So, how ‘bout that carona virus?

[rebel]

Can’t believe this subject hasn’t been brought up. This stuff is infecting more everyday. I’ve read the mortality rate was 2% when we first heard about it. Now I’m reading 12-19% depending on where you read about it. I’ve also read that it mostly kills the elderly and those with precondition health conditions like diabetes. I’ve read that it is affecting those who have type A- blood more than others. They’re saying you could be asymptomatic for 21-24 days. Some are prepping for a quarantine. Some say it was an engineered virus. What are y’all hearing and doing? 🙉🙈🙊

[Rick]

The annual flu is still way more dangerous at this point. In the U.S. alone, the flu is responsible for 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths according the CDC. It has caused over 19 million illnesses. That's just in the U.S. Get your flu shot!

[rebel]

Here’s a chart that maps the growth

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[madmax]

The first year I taught kindergarten I was sick the whole year. I started getting my flu shot and hep vac. Still do. So far nothing will help against the corona flu. But there's several teams working on it...until it mutates. I have a beard. The N95 mask doesn't really block the virus and I'd have to shave and get fit for a haz mat mask. Then walk around in it when I go out. Then disinfect everything when I get home. Then disinfect my wife when she gets home from school. And make her stop carpooling. Our plan is handwashing. Limited trips to stores. And like everybody should already be doing... prep for a bug in until it dies off. If you're in hurricane or blizzard territory, it's not that big of a jump from what you're already doing.

[WolfVanZandt]

First, I no longer believe anything in the news. I remember a bunch of scares (Legionnaires, West Nile, several flus) that fizzled out quickly. And Rick's right...the flu is scarier. Cars are definitely scarier.

Evidently, bodies can deal with this one (that's what "kills the elderly and people with suppressed immune systems" means). The way to prep is to maintain your general health.

[rebel]

I hear ya but, when has there been quarantine and cancelled flights for the every year flu ? You might be right. Time will tell.

[madmax]

We are stocking up on Clorox wipes.

[Rick]

Don't use those in the bathroom. Just sayin'....

[madmax]

That mistake has been made by both of us in the house... once.

[crashdive123]

There's a joke in there about anal bleaching..........butt, I'll back out of this gracefully.

[madmax]

Now see Mr. Passive Aggressive. You provoke, then play the victim. Just wait. My biting sarcasm will persevere this next camp.

[madmax]

BTW. I can't see back there and don't really care what color it is. How PC is that,

[madmax]

We've really stooped low. From Novel Corona virus to anal bleaching? I blame it on the submariner.

[rebel]

I’m not advocating for this guy but if his hypothesis is true...
Take a read:
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/america-this-is-why-you-need-to-prepare-right-now-over-coronavirus-quarantine-no-trucking

[Rick]

Dang it! A virus that spreads by urination. I just have to stay away from people that go around peeing on other people and I should be okay. As for the poopers of the world. I can honestly say that once my kids were house broken I've never been pooped on so I'm good to go there as well. :thumbup1:

[rebel]

I don’t know if he isn’t the guy referred to as doomer Doug. I like reading the comments section in alt news.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

The first year I taught kindergarten .....

I stopped worrying about any type of illness when I read this....

I think I just figured out who created "Florida Man" though....


Alan

[crashdive123]

We've really stooped low. From Novel Corona virus to anal bleaching? I blame it on the submariner.

Hey, I'm not the one that uses Clorox wipes as tp.

[Rick]

Well, it does give new meaning to the phrase, "shines like a dime in a goats..." you know.

[rebel]

More predictions

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/

[crashdive123]

I certainly don't know any more than what I read about this. One of the problems is that the information that the Chinese government releases is suspect at best and lies at worst. It seems that all of the "whistle blowers" end up dead. The doc that originally let the world know of the existence of the Coronavirus is dead. Another doc that reported the Chinese government was telling the world that there were less than 2,000 cases stated that there were well over 90,000 (no telling where the real number is now). She has not been seen since her public statements.

I know that our government and docs are doing what they can to ensure it does not spread. We all need to do our part as well.

[rebel]

Prep and awareness. Same for a hike. It’s who we are. Crash, if you and the Mrs. want to go rural, y’all can come here.

[rebel]

NoKo has zero. Yea right. What a bunch of dingdongs

[Fixit]

Well I keep an eye on it but not to concerned yet. By my numbers death rate is more like 12% than 2%. They take cases verse deaths and I take recovered verses deaths .

The infection rate is high 1 person infects 3 to 5 others depending on who's numbers you use . Best plan from my view is to be ready to bug in and I'm always ready to do that.

[LowKey]

Not worried. But prepared to bug in. Mostly. Been slowly refilling stock things that somehow got low, but under control.

[kyratshooter]

You have to also look at the timing of this "plague".

It has resulted in travel restrictions world wide, stock market fluctuations world wide, and general fear which has kept people at home and isolated, even though its impact has been almost zero outside China itself and not that hard there. With a population of 1.5 billion they have more deaths daily from people falling off ladders than this virus.

It is a big deal in Europe right now and causing a new upsurge in the use of the old survival forums that had just about died over there. Those folks are not prepared for anything and believe everything the media of any kind throws their way.

Last week there was a headline on Sky News that a "super carrier" had brought in new infection and doubled the number of cases hitting the NHS. They were up to 4! Yes, their cases doubled in one day, up to four people! They have a population of 60 million, and are known for their world wide business travels. People going to china daily, and coming back, and they have only 4 cases.

Several hundred Brits have died from the "normal" flu during the same period. No one raises an eyebrow. Over there flu shots are free and lots of people refuse to take them.

Amazingly all this restriction, fluctuation and concern occurred starting on the day GB went into Brixit, which was to have problems with GUESS WHAT?? travel restrictions, stock market fluctuations and free movement into places that no longer had reciprocal agreements outside the EU treaties.

It has also occurred at the height of the traditional "slow season" in consumer buying, January and February. This did not occur untill the Christmas buying season was over. And you must also note that there have been no restrictions on goods shipped to anywhere from China, where they were probably packed by "infected or exposed" package handlers. They have stopped "infected people" but let the flow of goods continue.

As Europe settles into their new normal this "pandemic" will fade into a nonevent.

[LowKey]

There has definitely been a slow-down in export goods from China. Whether that is due to export restrictions, or workers unable to show up for work due to lock-downs is unknown. Some of our suppliers have been sourcing elsewhere (We buy literally miles of LED tape.) A friend of mine who works for an electronics developer is having trouble with PCB board parts.

Had a laugh this morning at the grocery store tabloid's front page splash touting this virus as engineered by China to send to the US.

[WolfVanZandt]

It's less deadly than the flu but since it's more transmissible it will probably end up infecting a third of the world's population and killing more than the flu. They're talking about having a cold, flu, and Corona season. If you "prep" for the flu, you might want to prep for this. Otherwise....eh

[Cliff Booth]

It's less deadly than the flu but since it's more transmissible it will probably end up infecting a third of the world's population and killing more than the flu. They're talking about having a cold, flu, and Corona season. If you "prep" for the flu, you might want to prep for this. Otherwise....eh

Less deadly than the flu doesn’t seem accurate. Flu isn’t killing 2.2% like China is reporting (and you have to strongly suspect they are under-reporting). Flu is about 0.1% or less. We’ll probably get a better idea of the death rate by observing Italy over the next few weeks. Plus, the disease has been spreading pretty rapidly, but taking a long time to kill anyone. So the way they are calculating death rate is by total number of known cases compared to total deaths. So all those new diagnoses that haven’t had time to really feel the effects are being counted as not dead.

Additionally, China has in the neighborhood of 500 million people on lockdown. For reference, that about 1/20th of the world and about 1.5x the US’s population.

Not trying to get everyone riled up, but although there are a lot of unknowns at this point, it seems like it would be a pretty big deal if it got loose over here.


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[Rick]

Raw numbers, not percentage.

