Bragg's Doomometer

[BraggSurvivor]

As most of you know, my doomometer has gone more doomy over the last six months.

Why?

I think at a minimum we're guaranteed a spell of hyperinflation.
That alone is not going to be pretty.

Worse. I'm now pretty convinced that we're simply not going to be able to avoid a war with Iran. The powers that be want it so badly it's going to happen.

Quite frankly though, the US military could probably destroy Iran militarily that means our world as we know it comes to an end.
It likely means 4% of the world's oil (Iran) is offline for at least a decade and possibly as much as 25% of the world's oil will be offline during the conflict.

We will get to $10 a gallon soon enough but if we make war with Iran it will cause $6-$15 a gallon overnight.

THEN combine that shiitstorm with hyperinflation.

Can you imagine what that would be like?
I shudder to think.

Your thought? Possibility?

[rebel]

Yes. Good. In past confrontations only the ruthless won when they returned the brutality.

So, in my Machiavellian sense of right and wrong..."make grandma scream". Then it will end.

[Sam Reeves]

As most of you know, my doomometer has gone more doomy over the last six months.

Why?

I think at a minimum we're guaranteed a spell of hyperinflation.
That alone is not going to be pretty. Not to mention Americans face being underbid by immigrant workers who will work for peanuts. Meanwhile they put a strain on our social services while they learn to adjust to our laws or we learn to assimilate to THEIR culture. Which ever comes first.


Worse. I'm now pretty convinced that we're simply not going to be able to avoid a war with Iran. The powers that be want it so badly it's going to happen. Personally I believe alto of our problems would be solved if Israel and Iran just nuked each other. Israel is a nation of traitors and Iran is a nation of Idiots. We should just turn our backs and let the fur fly for awhile.


Quite frankly though, the US military could probably destroy Iran militarily that means our world as we know it comes to an end. I'm not sure the U.S. can whip Iran without losing it's military superiority.

It likely means 4% of the world's oil (Iran) is offline for at least a decade and possibly as much as 25% of the world's oil will be offline during the conflict. I'm not sure this conflict will ever have a happy ending. If the house to house fighting in Iraq is bad what will it be like in Iran? :(


We will get to $10 a gallon soon enough but if we make war with Iran it will cause $6-$15 a gallon overnight.
I think we will be paying $6-$7 for gas in a year or two anyway due to domestic issues. We got to have some way of getting the funds to feed the world's tired, cold and hungry.

[Chicago Dan]

Despite the high cost of living, have you noticed how it remains so popular?

[dragonjimm]

youve got some good points but i wonder what china and north korea will be doing during all this.:confused:


you also have to remember that one reason for the hike in oil prices is third world countries now have a use for it as they try to increase their own industries. with that much oil outta of production, oil will go through the highest bidder so $10 a gallon may be cheap :eek:

[Sourdough]

Bragg, I have invested all my money in cheap TEQUILA, cheap BEER, expensive wives, and Rock River AR-15's; if the end is near.......I say bring it on.......I am ready to rock and roll. (Please hurry there are only six cases of Jose Cuervo left).

One life is enough, if you do it right..............:eek:

[Teotwawki]

http://www.nspiredgames.com/bsDoom.jpg

[Rick]

Early on, I questioned whether Iraq might be a staging for both Iran and Syria. Now, I'm convinced it is not.

1. The ability to sustain a third front just isn't there. We may have the desire but not the ability.

2. Politically, we could not take on Iran. Not with elections only months away.

[Teotwawki]

Agree with Rick.

Politically, a U. S. strike on Iran is probably not doable.

More likely would be an Israeli strike. If that happens it will happen in June. Iran's rainy season begins in July and lasts until September - makes an accurate strike more difficult from what I have read. I believe some intelligence estimates that September will be too late to prevent Iran from achieving their nuclear weapons goal. Plus, if this comes from Israel, U. S. politics plays in as well... right now they would probably get at least a back room nod... after the election who knows.

If something happens re Iran, I think it will be this month and the strike will come from Israel. Wouldn't be the first time.

[Beo]

Quite frankly though, the US military could probably destroy Iran militarily that means our world as we know it comes to an end.
It likely means 4% of the world's oil (Iran) is offline for at least a decade and possibly as much as 25% of the world's oil will be offline during the conflict.
We will get to $10 a gallon soon enough but if we make war with Iran it will cause $6-$15 a gallon overnight.

