your government, or some other government's paper money system. C.) Invest in real things, Machinery, Land, Farms, Food, Fuel Tanks w/fuel, Gold, Books, Boots, Cords of firewood, Whiskey, Anything you can use, Anything real.

Go to Bloomberg.com and read what the people of Iceland are going through today.

[wareagle69]

ah good advice hopeak, if the banks fold then they cannot take away the things i have bought and owe so much on ha screw them i'm going to buy more stuff now

[bulrush]

Thanks Rick, and everyone. My CU is listed with the link above, so they must have the insurance. My take is that this is the FIRST real test of the banking system since the Great Depression.

With all the chicanery going on (with a small number of major US banks) that the US financial system is likely to fail this test.

[Sourdough]

You might be shocked to learn that it is the insurance companies, starting with AIG that are the root of the current credit/banking crises

[Rick]

I would like to see your source on that, Hopeak. I'm not challenging you, I'd just like to read it. I see (saw) the banking issue is a much different light and would be interested in seeing the insurance side of it.

[Sourdough]

Rick, I can't get stuff to up load, I don't think your going to find a publication from congress, stating so. But I sent one thing to you.

[Rick]

Thank you. I did receive it. I am aware of the credit default swaps and that's the very thing that caused the upheaval to the brokerage houses. Insurance by any other name doesn't have to be regulated. Only when you call it insurance are you forced to regulate. Go figure.

As for the credit/banking issues, I think it is deceitfully simple why it occurred. My theory only but here it is. During the 1960's/1970's there were only a handful of national banking concerns. The really big names like Wells Fargo, for example. Almost all banks were either private or community/regional concerns that had (more or less) a monopoly on the area's banking. There were savings and loans and credit unions but they only chipped away and banking's customer base with no real impact. Then came the decade of de-regulation. The 1980's, borne out of the recession and the whole supply side economics binge. Airlines, Trucking, Telecommunications, and Banking (just to name a few) were deregulated. There were also some landmark judicial decisions as a result of deregulation that opened the door for Savings and Loans as well as Credit Unions. Now they could legitimately deal with anyone on the same par as banks. So a riff began to open in the banking arena. The 1990's saw the growth of computers and internet just explode and suddently virtual banks were offering incredible rates of return because they didn't have the same overhead that brick and mortar banks did. The only way for banks to compete was to sell themselves to the big name corporations and find some way to stop the bleeding of customers to the other enterprises I mentioned. How do you do that? Offer higher rates? Nope. That's overhead and eats away at profitability. What you have to do is originate more loans. How do you do that? Lower your credit requirements. At the same time these external pressures were being applied you also had land developers knocking on the banker's door asking them to help their clients with mortgages. After all they had loans they had to pay the banks and the way to do that was sell the land/houses. So the banks had a vested interest in making the mortgages. And the war begins. Once I lower my standards to write more loans, you have to do the same thing in order to stay competative. And it doesn't take long before there really are no standards other than just asking and receiving.

That's my thoughts on the matter. I could well be wrong but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.....

[Sourdough]

Rick, are you interested in posting the artical.....? And did you get the story about a real man....?

[Sourdough]

I think it was fraud, and the scumbags should go to prison, and all the money should be returned. If it walks like a scumbag and slimes like a scumbag, the scumbags should be shot for treason against America

[Rick]

You know, I should have posted it and didn't even think about it. I deleted it after I read it. Shoot the URL over to me again and I'll post it.

No, I did not receive the real man article.

I do agree with you on the credit default swaps. It's just one more reason that stringent regulations should be in place when dealing with some one else's money.

For those that don't know and are curious (most probably don't even care) credit default swaps are a sort of insurance. Let's say I have a bad loan that I want The Federal Bank of Hopeak to buy. Now The CEO (David) of The Federal Bank of Hopeak is a shrewd guy and he doesn't really want to buy a bad debt from the National Bank of Rick even if I'm selling it to him for 60 cents on the dollar. True, he stands to make 40 cents of profit IF all the debts are paid. Sooooo I thow him a bit of enticement. I tell him I'll make up the difference on any defaulted loans. So he gets paid by 93% of the loans and I make up the other 7%. Sound like insurance? You bet. Here's the rub. Since we called it a credit default swap it isn't regulated and I don't have to have that 7% set aside to cover the defaults. Sound risky? Ask Lehman Brothers or Morgan Stanley how risky they are.

[Rick]

For everyone's benefit, here is a copy of the article Hopeak referenced on the insurance companies impact on banking.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/stansberry/oct072008.html

[sgtdraino]

The only way for banks to compete was to sell themselves to the big name corporations and find some way to stop the bleeding of customers to the other enterprises I mentioned. How do you do that? Offer higher rates? Nope. That's overhead and eats away at profitability. What you have to do is originate more loans. How do you do that? Lower your credit requirements. At the same time these external pressures were being applied you also had land developers knocking on the banker's door asking them to help their clients with mortgages. After all they had loans they had to pay the banks and the way to do that was sell the land/houses. So the banks had a vested interest in making the mortgages. And the war begins. Once I lower my standards to write more loans, you have to do the same thing in order to stay competative.