[rebel]

https://news.yahoo.com/italy-put-12-towns-coronavirus-130957022.html

It took off in Italy like a wildfire. Empty grocery stores. The military enforcement of lockdowns. Be prepared. The CDC just said on Trump’s report that the spread is inevitable.

[Rick]

SARS was also a Coronavirus. It spread to more that two dozen countries including the U.S. This new one will probably follow a similar path

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Chuck Schumer sees this as a "Golden" opportunity to get a couple $8.4billion in borrowed money out there floating around saving the world. If some of it lands in his and the DemocRats lap, well, ... it was the coronavirus's fault.....

SF declared a state of emergency and they have "0" cases. I guess the threat of coronavirus is scarier than people crapping in the streets.... Really though, crap in the streets, thousands of homeless crack/meth heads sharing needles, coronavirus pandemic on the way..... what could go wrong?


Alan

[Rick]

I know. Let's make California a sanctuary state. What could go wrong?

[rebel]

Japan closing all schools:

http://https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050869/Japanese-prime-minister-orders-closure-schools-country-month.html

[WolfVanZandt]

Aye. People are losing their minds. That's what people do, but that's not a symptom of the Corona virus.

[rebel]

Hope for the best and plan for the worse. If someone has to stay home with the children, ya might need to plan.

[nell67]

SARS was also a Coronavirus. It spread to more that two dozen countries including the U.S. This new one will probably follow a similar path With SARS, I was working in a warehouse and we were forbidden to physically touch any cargo that came through the doors from Canada, wore gloves and masks when entering trucks to unload and the driver were given instructions to go into the breakroom and sit, and for the ones who refused to due that whether just plain stubborn due to language barriers a red square was drawn on the floor for them to stand, I never understood the reasoning, nothing they touched was cleaned and disinfected when they left, and the freight was handled by others who were not wearing protective anything.

On another note, there now has been a case of COVID-19 in California with no known contact with an infected person. They say that this cornavirus does not live on surfaces for long so getting infected through touching merchandise is slim to none. Maybe not the case??

[rebel]

It’s an over hyped transmissible bad flu. It’s the strings attached that could make it a problem. Such as quarantine, economy, school closures, etc.

[Cliff Booth]

SARS was also a Coronavirus. It spread to more that two dozen countries including the U.S. This new one will probably follow a similar path

There were more cases of this thing in about a month than the entire nine month run of SARS. It’s evidently much more contagious.


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[WolfVanZandt]

I completely agree, Rebel.

Cliff, you're right, it is more contagious. So is the flu. So is a cold.

Many people believe that one of the main reasons that Christianity spread so fast in the later Roman Empire was the plague. Whereas most people baricaded themselves in their homes to avoid a contagion they couldn't avoid, the Christians went to their sick neighbors and helped them despite the risks. The effect was double - since people were more likely to survive with care, more of the sick neighbors survived, and were converted because people were so impressed by the heroic efforts of the Christians. And, of course, the Christians were caring for each other, too.

[Cliff Booth]

Another big problem is the apparent percentage of patients needing hospitalization. Supposedly much higher than with flu and much higher in the 30s and 40s age groups. These are the folks that usually just stay at home if they get sick and come out fine. So there is concern that hospitals could be overwhelmed.


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[WolfVanZandt]

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

[WolfVanZandt]

The "news" about this virus is hype. Look at responsible sources...I would consider John Hopkins and Mayo responsible. And keep in mind what's going on in the world. Neither of the only-two-parties-that-matter (sarcasm here) are getting what they want in the popular polls. They will, predictably, be looking for a common-enemy distraction to get voters' minds off the elections. The reason I'm reading this forum instead of other "survival" forums is that it's a level-headed group. I really appreciate that. Level-headedness is a primary survival trait!

[Cliff Booth]

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

I mean that’s a little misleading. Of course it hasn’t killed many people in the US. It’s barely gotten here and it’s been contained thus far.

This “it’s just the flu!” Stuff really doesn’t jibe with what’s going on in China.


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[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

I'm not ever going to put China on par with the US.

Mueller probe couldn't get Trump.
IMpeachment couldn't get Trump.
in fact the economy thrived through those two hiccups.

So, now it's "The Coronavirus!" The plague of the apocalypse! We're all going to die. Anything company dependent on anything coming out of China is in a death spiral. The news media is reporting every new case as if it is the second coming and it's working.

WE've known all along that the Liberals would see America destroyed before they give up power... Well, there it is, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, Coronavirus, ....

My advice is not to buy masks and hand sanitizer... rather, have your money ready when the world is once again safe from Coronavirus, and be ready to BUY! Because stocks are going to be at all time lows, stores are going to be empty, and we'll see an economic boom like never before..

Alan

[LowKey]

Bah, death spiral. No one is that dependent on China. Except maybe Amazon Prime, and I'm not worried about them.
It's all about instilling panic as Alan said. There's a certain segment that seems to buy into all the media hype no matter what it is.
Maybe this is the apocalypse a lot of the lurkers have been dreaming of. Get your BOBs and black rifles and get ready to eat tree bark and MREs.

I did notice some very strange holes in the shelves at the grocery store today.
No flour. Never seen that before.
Lots of bread missing (though there were a few snowflakes in the air while wandering into the store.)
Big holes in the water aisle too.

My mission tomorrow is toilet paper. Time to make a Costco trip up over the border. Cash. No sales tax.

[Cliff Booth]

China, Italy, and Iran are not involved in some crazy liberal conspiracy to oust Trump. This is potentially serious.

When trying to quarantine the outbreak, the were basically just screening for fevers. We now know that was a terribly inefficient way to catch carriers and that they likely missed 60% of total cases. Where did those people go? All over. And most medical facilities are not equipped to test for it.

Doctors are asking patients calling in with flu like symptoms if they’ve traveled internationally recently or been in contact with any such travelers, but that’s about it.


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[WolfVanZandt]

Cliff, nothing from China is reliable. Period. The SARS epidemic was more dangerous than this and they bearly blinked an eye. Now they're losing there minds over a cold? I don't think so. If they're anything, John Hopkins isn't "misleading" - they're just not losing their minds over a cold. And, trying to oust Trump? You have /me/ seriously wrong there. I would think that the last thing they would want is to oust Trump.

[Cliff Booth]

Cliff, nothing from China is reliable. Period. The SARS epidemic was more dangerous than this and they bearly blinked an eye. Now they're losing there minds over a cold? I don't think so. If they're anything, John Hopkins isn't "misleading" - they're just not losing their minds over a cold. And, trying to oust Trump? You have /me/ seriously wrong there. I would think that the last thing they would want is to oust Trump.

You mentioned Mayo. They’ve been preparing for this for weeks and one of their leaders have admitted this has the potential to be a disaster. I know people in China right now. The situation is extremely dire. Unbelievable amount of people confined to their homes. One meal a day and praying they can make that last.


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[crashdive123]

Hi Cliff Booth. Since this is the topic that seems to concern you (as it should us all) and you are offering up some info on it, could you please go to the introduction section and tell us a bit about yourself. I, as many other do, like to know more about who is offering advice and opinion. Thanks.

[Phaedrus]

It bears watching for sure. There's a vaccine already, it was delivered to the NIH a few days ago for testing. I have no idea what the testing protocol is like nor how long it takes to enter the supply line (assuming it works). It sounds like this virus isn't airborne; to become infected you need to contact the afflicted person and/or their mucus or bodily fluids. Incidents of infection from surface contact seems low, too (eg using the keyboard of someone who's sick, etc).

Travel restrictions seem pointless AFAIK. It's already established in most countries. The incubation period seems to be as long as three weeks during which time the carrier may show no symptoms. There's a test but apparently there are only a few thousand test kits in the whole of the USA so good luck with that.

Avoiding those already sick is a good policy but someone can show no symptoms so that's difficult. The best bet seems to be to avoid contact with people as much as possible and wash your hands frequently and correctly.