Not if we take the oil once we kick their azz, problem is we don't take the spoils of war, my frame of mind is "To the victor go the spoils" and then have the navy escort those tankers back here.

[Rick]

I thought it would have been a nice gesture if Iraq had supplied us with oil to offset the course of liberating the country. Then again, I'm an idealist.

[bulrush]

http://www.nspiredgames.com/bsDoom.jpg

Hilarious Teotwaki!

Exactly why do the "Powers What Is" want to go to war with Iran? Oh, that nuclear power station rumor? I thought the rumor about Iraq getting weapons-grade uranium was found to also be a (forged) rumor?

Isn't all of Iran's saber rattling just...saber rattling? It doesn't mean anything. Just how many times have they invaded a sovereign country or taken military action against another country. All the rumors of Iran support extremist groups in Iraq, aren't they just rumors?

[crashdive123]

So let me see if I understand. Let's say you've been out hiking in the woods. You decide to set up camp for a couple of days and do a little hunting. You grab your favorite rifle, and off you go. You run into a guy in the woods - he seems pleasant enough. You say hello. He says "I'm going to kill you and take all of your stuff." So that's what? Sabre rattling? Doesn't mean anything? Good luck with that. When somebody tells me they are or are not going to do something, I tend to believe them.

[trax]

Despite the high cost of living, have you noticed how it remains so popular?

Well, in my case, I can't afford to die until I'm 108 years old, unless I want to leave my debtload to my grandchildren (smile kids, Poppa's got something for you in his will!)

[Teotwawki]

Hilarious Teotwaki!

Thanks


Exactly why do the "Powers What Is" want to go to war with Iran? Oh, that nuclear power station rumor? I thought the rumor about Iraq getting weapons-grade uranium was found to also be a (forged) rumor?

The nuclear power station is not a rumor - Iran does not deny that they have a nuclear enrichment program.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/42167000/jpg/_42167814_iranplant_arak_afp203.jpg

The only thing in dispute - Iran maintains that it is for civil nuclear power. The "powers what is" I suppose must be worried that the enrichment is for production of nuclear bombs. Seems a legitimate concern to me.

"Israel is not going to wait until the first nuclear bomb is going to be dropped on Israel." - Avi Dichter, Israeli Minister for Public Security

Israel has said a strike on Iran will be "unavoidable" if the Islamic regime continues to press ahead with alleged plans for building an atom-bomb. June 6, 2008 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/2088964/Israel-threatens-to-strike-Iran's-nuclear-plans.html)

Some statements of Ahmadinejad:

“I warn you to abandon the filthy Zionist entity, which has reached the end of the line.”

“The ones who still support the criminal Zionists should know that the occupiers’ days are numbered.”

I could gather more but Ahmadinejad has stated over and over his desire to wipe Israel from the face of the earth.


Isn't all of Iran's saber rattling just...saber rattling? It doesn't mean anything. Just how many times have they invaded a sovereign country or taken military action against another country.

Saber rattling? Maybe it is, maybe it isn't.


Military action in which Iran has been involved. (http://www.zum.de/whkmla/military/centrasia/milxiran.html)

State sponsored terrorism? Remember the hostage crisis?


All the rumors of Iran support extremist groups in Iraq, aren't they just rumors?

Don't know 'bout that one.

---

I wasn't saying I was a proponent of a strike against Iran (wasn't saying I'm not either). Just giving an little input relevant to the thread.

---
Some folks think a friendly chat will make all better.

[Sam Reeves]

Meanwhile Israel has more nukes than the whole UK.

Why does Israel need to be the only Middle Eastern nation with freaking nukes?

[crashdive123]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say because every other Middle Eastern nation says they want to wipe them off the face of the earth. Don't know for sure, but that would be my guess.

[wareagle69]

personally i nominate you as the number one troll here.

[crashdive123]

Who me????

[wareagle69]

nope BS.....

[Rick]

Folks tend to forget that the Persian Empire (that's known as Iran today) was one of the most powerful empires in the world. They still have visions of returning to that grandeur. According to 2006 numbers, they have the 8th largest army in the world with 545,000 active service troops, 350,000 reserve troops and 11,390,000 paramilitary troops for a whopping total of 12,285,000 trained and ready troops. Although the U.S. has a much larger active and reserve force we can only mobilize 2.9 million if we moved EVERYONE to Iran. And guess what? The Iranians are already there. They don't have to go anywhere.