I only have a layman's understanding of this mess, but would like to add that I think government regulation had a bigger role to play in this than some people believe. The whole mess boils down to a lot of money lenders giving unwise loans to people who weren't likely to pay back the money. Now, ordinarily that is not something any institution would want to do. You're in the game to make money, and giving stupid loans is not going to make you money. As such, generally the free enterprise system is self-correcting. This whole mess seemed to really commence with the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two massive government-sponsored organizations who were specifically geared towards loans to low-income individuals. To a degree, this may have encouraged the sort of competition among other lending institutions that Rick is talking about. When those two institutions collapsed under the weight of all the bad loans, panic set in. Other institutions who had lowered their standards also began feeling effects, and at the same time all lending institutions immediately raised their standards for lending money, possibly overcompensating. But a lot of business is extremely reliant on regular loans for their day-to-day operations, because they simply don't have enough capital at hand to keep things running themselves. I have heard the airlines are a prime example of this, although I forget the specific logistics. Something about they need a loan in order to buy fuel and other stuff to fly around all the passengers they anticipate on having that month, but they won't have the capital to pay for those resources until the passengers come and buy tickets.

Thus overcompensating on credit standards ends up hurting a lot of day-to-day business operations, and other businesses start going under... all because the government was encouraging bad loans.

Learn more:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freddie_Mac

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fanny_may

[Sourdough]

The so called "Sub-Prime Loans", is not the problem it is the distraction that is being used to distract from the real problem. Derivatives are the problem, the sheer mass of derivatives, and the inter-woven web of "Counter-parties" to the contracts. No one, and I mean no one knows how many derivatives are out there. My real issue is with booking unearned profits, and giving them to officers as bonus's.

What if they had to mark to market price, and the value of all the pension funds dropped 63%, and those on pensions had there payments cut 50%.

[Rick]

I have to agree with Hopeak on derivatives. When you pick up a prospectus and it's 400-800 pages long something is terribly amiss. I doubt the mathematicians that developed the models even understand them.

Sgtdraino - You points are all very good. Car dealers are really good examples of business that need loans to operate. The local Chevy, Ford and Nissan dealers (and all the rest) all depend on loans to stock their inventory, which impacts the salesmen, the mechanics, and all their credit holders. Trickle down problems. Just as debilitating are the bank to bank loans (or lack thereof).

[sgtdraino]

Derivatives are the problem, the sheer mass of derivatives, and the inter-woven web of "Counter-parties" to the contracts. No one, and I mean no one knows how many derivatives are out there.

I don't really know much about derivatives or even what they are. Can you help explain what a derivative is and how it works, in terms a layman can understand?

[Sourdough]

That which is "derived" from something. Your a cop, so take a sheet of paper and write, all arrest will result in convictions. Now assign a value say 75,million dollars, now sell it to the teachers pension retirement fund for face value 75,million. Now go to your check book enter 75,million deposited, pay the guy who sold it, 3,million bonus.

If the Teachers pension fund balks, say OK, I'll get the L.A. public employees pension fund to guarantee it. Now take a sheet of paper write, guarantee blah, blah, blah assign a value 50, million sell it, book the money as current quarter profit, and just keep going. Over and over. Tomorrow you write one that the Mississippi River will flood next spring, price it sell it, book the profit.

Think I am B.S.ing you. There is nothing there, and it gets worse, the brokerage house sets up 20 different hedge funds, loans each hedge fund 300,million dollars seed money. the next day writes twenty derivatives contracts, and sells them to said hedge fund. book the 100% profit. The hedge fund discounts the contract and sells it books profit.

Start to see why, Company's claim a "BOOK" value of there stock is $192.00 per share on Friday. And Sunday it is taken over by the government. And it's true value is NEGATIVE Billions of dollars.

Hard to believe......start studying it.

It get's worse. you take the derivitive and divide it into parts, say 25 parts, call them trenches, sell them to twenty-five different pension funds, hedge funds, or banks (All over the world) the hedge fund bundles up 100 different trenches and sells them to a public pension fund. Here is the SNOT-BALL everyone on both sides is a party and a counter-party to the same contract. You retirement fund could be holding some part of "BOTH" sides of a contract. The other parties or counter-parties are all over the world. All this is unregulated, and there is no way to but a value on the contracts, (Called: "Mark to Market" price). Everyone knows it will blow up someday. And when AIG went down they were counter party to thousands maybe millions of derivitives contracts, This is why no one wanted Lehman Bros. even for free, or even if the government kicked in 100Billion dollars, know one knows what they are counter-party to.