I work as the Exec Chef of nonprofit in MT. Our next program is in a couple weeks and all the participants are flying in from Virginia Beach. We're watching the situation as it's entire families that go through our program. If COVID19 quickly spreads I would anticipate us cancelling the next couple programs.

[rebel]

CDC said 12-18 months for the testing.

[zedsdead]

Just to put this hype into perspective:
The population of China is 1.6 billion people, the number of cases reported is plateauing, and the death rate is relatively low.
For 80,000 cases in China, only 0.005% of the population have had the virus.

[JohnLeePettimore]

I know a family that moved to China as doctor/missionaries. They are in Chengdu. In their apartment complex they are allowed to have one adult leave the complex (they aren't stuck in the apartment) every two days for critical items. The clinic he works at has been closed all of February (not sure what date it closed), but recently started having limited access for medicine refills, and mild emergencies. He hasn't worked since late January.

He doesn't sound panicked about it as a plague, but he hasn't worked, so he hasn't been paid. He mentions schools and businesses being closed, with rumors that they may re-open in mid-March.

I think (for whatever my opinion is worth), that our major problems are going to be economic. Just because your business, or job, doesn't directly deal with China, doesn't mean you won't be effected by the Chinese shut-down. If a manufacturer/assembler doesn't get it's Chinese parts, they won't be using any American ones either. TQMS-type facilities will really be hit hard. [Total Quality Management System - "just in time" supply chain - minimal inventory]

Real problems will be exacerbated by panic. I remember back in the 1970's there were a couple of shortages of some products (I forget what they were), and Johnny Carson made a joke about the real problem would be if there was a toilet paper shortage. That joke created a shortage, because some people weren't really listening (imagine that!), thought there was a shortage, and emptied the shelves of toilet paper. The "shortage" was perpetuated because people saw they empty shelves, then bought it all up whenever any was stocked.

History repeats itself.

[WolfVanZandt]

The usual rush on Walmart when a storm is predicted? Now it's because of the Corona virus. We're probably having more people die trying to get to ( and out of) Walmart then will ever die as a result of the virus.

The only importance of what China is doing is why they're doing it. Like I said, the SARS epidemic was more dangerous and there was none of this "panic". I don't believe all the frenzied activity is about the virus.

This is not a pandemic and the answer is not to panic or to isolate anyone. Survival is done by cooperating, not by isolating.

By the way, do you know where most of our paper surgical masks come from?

[WolfVanZandt]

Y'know, I'm getting pretty fed up with all these politicians rallying people, not to come together in a time of crisis, but to come over to their side because they're some kind of daddy that will protect us from some kind of monster that, frankly, is probably imaginary.

Home of the brave and free? We're the home of the frightened and locked in.

I don't need protection from the Corona virus. I need protection from the people running for office. The way things are going, I may soon need protection from citizens that think that I might be infected and from the police that are good to keep people indoors so they don't spread "this thing". Heck, if we're all quarantined on election day, we just won't have an election, will we?

"Where's our heads at?"

[rebel]

All those people that wanted to take a one way trip to Mars should step up for testing.

[Cliff Booth]

I’m confused as to why you keep saying SARS is more dangerous. The data pretty clearly demonstrate that is not true.


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[Cliff Booth]

Just to put this hype into perspective:
The population of China is 1.6 billion people, the number of cases reported is plateauing, and the death rate is relatively low.
For 80,000 cases in China, only 0.005% of the population have had the virus.

Italy is probably what we need to watch to see how this thing might play out over here. No telling how accurate China's numbers are. Also, they shot themselves in the foot by trying to squash any doctors warning them that something was up.

[nell67]

Bah, death spiral. No one is that dependent on China. Except maybe Amazon Prime, and I'm not worried about them.
It's all about instilling panic as Alan said. There's a certain segment that seems to buy into all the media hype no matter what it is.
Maybe this is the apocalypse a lot of the lurkers have been dreaming of. Get your BOBs and black rifles and get ready to eat tree bark and MREs.

I did notice some very strange holes in the shelves at the grocery store today.
No flour. Never seen that before.
Lots of bread missing (though there were a few snowflakes in the air while wandering into the store.)
Big holes in the water aisle too.

My mission tomorrow is toilet paper. Time to make a Costco trip up over the border. Cash. No sales tax.

The Walmart and Jay-C food store here (Kroger), were completely out of bleach. Not one single bottle of any bleach except the spray bottles and wipes. Said they had none in the stock room, and none coming one the next truck. Went in yesterday and they had a few bottles of off brand on the shelves, but everyone wanted Clorox.... The dollar store had tons of their label as did Dollar General. In the labs I've worked in, they make their own disinfectant of 10:1 bleach solution. They don't buy Clorox, they use the cheapest bleach available. It works.

[WolfVanZandt]

Cliff, it was more deadly because, once you got it, you were more likely to die, and it spread well enough to be an issue. If you have a compromised immune system, you should be concerned about this virus, but otherwise, it's not a big deal.

[JohnLeePettimore]

The Walmart and Jay-C food store here (Kroger), were completely out of bleach. Not one single bottle of any bleach except the spray bottles and wipes. Said they had none in the stock room, and none coming one the next truck. Went in yesterday and they had a few bottles of off brand on the shelves, but everyone wanted Clorox.... The dollar store had tons of their label as did Dollar General. In the labs I've worked in, they make their own disinfectant of 10:1 bleach solution. They don't buy Clorox, they use the cheapest bleach available. It works.

EVERYONE knows that only name brand sodium hypochlorite solutions kill germs. Get with the program.

;o)

[BENESSE]

Exaggerated or not, it just goes to show how vulnerable we all are to other people's panic and misinformation in general.
The bottom line has always been: prepare for the worst before you really have to. Coronavirus is no different.

[crashdive123]

Another big takeaway for this is that we as a country are way too dependent on China. Far too many essential items are manufactured there and seem to be our only source. Just as individuals, we need to be much less dependent on others and more self sufficient.

[WolfVanZandt]

Crash, if we were the country (we, the people, that is) we probably would be.

[Cliff Booth]

Cliff, it was more deadly because, once you got it, you were more likely to die, and it spread well enough to be an issue. If you have a compromised immune system, you should be concerned about this virus, but otherwise, it's not a big deal.

You are comparing one virus that ran its course over 15 years ago and has been studied extensively, to a brand new virus that is still spreading. That's about like saying your car is the fastest because you are in the lead after 3 seconds, while the guy behind you is still accelerating.

The idea that it is only dangerous to compromised patients isn't really well-founded yet, either. Most anything is going to be more dangerous to those that are already ill, but we don't really have enough information to say everyone else is safe.

As far as SARS goes, you were way less likely to get that, as only 8000 or so people ever did. We're at over 10 times that number right now. That's after 2 months versus a 9 month run for SARS. Additionally, the SARS data is complete. All cases have run their course. No new cases and everyone that got it is now recovered or dead. Complete statistics. This COVID-19 takes longer to start causing problems and is spreading rapidly. Thus, the number of new cases is going up a lot faster than the number of people dropping dead. The death rate is calculated by number of deaths divided by number of known cases. So since the virus is actively spreading, the denominator is obviously going up more rapidly than the numerator. But it doesn't make a lot of sense to look at someone that got diagnosed with COVID-19 fifteen minutes ago and count them in the "survivor" category. So that 2% number could be a lot lower than the actual number of people that are going to die. It's also possible that there are a ton of unreported cases also causing problems calculating the actual rate.

I'm not urging you to panic, overthrow the government, go live isolated in the woods, stockpile guns and ammo, or anything like that. But I certainly wouldn't brush this off because someone says it's only 2% and the flu is worse or anything like that.

[Dogwood]

I'm not a M.D. or with the CDC so all this should be confirmed. And, new information, insight and continuing new developments are contributing to a progressively better understanding.

The CDC has publicly released those at highest risk of death are those with dysfunctional immune systems and those with pre existing conditions - diabetes, cardiovascular disease, etc. The CDC also offers how to reduce contraction risks of COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/risk-assessment.html

COVID -19 is but one virus in the corona virus 'family.'