12.2 million vs. 2.9 million. It wouldn't be saber rattling if I ruled the country with those kind of odds.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troops

Now, I just have to put this in perspective:

http://www.themadpigeon.com/photos/uncategorized/finger_1.jpg

[Teotwawki]

Pffffffttttt......

[crashdive123]

*sniff, sniff* yuck!

[Rick]

Knock knock.

[crashdive123]

I'll bite ..... Who's there?

[Teotwawki]

That is funny!

Everybody picks on the poor wabbit - dang pesky wolves!

[Rick]

Smell mop.

[crashdive123]

Teotwawki - go ahead, it's all yours.:D:D

[Teotwawki]

http://www.nspiredgames.com/smellMop.jpg

[crashdive123]

note to self - gotta get and learn how to use photoshop.

[Rick]

I gotta hand it to Beo. That was pretty funny. So's the pic!!!

[BraggSurvivor]

personally i nominate you as the number one troll here.

WE, your a funny little plumber.....you have know idea. Go back to your bunker and behave yourself.

[Ridge Wolf]

From the Jerusalem Post last Friday: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1212659672978&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[Sam Reeves]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say because every other Middle Eastern nation says they want to wipe them off the face of the earth. Don't know for sure, but that would be my guess.

http://ifamericansonlyknew.com

So what is your favorite thing about our little false ally Israel?

[Rick]

Well, I think you picked the wrong author to back up your position. Alison Weir has been to the Middle East once and spent a whopping 30 days there. That doesn't make her an authority on the subject in my book (one way or the other).

[bulrush]

12.2 million vs. 2.9 million. It wouldn't be saber rattling if I ruled the country with those kind of odds.
Rick, the odds of winning a military conflict are not based on numbers alone. However, I think you implied that the Iranians THINK they have more military power than they actually do simply because of numbers.

What counts is the EFFECTIVENESS of those numbers. How well trained are the troops? How well supplied are they? How much actual combat experience do they have?

Remember in WW2 when Hitler started making garrisons of old men and kids? Some of the kids were 12 years old (or at least appeared to be 12 by the Allied soldiers). They were untrained. They were simply handed a gun and uniform and told to go to a certain place and defend it. There is a big difference between an untrained 12 year old, and a very experienced, well-trained US solider. Just because a 12 year old can pull the trigger doesn't mean they can hit their target, or not break lines under pressure. It also doesn't mean they know how to clean a gun if it jams.

Also recall that in WW2 Hitler really stretched ALL his fronts. Supplies had trouble getting to Russia and more distant areas. While the German troops had ammo and food, they were tough opponents. As soon as they ran out of something (like the tank battallions were low on gas in Africa) the Allies began to beat them roundly.

Another thing to consider is that, I'm sure, many countries overstate their active troops so they appear more powerful than they are. So they include old men and boys in that number. So in fact the actual number of effective, trained troops is quite a bit lower than the stated amount.

Here's the population breakdown of Iran:
age 15-64 years: 72.3% (male 24,090,976/female 23,522,861)
Total population: 65 million

So Iran is saying they have half their males age 15-64 classified as "active military"? Sounds a little high to me.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html

[Rick]

Iran is about three times larger than Iraq. Here's a situation that I think pure numbers weigh heavily in their favor. What is the strongest force we could put in Iran? Pick any number but without a draft and without stripping other regions bare of support you aren't going to have 500,000.

The Chinese were pretty darned effective in Korea with just throwing bodies at us. A lot of them were armed with sticks and ladders to climb over the bodies.

You are correct that many other factors have to be considered. Our advanced munitions and aircraft would compensate for a lot. But if I were sitting on the throne in that country I don't think I'd be too quick about backing down from the U.S. I'm just saying I understand all his bravado. I don't agree with it but he does yap from a position of some power.

[1stcavmp77]

is it just me or is sam starting to come off slightly anti-semitic

[Rick]

Naah. He's just anti anything not Sam.:D

[trax]

is it just me or is sam starting to come off slightly anti-semitic

Don't expect he'll be running for office in Tel Aviv any time soon....:rolleyes:

[Sam Reeves]

is it just me or is sam coming off a little anti-semitic


Naah. He's just anti anything not Sam.:D

If I said rap music sticks and the ghettos in New York are dumps would that be anti-Afroism? :rolleyes:

I like to look both ways before I cross the street since there is always two sides to every story.