YES, IT GETS WORSE......Study level Two and Level Three assets and how they are reported. And if you have any losses just sell them to one of your company's off shore at a huge profit.

It gets worse: The hedge fund you seeded 300, million takes the money to Japan, converts to Yen, puts up the 300, million as security for 30, billion dollar load (in Yen) moves the 30, billion to New Zealand where it get's 8.4 % interest on the 30, billion. Use's that deposit as security to borrow 200, billion Dollars, which it speculates on Oil futures, and shorts Fanny Ma and Freddy Mac stock. All the time trying to keep the leverage at 60 to one, but sometimes it gets up to 300 to one leverage. No worries, it is not their money, it is some pension funds money. And they get a percentage of the winnings, but eat none of the losses.

Warren Buffet said, "Derivitives are a financial weapon of mass destruction".

It gets worse:.....? to be continued

[Rick]

I'm not certain it can be explained in layman terms. But.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_security

[bulrush]

The whole mess boils down to a lot of money lenders giving unwise loans to people who weren't likely to pay back the money...

True.

You're in the game to make money, and giving stupid loans is not going to make you money.

Sort of. Their current motive for giving "stupid" loans is to increase short term profits, like on quarterly reports. However this is bad for long term profits.

[Rick]

The other side of the coin is retail sales. If you've noticed, many stores, like Wal-Mart, have already begun to display Christmas sales. That's something that, historically, didn't occur until Thanksgiving. And Christmas adds are already running on TV (It's a small box with pictures and sound, Hopeak). Given the state of the economy, I think retailers can expect a pretty bleak shopping season this year and that, undoubtedly, will have a negative affect on the economy.

[Madrox]

Wow good point Rick. I noticed places locally (ACE hardware for one) already putting up Christmas stuff but didn't even realize how early it is. Usually around here they go up a week or so before Thanksgiving, not the middle of October.

[crashdive123]

Yep - going up here too. About the same time as last year though. Kind of weird to walk into a store and see Halloween, Thanks Giving and Christmas decorations all on sale at the same time.

[Sourdough]

No Christmas stuff around here, Some Hemlocks trees, does that count.......????

[bulrush]

Rick, only stores that don't discount their products to move them will have dismal sales. Many stores will not discount their products this year. The stores that do, will do better than the ones that don't.

Even though the banks allowed a big segment of people to purchase more house than they could afford, there are still people out there willing to spend SOME money, if they see good deals.

If the economy is in the pooper, I want to see deep discounts or I don't buy anything. I generally don't buy a lot of stuff. But when prices go down, I start buying more (consumer products) than I usually do.

[Sourdough]

I like to do my fair share for the economy, I bought some groceries (9) Weeks ago. Now I am out of vanilla flavored creamer, the shakes are starting. If I shop next week, I won't have to go to the massive city again till next year.

[Sourdough]

Sarky, See post # 20, Not much has change here.......

[Ole WV Coot]

Prospectus, now how many of us read that stuff? I get dazzled or baffled with all of it. I now own one stock(GE) and as higher interest CDs mature they go into cash in the mattress. FDIC sounds good if you have your $$ spread around, read the fine print and see just how many YEARS they can take to pay you back, if it actually will. I am well diversified in mutuals but way, way down. I haven't taken a dividend in over a year and I may shoot my broker for free room & board unless WV brings back the death penalty. Soon I will be broke enough to buy a nice estate, new vehicles, free health insurance and get a nice govt check each month all on a dollar down.

[mcfd45]

Here is my take on the situation.
1: the great depression (GD) was just a beta test for the greatest depression. It also got us into this mess. Prior to the GD the most you saw of the federal government was a serviceman on leave. Now we have SS, FDIC, SEC, numerous other sgencies, and we were taken off the gold standard. This gave rise to big government and the notion that the government could regulate private industries. We cannot continue to provide SS, medicare/caid, HUD, DOD, FDA, etc without borrowing money.

2: We have borrowed over 11 trillion dollars with no plan to pay it off. We will eventually go broke. I await the day when the US defaults on its loans. One day the world will say no more to our requests.

3: One of the only ways we could pay off our debt is to run the printing presses. This would inflate the dollar to zimbabwe like levels. This would cause a run on the banks similar to the GD, but with a new catch. The FDIC insures our deposits so we would have to print even more money.

So I am sure your money is safe, the question is will it be worth anything by the time you need to retire. If you saved up 500K through 401k, IRA, mutual funds, etc and it won't be able to buy a loaf of bread can you say it was a wise investment?

[Rick]

I would suggest the national debt was brought about more by earmarks than Medicare/Medicaid or SS (which, by the way had a surplus at one time not too long ago).


If you saved up 500K through 401k, IRA, mutual funds, etc and it won't be able to buy a loaf of bread can you say it was a wise investment?

Well, yeah. How else are you going to buy that load of bread? Duh!

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