[rebel]

DOD says...https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-department-defense-pandemic-30-days-1489876%3famp=1

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Meanwhile, back on the reality ranch.....

CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.(CDCwww.cdc.gov )


Alan

[rebel]

Another with some prep guides. Use it or don’t. https://www.theorganicprepper.com/dod-covid-19-pandemic-30-days/

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

U.S. reports 9th coronavirus death... (WAPO)

Regular flu - 34,200 deaths
Coronavirus - 9 deaths

And that's with FREE flu shots....

I'm not really seeing the urgency...

But some people are. I was in Harbor Freight to day getting an armload of junk (from China) and a guy comes in looking for respirators and masks. The manager told him to go to Lowes or Home Depot... He didn't look like a painter... He left in a hurry...

I have a chronic cough, have had it all my life. I cough to some exent about every minute. Every time I'd cough today everyone else would turn and look at me...

I think I'll go to town again tomorrow... doesn't take much to entertain me...


Alan

[crashdive123]

I have a chronic cough, have had it all my life. I cough to some exent about every minute. Every time I'd cough today everyone else would turn and look at me...

I think I'll go to town again tomorrow... doesn't take much to entertain me...


Alan

If you find yourself in a long check-out line.........just cough and ask out loud that you wonder if you picked up the cough in China. Bet it speeds up the check-out process.

[Rick]

You, sir, are sick. Oh, wait. I wonder if it's the virus? Naw.

Numbers can be a bit misleading at this point. You have to consider the time spans involved. If we wait a year and look at the numbers they may look a lot different. H1N1 saw 20,000 hospitalized and 1000 deaths (rounded) in the first six months in 2009 before Obama declared an emergency. I'm glad Trump moved as quickly as he did. That may have a positive impact on the U.S. numbers and that translates to human suffering and lives.

[rebel]

Some numbers: http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/time-to-debunk-the-skeptics-covid-19-has-a-death-rate-that-is-about-34-times-higher-than-the-flu

[Cliff Booth]

U.S. reports 9th coronavirus death... (WAPO)

Regular flu - 34,200 deaths
Coronavirus - 9 deaths

And that's with FREE flu shots....

I'm not really seeing the urgency...

But some people are. I was in Harbor Freight to day getting an armload of junk (from China) and a guy comes in looking for respirators and masks. The manager told him to go to Lowes or Home Depot... He didn't look like a painter... He left in a hurry...

I have a chronic cough, have had it all my life. I cough to some exent about every minute. Every time I'd cough today everyone else would turn and look at me...

I think I'll go to town again tomorrow... doesn't take much to entertain me...


Alan

Two posts show the difference.

65 cases and 9 deaths.

Or.

35.5 million cases and 34,000 deaths.

If this thing spreads like it has the potential to do, it would be very bad. Chiba appears to have drastically slowed transmission with draconian measures, but it was exploding there for awhile.

[Cliff Booth]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/04/coronavirus-live-updates-washington-outbreak-amazon-schools-vaccine-facebook/4940378002/

Previous global mortality rate estimates for the coronavirus had been around 2%, and the latest number is not firm because testing continues to lag. It remains unclear how many people actually have been infected. Still, 3.4% mortality rate is worrisome, Tedros said.

So the death rate is about 75% higher than they initially thought. That adds up to about 1 in 28. And it's possible that number is still low.

[WolfVanZandt]

Cliff, I'm not comparing viruses. I'm comparing China's reaction to viruses.

And rates are very unreliable because....well, because rates are tools for mass manipulation.

I'm not suggested we blow it off. But I M suggesting we don't lose our minds or be lead around by the nose like a bull to slaughter.

We have much bigger problems. Hunger kills a lot more than the corona, and we could eliminate that by moving wealth away from the tiny number of people who have it all and use it to save people's lives.

The corona is a way to shift people's focus from real problems. I don't bait.

[Cliff Booth]

Cliff, I'm not comparing viruses. I'm comparing China's reaction to viruses.

And rates are very unreliable because....well, because rates are tools for mass manipulation.

I'm not suggested we blow it off. But I M suggesting we don't lose our minds or be lead around by the nose like a bull to slaughter.

We have much bigger problems. Hunger kills a lot more than the corona, and we could eliminate that by moving wealth away from the tiny number of people who have it all and use it to save people's lives.

The corona is a way to shift people's focus from real problems. I don't bait.

Didn’t really feel like we were on the cusp of billionaires having all their assets seized and distributed to the slums before this new virus broke loose and infected a bunch of Chinese. I doubt Jeff Bezos is breathing a big sigh of relief.

[rebel]

I was wondering about food production, processing, transportation and distribution IF it effects the chain of production. The windows are reliant on many factors. The disruption may not be noted for awhile but, they would come. I’d like to see people more self reliant and supplies for more than a few days.

[Rick]

Private wealth isn't going to be seized. It might be taxed but then they will simply shelter those funds necessary to bring their wealth down below that threshold. I find it almost funny...almost...that folks always want to tax some else but never themselves. Seize someone's property but never theirs. Here are a couple of facts for you (you in the plural).

Castro's net wealth at the time of his death: $800 million
Chavez's daugther's net weath: $2.6 billion
It's hard to calculate Stalin's net worth but it is thought is was about $7.5 trillion in today's dollars.
Karl Marx lived on his friend Freidrich Engels until Marx secured his one and only job as a reporter for an English paper. He didn't speak English so he had Engels ghost write for him until he learned English.

You gotta love those socialists.

[Cliff Booth]

Private wealth isn't going to be seized. It might be taxed but then they will simply shelter those funds necessary to bring their wealth down below that threshold. I find it almost funny...almost...that folks always want to tax some else but never themselves. Seize someone's property but never theirs. Here are a couple of facts for you (you in the plural).

Castro's net wealth at the time of his death: $800 million
Chavez's daugther's net weath: $2.6 billion
It's hard to calculate Stalin's net worth but it is thought is was about $7.5 trillion in today's dollars.
Karl Marx lived on his friend Freidrich Engels until Marx secured his one and only job as a reporter for an English paper. He didn't speak English so he had Engels ghost write for him until he learned English.

You gotta love those socialists.

It seems like I read somewhere that if we seized 100% of assets from all our country’s billionaires it would fund the country for like 2 months or something minuscule like that.

[Rick]

The country earns a little less than 4 trillion a year.

[WolfVanZandt]

Cliff, I'm sure a billionaire wrote that. It wasn't the point though. What I said is that we're so focused on this virus when hunger kills a lot more people and we can do something about that. I'm talking about priorities.

This virus is not a danger to most of the people on this forum. If we want to do something about the virus, we could always identify people at risk and go grocery shopping for them so they don't have to expose themselves any more than necessary.

[Cliff Booth]

Cliff, I'm sure a billionaire wrote that. It wasn't the point though. What I said is that we're so focused on this virus when hunger kills a lot more people and we can do something about that. I'm talking about priorities.

This virus is not a danger to most of the people on this forum. If we want to do something about the virus, we could always identify people at risk and go grocery shopping for them so they don't have to expose themselves any more than necessary.

Not a danger is a gross overstatement.


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[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Hey, Never fear! Jim Baker (remember him?) invented a "Silver Solution" that kills Corona Virus!!!! We're all saved, now drink the Koolaide..... (That was Jim Jones).


Alan

[Rick]

I had a couple of buddies that spotted a possum in the middle of the road one night. It was blinded by the truck's headlights and they decided it would be a great idea to pick up that possum by the tail. So they snuck down the edge of the road and one of them grabbed it by the tail. Ain't nothin' dangerous until it is. You never want a buddy to fling a possum at you. Even if he is trying to get rid of it. This virus might be a possum and we don't know it yet.

[Rick]

I guess the other thing that sort of skews the numbers are those folks that do get sick but never call their doctor or go to the hospital. They just stay home and get better. Just like anyone else with the "flu". We'll never know how many of those there are but that definitely raises the base and lowers the mortality rate. All we are seeing right now are those numbers that are reported. Not dismissing anything just trying to put it in perspective.