Why in the world would Iran threaten to bomb Israel?:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,351431,00.html

[Sam Reeves]

Don't expect he'll be running for office in Tel Aviv any time soon....:rolleyes:

Not that I would want to but ironically since Israel is a defacto national socialist state with it's "1948 law of return" policy I would be denied citizenship solely based on my race.

[Sam Reeves]

is it just me or is sam starting to come off slightly anti-semitic

More anti-semitics:

http://www.gtr5.com/index.html

In my opinion Israel is the little yapping dog that nips at everybody's heel but nobody has kicked the crap out of it yet because it would piss off their sweet Aunt Suzie.

People in the Middle East have been squabbling for thousands of years because that is what they do. I wish we would just leave them alone and worry about our own problems.

No matter who owns the oil it will still find it's way into the global market.

[wareagle69]

in my opinon this is all politics and has no buisness here rick i think you should close this thread..

[Sam Reeves]

Personally I nominate you as the biggest crybaby here.

[trax]

Personally, I wonder how you can keep claiming to look at both sides of the street with your head so far up your a$$. I think you're a sad and bitter man. But that's just me personally.

[Sam Reeves]

Personally, I wonder how you can keep claiming to look at both sides of the street with your head so far up your a$$. I think you're a sad and bitter man. But that's just me personally.

Personally I think y'all hate looking at reality vs. propaganda. Sad and bitter? Maybe a little disgusted with the big picture and concerned with how it will effect my kids future.

[Rick]

Sam, what are we to do with you? So many folks tell you the world is round and you come right back and say it's flat.

I would appreciate it if you would step away from the political arena a bit or find some nice anti something web site that sympathizes with whatever it is you stand for . This is supposed to be a wilderness survival web site and I doubt too many folks are concerned with your slightly myopic and overtly biased views on Israel or the ghetto or anything else non Sam.

Yes, you have my permission to bash me if it will make you feel better.

[Sam Reeves]

Sam, what are we to do with you? So many folks tell you the world is round and you come right back and say it's flat.I'm just trying to figure out who told y'all the world was square. Me thinks you weekend warriors use the woods to escape politics the a drunk uses alcohol to escape TDW so I reckon I should respect yer wishes.


I would appreciate it if you would step away from the political arena a bit or find some nice anti something web site that sympathizes with whatever it is you stand for . This is supposed to be a wilderness survival web site and I doubt too many folks are concerned with your slightly myopic and overtly biased views on Israel or the ghetto or anything else non Sam. I'm just a pro-American politically incorrect redneck. I'm actually unbiased but since I don't support the normal screwed up party line y'all see me as biased. Therefore you seem to think I think the world is flat. Personally I think the things (politics) that effect everybody should be discussed in a group as men like it always has but if it gets in the way of somebody's opinion of which way to build a fire or how to fold a sleeping bag then I guess I should avoid such threads.


Yes, you have my permission to bash me if it will make you feel better.I doubt the woods is where you go to find knowledge. It's where you go to find yourself. If you can do that without losing yourself to the woods everything starts to become a lot clearer. If I was to bash you I honestly believe you would take it as an insult rather than understanding what I was really trying to say. Have fun in Freetraxistan.

[crashdive123]

Now THAT was funny.

[Rick]

That's all cool. You just forgot that this is a wilderness forum not a political arena. AND (here's the biggy) politics is not allowed on the forum. So you can wax poetic about politics all you want just not here.

Surprisingly, I find both in the woods. I actually learn something darn near every time I go and it does have a tendency to ground me (no pun intended).

[Sam Reeves]

Now THAT was funny.

If you have a problem with me send me a PM. ;)

[crashdive123]

OK, It's on the way.

[Sam Reeves]

That's all cool. You just forgot that this is a wilderness forum not a political arena. AND (here's the biggy) politics is not allowed on the forum. So you can wax poetic about politics all you want just not here. Blah, blah. I just follow the course of the conversation. It's not like I'm starting threads about Tim Russert...