[rebel]

I guess the other thing that sort of skews the numbers are those folks that do get sick but never call their doctor or go to the hospital. They just stay home and get better. Just like anyone else with the "flu". We'll never know how many of those there are but that definitely raises the base and lowers the mortality rate. All we are seeing right now are those numbers that are reported. Not dismissing anything just trying to put it in perspective.

Isn’t that what the gov. is saying to do? To self quarantine and not spread the virus. Makes sense to not take it to the hospital and compromise those who are vulnerable or those that provide care. Get your supplies and stay home.

[BushCraftPilot]

It is kind of screwing up politics

[WolfVanZandt]

Rick, you're right, and things like that add to the lack of urgency in websites like the John Hopkins one. You're also right about the possum...I woulda been short a "friend"

But what you said is true of all viruses, including the flu. One of the characteristics of viruses, some more than others, is that they mutate. They can mutate into a stronger or weaker form. Evolution would favor a moderate form that spreads (reproduces) better but doesn't kill all the hosts.

But, as I've said before, the key to surviving anything but an extinction level event is to maintain general body health. The human body is equipped to deal with most assaults from the outside if it's in good working order.

And, no, Cliff, I don't believe I'm overstating the case at all. I noticed that you're in a health profession. I am retired after 20 years in a health profession and before that I survived 10 years of one of the most dangerous professions there is...college student, and another 10 years working through college. Not only am I well versed in human physiology, pharmacy, viruses and such, but I'm also well versed in my major of social psychology, plus the politics of medical industries, cognitive biases, and mass manipulation.

I've recommended a level head and non-isolationism. You've been all scarey and stuff but I haven't seen much about how too approach this thing. What are your suggestions, there?

[BushCraftPilot]

But the more you worry, the more likely you'll catch it. It isn't curable, being a virus, but antibiotics and a vax are being researched.

[WolfVanZandt]

Rebel, you are so right. Government definitely wants you to stay inside. Especially stay away from those crowded polls where you might vote against the partys' favorites in the primaries. Wow! If, say, Sanders beat Biden in the popular vote, they'd have to figure out some kind of complication to turn the election.

Ya'llvwant to survive? Keep the whole picture in view.

[Rick]

Antibiotics don't work on viruses. Anti-viruls do but not antibiotics.

[rebel]

Stay home with your supplies or a stay at the econo-lodge with no supplies.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-images-emerge-americas-first-covid-19-quarantine-village

[WolfVanZandt]

Absolutely, Rick. And the best antiviral (and an effective one) is the body's own defenses.

Rebel, those are not the only options. For me, the better option is for neighbors to help each other out. It may well be airborne so, if you stay at home with your supplies, you may catch it anyway, and your inactivity will make it more probable. If you don't catch it, join others in fighting it.

Your best defense is /public/ health.

[WolfVanZandt]

By the way, by all means read what the Mayo clinic has to say. Especially their recommendations.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/expert-answers/novel-coronavirus/faq-20478727

[rebel]

Absolutely, Rick. And the best antiviral (and an effective one) is the body's own defenses.

Rebel, those are not the only options. For me, the better option is for neighbors to help each other out. It may well be airborne so, if you stay at home with your supplies, you may catch it anyway, and your inactivity will make it more probable. If you don't catch it, join others in fighting it.

Your best defense is /public/ health.

Lol. I didn’t say be an isolationist. I’ve got elder care and the unprepared family and neighbors. Sayin’ get ready as best you can.

[WolfVanZandt]

What I'm saying and also what the Mayo clinic and John Hopkins is saying is prepare for the corona virus just like you would prepare for a cold. All this running around buying up Clorox is anti-survival, anti-prepping. What you need is what you should already have. You have what you need in case you catch a cold, don't you? That's what you need to prep for the corona virus.

And what I'm also saying is that what marketers, politicians, and big name business people want is for you to lose your marbles.

[LowKey]

This is why the stores were out of bleach:
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/jan/30/tweets/no-drinking-bleach-will-not-ward-coronavirus/
Anyone stupid enough to drink bleach doesn't need the corona virus. They're doing alright at dyin' all by themselves.

Cliff, were you sent here to try to rile things up? No one seems to be biting.

[Cliff Booth]

Rick, you're right, and things like that add to the lack of urgency in websites like the John Hopkins one. You're also right about the possum...I woulda been short a "friend"

But what you said is true of all viruses, including the flu. One of the characteristics of viruses, some more than others, is that they mutate. They can mutate into a stronger or weaker form. Evolution would favor a moderate form that spreads (reproduces) better but doesn't kill all the hosts.

But, as I've said before, the key to surviving anything but an extinction level event is to maintain general body health. The human body is equipped to deal with most assaults from the outside if it's in good working order.

And, no, Cliff, I don't believe I'm overstating the case at all. I noticed that you're in a health profession. I am retired after 20 years in a health profession and before that I survived 10 years of one of the most dangerous professions there is...college student, and another 10 years working through college. Not only am I well versed in human physiology, pharmacy, viruses and such, but I'm also well versed in my major of social psychology, plus the politics of medical industries, cognitive biases, and mass manipulation.

I've recommended a level head and non-isolationism. You've been all scarey and stuff but I haven't seen much about how too approach this thing. What are your suggestions, there?

I would recommend watching the situation very carefully at this point. I would strongly caution against calling it no big deal before we know more about it. I’d keep in mind this thing was growing at an overwhelming rate before China got really serious about it.

I’d avoid unnecessary travel, especially internationally.

I’d be nervous if I had kids in daycare or elderly relatives in nursing homes if I lived in an area where the virus had been identified.


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[WolfVanZandt]

Last two paragraphs make sense.

But watch the situation? How are we supposed to do that? Glue ourselves to a machine that can't get the facts straight in the first place?

I will call it no big deal as long as the medical experts (in my case, John Hopkins and Mayo - hmmm, now I'm hungry) call it no big deal.

The flu grows at an overwhelming rate every year. So does the cold. Rate of spread doesn't impress me terribly. And neither does hype.

And young and elderly isn't the issue. Poor health, and specifically poor immunity is the issue.

And one thing I'm going to do about it is wash dishes and hike Waterton Canyon with a friend....oh, and eat fish.

[Fixit]

I had laugh this morning. A doctor's site call a radio station in Nashville and said " that her husband said that it was no big deal but that she needed to go to the store and stock up the pantry because with a case I Franklin people would panic and there wouldn't be anything t left in the store . "

[Cliff Booth]

Last two paragraphs make sense.

But watch the situation? How are we supposed to do that? Glue ourselves to a machine that can't get the facts straight in the first place?

I will call it no big deal as long as the medical experts (in my case, John Hopkins and Mayo - hmmm, now I'm hungry) call it no big deal.

The flu grows at an overwhelming rate every year. So does the cold. Rate of spread doesn't impress me terribly. And neither does hype.

And young and elderly isn't the issue. Poor health, and specifically poor immunity is the issue.

And one thing I'm going to do about it is wash dishes and hike Waterton Canyon with a friend....oh, and eat fish.

Hopkins and Mayo are basically saying exactly what I just said. They are absolutely not saying this is no big deal and don’t worry about it.


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[rebel]

Say what?

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/pennsylvania-governor-declares-coronavirus-disaster-calls-up-national-guard-invokes-full-emergency-powers#comment

[Rick]

So, anyone want to buy a Pa National Guard uniform? Slightly used only on week-ends. Going cheap.

[Cliff Booth]

Looking at Italy, it appears around 10% of folks with the virus require hospitalization. Most of those need respirators to help them breathe. Anyone treating them would need an N95 mask. Preferably, that mask would be changed multiple times per day to avoid cross contamination, although they can technically be used for around 8 hours.

We’ve got about 1 million or so hospital beds in the entire country. I’d say over half are occupied at any given time. So let’s say we’ve got 500,000. And those are regular beds, not ICU beds or quarantine units, so less than ideal situation. So your risk of the other people in the hospital contracting it is going to be pretty high and these are mostly the people that you worry the most when they get it. I’m also unsure what the number of respirators looks like. Hospital beds may not do a whole lot of good if we have no means to assist breathing.

Growth models seem to indicate the number of cases doubles about every week. It’s followed that pattern pretty closely everywhere except for post lockdown China. We’ve got 375 cases now. So only 30-40 hospital beds affected at the moment. Very manageable. In 8 weeks you’d have more like 10,000 hospitalized. Still doable. 12 weeks out it’s more like 150,000 beds, which would be a tremendous strain. And obviously it gets worse from there. Of course, this is all based on the rate of growth not changing and the current level of virulence remaining the same. But that kind of volume would probably lead to a lot of unrelated deaths from people just not having the same access to care.


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[LowKey]

If you're worried about hospital beds, catch it early is all I can offer.

Try to by hand sanitizer. LOL.
Amazon is price gouging at nearly $20 per 8oz bottle.
I noticed today all gone in both Walmart and Walgreens.
Even the alcohol prep pads for injections and bottles of isopropyl alcohol are all gone.

This too shall pass.
Or maybe it's Mother Nature's way of saying there are too many of you.
<shrug>

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Lord help us if we ever have a real crisis....



Alan

[Rick]

I had a real crisis once. I was on a hot date in the country and broke a fan belt. That wasn't the crisis. I had to call my dad to come get me. THAT was the crisis.

"What were you doing way out there...never mind. Don't tell me."
"I got lost."
Side ways glance followed by head shake.

That's also the moment I learned to carry a spare fan belt and other ancillary stuff for the car.

[Fixit]

I kept looking at a!l the areas going in to lockdown a d can't help but thing about the looking crisis i the maturity wards in 9 months.

[WolfVanZandt]

Well, now it's serious. Colorado is quarantining people. That wouldn't be so bad if they strictly protected people's jobs but this is an at-will state. People are going to be fired for being off the job for two weeks and all that has to happen is that someone says that you were exposed. You don't have to be sick to be quarantined.

Can you say "police state?"

Cliff, the WHO rated Italy's health care as second best in the world. Every citizen gets health care there. If you sneeze, you can go into the hospital and they'll do everything possible to get you to stop sneezing. Here, we have a thousand homeless and the police say, "move along." They tell you you have to have health insurance but when you buy a policy that you can't afford and you get sick, you go to the hospital and pay out of pocket for the rest of your life because the expensive insurance doesn't pay on claims. Or you get an expensive lawyer if, per chance, you can afford one.

We're not Italy.

[Cliff Booth]

That WHO ranking was actually on healthcare efficiency, not necessarily who is “best”. Affordability was a big factor there.

The economically challenged among us are getting care when they are in a life threatening crisis and that isn’t changing anytime soon.


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[WolfVanZandt]

Sometimes, an economically challenged person can't wait for Medicaid to tunnel through all the red tape to get papers in order. People in a large part of the world get health care /when they need it/.

[Cliff Booth]

Sometimes, an economically challenged person can't wait for Medicaid to tunnel through all the red tape to get papers in order. People in a large part of the world get health care /when they need it/.

You come to the ER with difficulty breathing you are getting help.

People in a large part of the world get their MRIs months after they needed it.


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[WolfVanZandt]

Thats what you see on the Internet, but it's not what the people from other countries say, nor is it what the WHO says.

Also, we used to fight like crazy to help our disabled people get disability. I have a close friend that can't work and, incidentally, it's taking forever for him to get disability. In other countries, if you're disabled, you just start drawing disability.

[Cliff Booth]

Thats what you see on the Internet, but it's not what the people from other countries say, nor is it what the WHO says.

Also, we used to fight like crazy to help our disabled people get disability. I have a close friend that can't work and, incidentally, it's taking forever for him to get disability. In other countries, if you're disabled, you just start drawing disability.

You should help him relocate to Italy.

We have bazillions of people on disability a pretty big portion of which are hardly incapable of working. He’ll get it eventually.

And yes, single payer systems have a whole new set of issues and access to timely tests or procedures that aren’t deemed immediately necessary is a problem. We will be heading that direction soon enough and you’ll get to experience how well a government runs something as complex as healthcare. It’s going to be a lot harder than directing an agency whose sole objective is to put letters and packages in mailboxes.

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[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

I lived long enough to be on Medicare. I'm set ..... right?

I'm also glad I can't get the Coronavirus from hearing about it constantly.... I seldom watch the national news on one of the fake news stations, but I did today. If they said "Coronavirus" once they said it a thousand times, mostly preceded by the comment that Trump is not doing enough to stop it....


Alan

[rebel]

It’s going to spread. Nobody can stop it. Blaming is short-sighted and political.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Yes, it's going to spread, AND, we will surely get a case by case report from the mainstream news media.

If you're old and have health problems or have a compromised immune system then you'll likely get it and could probably die from it! But whatever you do take all precautions against getting the REAL flu, because that has a really good chance of punching your dance card.

Alan

[Cliff Booth]

I lived long enough to be on Medicare. I'm set ..... right?

I'm also glad I can't get the Coronavirus from hearing about it constantly.... I seldom watch the national news on one of the fake news stations, but I did today. If they said "Coronavirus" once they said it a thousand times, mostly preceded by the comment that Trump is not doing enough to stop it....


Alan

I’m not sure anything he did would have mattered too much. Maybe some ways he could have slowed it down, but infected people were already out of Wuhan and all over the place before the rest of the world really knew how serious it was there. Pretty much inevitable at that point. We’ll ride it out and hopefully the damage is minimal and the economy isn’t too disrupted. Also, hopefully this doesn’t frequently mutate and become some constantly circulating illness with a fairly high death rate.


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[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

From the article:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

"Scientists' estimate of the death rate is lower because not all cases are reported."
"But it depends on a range of factors: your age, sex and general health and the health system you are in."
"Most cases of most viruses will go uncounted because people tend not to visit the doctor with mild symptoms."
"...deaths were at least five times more common among people with diabetes, high blood pressure or heart or breathing problems.
There was even a slightly higher number of deaths among men compared to women."
"The basic advice from the WHO is that you can protect yourself from all respiratory viruses by washing your hands, avoiding people who are coughing and sneezing and trying not to touch your eyes, nose and mouth."

https://i.imgur.com/l4ZD712.png

So, after all the hype and hoopla, the advice from WHO is to do the things that keep you from catching ANY respiratory virus. They don't say to buy thousands of dollars worth of alcohol, baby wipes, hand sanitizer, masks or ANYTHING for that matter. Just wash your hands, don't bite your finger nails, pick your nose or poke yourself in the eye(s)....

But, on the News at 10, they will say Coronavirus 1200 times because it sounds cool and perhaps the death toll may have increased by 1.....

Do I want to catch this thing? NO! Not any more or less than I want to catch any illness. I don't hold the rail on stairs, escalators or elevators. I don't touch anything in a public restroom. I stay away from sick people (and people in general). I take my vitamins and dietary supplements (some of them are anti-viral and immune system enhancers... at least that's what they say on the bottle).

So, even though I'm in all three high risk groups on the chart, chances are Ed MacMahon and the Prize Patrol will show up at my house twice in one week before I catch the Coronavirus..... Even though Ed is dead...


Alan

[WolfVanZandt]

Medicaid has been good here in Denver. They make frequent mistakes but they urnestly try to fix them. The problem is that, if you have a medical emergency while they're making a mistake you might be dead running around trying to fix it. The red tape is serious.

It's red tape other countries don't seem to have, do why are there so many problems in our wonderful system that others seem to have beaten.

By the way, if you really want to take the "if you're not happy with the way things are here, you should go elsewhere" tact I'll be glad to 'ressle with you over that.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

From Fox News:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/inslee-on-trump-coronavirus-feud-i-dont-care-what-donald-trump-thinks-of-me


"The state has been the hardest hit by the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S., with at least 70 confirmed infections and 11 dead. Most of those who died were residents of Life Care Center, a nursing home in Kirkland, a suburb east of Seattle. Researchers say the virus may have been circulating undetected for weeks."