Surprisingly, I find both in the woods. I actually learn something darn near every time I go and it does have a tendency to ground me (no pun intended).I'm glad folks are still interested in the outdoors. We're probably a dying breed. (oops more politics)

[wareagle69]

now i think you should just ban him
and i can live with any insult you sling at me, i was trianed far to well to let insults bother me, but you bring nothing to this forum and try to instigate everyone here aka a troll and i think appropriate action should be taken or i could just call 9 wah wah if it makes you happy

[Sam Reeves]

now i think you should just ban him
and i can live with any insult you sling at me, i was trianed far to well to let insults bother me, but you bring nothing to this forum and try to instigate everyone here aka a troll and i think appropriate action should be taken or i could just call 9 wah wah if it makes you happy

http://www.wilderness-survival.net/forums/showthread.php?p=55691&#post=14

[Flavor Bear]

http://www.wilderness-survival.net/forums/showthread.php?p=55691&#post=14
Wicked callout, man. No way he was joking when he said that.

[NS0201]

Folks tend to forget that the Persian Empire (that's known as Iran today) was one of the most powerful empires in the world. They still have visions of returning to that grandeur. According to 2006 numbers, they have the 8th largest army in the world with 545,000 active service troops, 350,000 reserve troops and 11,390,000 paramilitary troops for a whopping total of 12,285,000 trained and ready troops. Although the U.S. has a much larger active and reserve force we can only mobilize 2.9 million if we moved EVERYONE to Iran. And guess what? The Iranians are already there. They don't have to go anywhere.

12.2 million vs. 2.9 million. It wouldn't be saber rattling if I ruled the country with those kind of odds.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troops

Now, I just have to put this in perspective:

http://www.themadpigeon.com/photos/uncategorized/finger_1.jpg



But remeber that alexander the great was out numbered 1 mill to 45,000 and still won. Size doesn't matter. If you can think out how your gonna play the game....

[Superman44]

Why isn't the Bush family in any trouble, at all, over the invasion of Iraq and permenantly destroying the lives of Iraqi's? The rich are addicted with oil so much, maybe everyone should take a step back from everything concerning oil, and start seriously looking towards other means of living life..

One way to do it would be to pick one Gas Station, for instance, Esso. Everyone stop going to Esso, and Esso will have to lower their prices to sell. Why don't the people come together and brainstorm ideas to fix things.

How do you make most of the population all brainwashed by the media, to somehow snap out of it, and to start thinking for themselves, and doing whats right? When are we as a civilization going to Wake up, and move into this New Age soon approaching?

[Rick]

Blah Blah, huh? Well, you got a wheel barrow full. I'll give you that. Just remember. Bans can come without warnings.

[Alpine_Sapper]

Why isn't the Bush family in any trouble, at all, over the invasion of Iraq and permenantly destroying the lives of Iraqi's?

How do you make most of the population all brainwashed by the media, to somehow snap out of it, and to start thinking for themselves, and doing whats right? When are we as a civilization going to Wake up, and move into this New Age soon approaching?

lol...Some people, especially those that still hold antiquated views about people being better than another based on gender, race, religion, etc.etc. will be dragged kicking and screaming. but even then, it'd take more beating than any of us have the patience for to actually knock some sense through the thick skull into the tiny pea-sized brain. Of course, a pneumatic sledge might make the job a whole lot more fun...and interesting.

Now, I think you should be on the recieving end of that sledge if you think bush is destroying the lives of Iraqi's. We liberated them from a totalitarianist regime. Sure, we're screwing the pooch on the end game, but hey, no body's perfect, and 50 years of occupation by the US Military can do wonderful things to a country's economy. The Iraqi's can stop destroying their own lives when they find a leader strong enough to wipe out all the little piss-ant bigot's who think they're better than the infidel heathen dog and actually take a stand for something other than his 71 virgin boyfriends.

Here's an idea...How about hooking a lie detector up to an actuator rigged up to the trigger of a M2. Put each person in front of the barrel, and start showing them photo's of women, other nationalites, etc. etc. Anytime the meter jumps (indicating they have an issue with the person based simply on one of the prevously mentioned criteria), the weapon fires. Simple. It'd cost about $10 a person that failed (for ammo) and we'd gain the loss of what is ultimately a skid mark in the tighty whities of society.

Oops, did I say whitey?

[Flavor Bear]

We liberated them from a totalitarianist regime.

Which would be such a great thing if at any point that was the actual goal in invading the country.

[Rick]

I should sticky this thread as an example of what happens when politics get tossed about.

Closed.