So, it got into a nursing home, remained undetected for weeks, and SOME, not all, of the old and infirm died....

That's hardly indicative of a pandemic of Black Death proportions like the Media is trying to hype up.

I was talking to a woman the other day, and she believed it was a biological weapons attack by China... So, people will believe anything except logic and reason...



Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Local news just reported that stores are running out of ......... soap.

This is getting comically ridiculous.

Meanwhile the CDC reports that 20,000 Americans have died from the Flu... 136 Children. More children have died of the flu than nursing home residents have died in total from Coronavirus. Talk about barking up the wrong tree...

But Steve Hilton...

https://www.foxnews.com/media/steve-hilton-overreaction-coronavirus


Steve Hilton spent much of his opening monologue Sunday slamming Democrats and the media, saying they've been stoking the flames of coronavirus panic with the country at risk of a "catastrophic overreaction."

"Of course, no one should minimize it, and we must do all we can to stop preventable deaths -- but it seems to me that we’ve got a bunch of people in leadership positions in the media and business and Congress who are running around maximizing coronavirus without a thought for the harm they may be causing," Hilton said on "The Next Revolution."

"The virus is here. It's going to spread. The vast majority of people who get it won't even know. As Dr. [Anthony] Fauci said today, we know who is at risk: the elderly and those with underlying conditions. For God's sake, let's put our efforts into protecting them."

"Stop this wild, reckless overreaction based on panic, not science."

"This is yet another example of an arrogant ruling elite with no understanding of, or empathy for, how precarious the lives of the poorest Americans are.

"That's what [Trump economic adviser] Larry Kudlow is doing. They are 100 percent right -- we don't need panic, we need to be positive and practical."


Thanks for the level head Steve.

Alan

[nell67]

Cases have know shown up in Ky and Indiana. One is Louisville is twenty minutes away from me, and there are three surrounding the Indianapolis area about 90 minutes from me, but closer to where Rick is from.

Bleach is back on the store shelves here or was, but now that the virus is proven so close maybe short lived, and hand sanitizer also is in short supply. I bet I had twenty emails yesterday on how to make your own hand sanitizer.

[Rick]

Both the cases in Indy are in self quarantine.

According to that chart above, if I get this thing when I check in to the hospital I'm going to tell them I'm 10-19 with no underlying health conditions and female. I should be over in a day or two.

[WolfVanZandt]

Since this is a survival forum, let me make an admission...I'm a dirty person. I rarely wash my hands. I do wash then when I handle clean dishes and when I'm cooking for others. I don't mind dirt in my food when I'm camping. I enter nature with impunity defying rain, storm, mud, and animal byproducts (like ham. I love ham!) And I clean up messes without gloves (and I used to work at a camp for disabled children and adults...some of the messes I've cleaned up). I'll sleep anywhere...in a tub, under a bush, under a bridge. I'm an animal.

There's this thing about survival, though. If you aren't exposed to something, you don't develop defenses against it.

As dirty as I am. If I catch almost anything, I'm over it in three days. Injuries...three days. I had a broken arm once it took a week to heal. I've had two "novel viruses" it took five (whoa! Five!) days to get over.

Part of that is my natural immunity. My Neanderthal traits will kill off any virus...then they come after me. Fair trade. But a large part is that I avoid nothing and appreciate everything. Attitude is Big. I will live until I die and I appreciate (in the sense of art appreciation) everything in between.

Cliff, you sound like a very fearful person, or someone who wants everyone else to be fearful, or both. I hope you're actually reading other threads on this forum. You may end up in the woods one day.

[Rick]

Not me. I wash everything. Twice. Sometimes three times. If it's coming for me I'm not going down without a fight. That germ will have to wade through the soapsuds to get me. It will have to swim through the alcohol to get me. It will have to fly through aerial disinfectants to get me. It will have to crawl through floor sanitizers to get me. There's a sign outside my house that says. Germ! Abandon all hope ye who enter here. And I mean it. I'm a modern man that has adopted modern methods including germ warfare. (see what I did there?)

[BENESSE]

Fear can be constructive, panic never is. Be aware of the difference.
You've got nothing to loose by being vigorously pro-active in doing everything you can in order to minimize coming down with it. Don't get too cocky over your strong immune system (so far) or the fact you weathered other viruses and infections with ease--there are a lot of unknowns about COVID-19 and its unpredictability ought to give everyone a healthy dose of fear.

As with any disease, catching it early is better than late. Watch and see isn't always smart--we've all either experienced that ourselves or had a loved one go through it. Wouldn't you rather hear "it's nothing serious" rather than "if only you've gotten here sooner"?

You don't know what you don't know, so why take chances?

[BENESSE]

Not me. I wash everything. Twice. Sometimes three times. If it's coming for me I'm not going down without a fight. That germ will have to wade through the soapsuds to get me. It will have to swim through the alcohol to get me. It will have to fly through aerial disinfectants to get me. It will have to crawl through floor sanitizers to get me. There's a sign outside my house that says. Germ! Abandon all hope ye who enter here. And I mean it. I'm a modern man that has adopted modern methods including germ warfare. (see what I did there?)

:clap:

+1. Rick..

[crashdive123]

I believe that the conversations in this topic have been civil. Hopefully they will remain so. Regardless of your personal level of concern regarding the Corona Virus (or any other potential illness), there is nothing wrong with trying to minimize your risks. Letting others know of the potential risks is a positive thing IMO. Weaponizing an illness (hasn't happened here) to create fear or gain profit is wrong. By profit I mean scaring people into doing something for your gain be it monetary or political.

[WolfVanZandt]

There have been movements to outlaw things like extreme sports (like my favorite - freestyle rock climbing) and, of course what's happened to playgrounds in the last 50 years or so.

My position is to not avoid risks but to approach them rationally. Learning happens when you take risks and that's how we adapt to situations.

People who never expose themselves to novel situation don't aren't prepared when the situation happens to them.

I hope you've read the research (or, at least reports based on them) that trace these "novel pathogens" to our "antiseptic culture". We're bombarded with antiseptics and antibodies in our foods, handwash, cleaners - and irresponsible prescribing by doctors who just want to please their paying patients to the point that competing pathogens are eliminated so the more Hardy, more dangerous pathogens get to grow and evolve.

The plagues during the middle ages almost wiped us out because of unregulated filth. We're going to finish the job by being too clean.

Aristotle was big on the middle road. He had a lot of things wrong, but I think he had this one right.

Too much risk aversion is deadly.

Survival is knowing how to build a knife, start a fire, or purify water. The sciences and technologies make up 1/5 of your local library. The rest is important, too. And knowledge isn't enough either. If you wait for a crisis to be ready for it, you won't survive. Ability to govern self and maintanence of an adaptible body are also important as is the ability to get away from our biases long enough to assess real reality.

[rebel]

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-italy-quarantines-entire-country-coronavirus

Interesting times

[WolfVanZandt]

Heh. To quote my favorite infamous psychologist, "How's that working for them." Wait for it....

[Cliff Booth]

Since this is a survival forum, let me make an admission...I'm a dirty person. I rarely wash my hands. I do wash then when I handle clean dishes and when I'm cooking for others. I don't mind dirt in my food when I'm camping. I enter nature with impunity defying rain, storm, mud, and animal byproducts (like ham. I love ham!) And I clean up messes without gloves (and I used to work at a camp for disabled children and adults...some of the messes I've cleaned up). I'll sleep anywhere...in a tub, under a bush, under a bridge. I'm an animal.

There's this thing about survival, though. If you aren't exposed to something, you don't develop defenses against it.

As dirty as I am. If I catch almost anything, I'm over it in three days. Injuries...three days. I had a broken arm once it took a week to heal. I've had two "novel viruses" it took five (whoa! Five!) days to get over.

Part of that is my natural immunity. My Neanderthal traits will kill off any virus...then they come after me. Fair trade. But a large part is that I avoid nothing and appreciate everything. Attitude is Big. I will live until I die and I appreciate (in the sense of art appreciation) everything in between.

Cliff, you sound like a very fearful person, or someone who wants everyone else to be fearful, or both. I hope you're actually reading other threads on this forum. You may end up in the woods one day.

You seem kind of all over the place. On the one hand I’m really fearful. On the other, everything is some crazy conspiracy against you. Did you read the last paragraph you wrote? Are you understanding how the first sentence and the next two are insanely contradictory?

Good luck to you man. You may be right and it may end up being no big deal here. I’m not sure random anecdotes and self-identified traits from an inferior hominid are going to do much for you.


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[Cliff Booth]

Heh. To quote my favorite infamous psychologist, "How's that working for them." Wait for it....

The quarantine in China has effectively stopped the disease in its tracks.


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[WolfVanZandt]

Aye. It's contradictory. I'm a psychologist so conflicted people don't surprise me.

According to a lot of anthropologist, Neanderthal wasn't necessarily inferior. But the traits that modern hominids carry from Neanderthal most certainly don't imply inferiority.

But, fact is, I think they'll, (the anecdotes and such) will serve me pretty well around people that know what I'm talking about.

[Cliff Booth]

Aye. It's contradictory. I'm a psychologist so conflicted people don't surprise me.

According to a lot of anthropologist, Neanderthal wasn't necessarily inferior. But the traits that modern hominids carry from Neanderthal most certainly don't imply inferiority.

But, fact is, I think they'll, (the anecdotes and such) will serve me pretty well around people that know what I'm talking about.

Most anthropologists are working with the Freemasons to keep you from voting.


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[WolfVanZandt]

Nah. But if you want to bust myths about Neanderthal, and you seem to need that, they're the ones you go to.

[Cliff Booth]

Nah. But if you want to bust myths about Neanderthal, and you seem to need that, they're the ones you go to.

Well you are in luck. You’’ve found one. Anything else you’d like to know?


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[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Both the cases in Indy are in self quarantine.

According to that chart above, if I get this thing when I check in to the hospital I'm going to tell them I'm 10-19 with no underlying health conditions and female. I should be over in a day or two.

You don't even have to get it really. All you have to do is self-identify as your description and that should take care of it.

Alan

[Cliff Booth]

You don't even have to get it really. All you have to do is self-identify as your description and that should take care of it.

Alan

Fortunately I identify as Batman. Bats can’t get this thing, right?


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[WolfVanZandt]

Well, since you seem to think that anthropologists are in league with the Masons, I don't think I want to ask you anything.

[Cliff Booth]

Well, since you seem to think that anthropologists are in league with the Masons, I don't think I want to ask you anything.

That’s just the kind of thinking that results in you giving up all your rights. Open your eyes.


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[WolfVanZandt]

And, by the way, we're off topic. I'm back on.

[Cliff Booth]

And, by the way, we're off topic. I'm back on.

I thought we already resolved the matter. The world’s leading epidemiologists are idiots and feces-caked hands and Neanderthal traits will render this virus powerless.


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[crashdive123]

Careful fellas. You are starting to head down a path that will lead you to a dead end. Get back on the main road.

[Cliff Booth]

In more interesting news, a CDC rep recently said you should be ready to bunker down and stay home if you are over 60.

US Stare department has advised against cruises. Has to suck for the college kids about to have spring break.


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[BENESSE]

In more interesting news, a CDC rep recently said you should be ready to bunker down and stay home if you are over 60.

US Stare department has advised against cruises. Has to suck for the college kids about to have spring break.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is not going to deter them. Do you remember being that age? Why, you're invincible.:cool:

[kyratshooter]

I remember spring break in college.

There is no way carona virus could live through all of that!

The generous application of alcohol would kill it.

[kyratshooter]

But on a different note, this morning the nation of Italy woke to find the entire realm under quarantine. Not a city or region, the entire nation.

No travel without proper documents, no gatherings of any kind, the Vatican is closed, sporting events canceled, all schools and universities closed, cafes and bars closed at 6pm, only essential workers still moving about.

Oddly they are still allowing shopping as long as the customers stay 1 meter separated. Lot of good that will do when a cough or sneeze spreads the virus 5 meters.

People over 60 have been recommended to stay INSIDE for the next three weeks.

Now remember that Italy has a historical precedence for this. In the 1300s the Black Death entered Europe through Italian ports. They don't want a repeat of that scenerio. After it got lose in Europe it swept through, then mutated and swept through again until 1/3 of the population was gone. After that it lay dormant to again mutate and pop up every few decades for the next 500 years. We actually lose more people to the Bubonic plague each year than the carona virus has taken in the U.S, so far. It thrives on the west coast and the western desert, imagine that.

The question is, are we as "wilderness survivors" prepared for the inevitable "bug in" that goes totally against the ninja boy scout code of the "bugout bag and an AK/AR" survivalist?

I am a member of several survival forums located outside our nation. Some of them have been going for many years. Suddenly I have discovered that these proponents of self sustained living, homesteading and extreme woodcraft do not have enough supplies to sustain themselves for 3 weeks, TP to last a week, no water other than a bucket under the drain pipe, very little OTC medication and like everyone else they are out looting the shelves for milk, bread and eggs while wearing a paint mask. Some of them have even owned up to living in apartment blocks in major urban areas rather than the quaint rural cottages they have shown on their posts and websites.

Are you really ready for a 3-6 week bug in?

Guess I better run to the store, I am down to 8 dozen eggs!

[WolfVanZandt]

And I'm 67. I'll be in Bluffs Park soon. Just did a 13 mile hike in Waterton Canyon.

[WolfVanZandt]

Kyrat. Aye, we have the plague out here and I haven't stayed in for that either.

I guess if they quarantine everyone then employers will need their workers back when it's done, if they survive.

This new cold going around isn't our worst enemy. It's the people "protecting us" from it.

[Fixit]

3weeks ? I could do 3 years . Now granted there would be some food fatigue toward the end.

[WolfVanZandt]

Well, according to the rule of four, a healthy person should be able to last 4weeks. That's a healthy person.

I would say "family and friends" but as soon as they bring you food, they're quarantined.

Okay, here's the score. You catch a cold. You're indoors for a week. You spread it around some because you were contagious before you even knew you had it. A few people who it's actually a danger to catches it. In the best of world's, they are nursed back to health (probably not here because everybody is too busy looking out for number one, so they die).

The government's plan - even if you're not sick, even if you're suspected of being around it, you're quarantined for two weeks. Good chance you lose your job. Around here with cost of living so high, you might end up on the street. If you have caught it, suddenly you're in a high risk group that you would not have been in normally. That scenario could be anyone, not just the few in a high risk group.

The plague was deadly for two big reasons (we have it here and people are not dropping like flies). First, raw sewage ran in the streets. Cholera was also a plague that killed a lot of people. The other thing is that the church, during the middle ages, thought that bathing was a sign of vanity and encouraged the masses to not bathe. Sanitation was not good back then. The church wasn't the government, but it might as well have been and it was no longer much into nursing the body.

To reiterate, government leaders and health organizations that don't know what the heck they're doing is far more dangerous than the Corona virus. They don't listen to what the people that actually do know what they're doing are saying. Did either Mayo or John Hopkins say anything about enforced quarantine? Is there any research out that recommends enforced quarantine?

Fixit, if you get locked in for 3 weeks and happen to come down with something really serious (not this cold), are you going to be able to nurse yourself back to health. Are you even going to be able to get out of bed?

The old saw for getting over a virus is still appropriate. Drink lots of (clean) water to stay hydrated, take something to control fever, (if you have a good doctor that won't just load you up on worthless antibiotics, call him - he'll tell you to get plenty of rest), and I'll add, eat a well balanced diet - whether you feel like it or not.

3 week quarantines is not a life saving measure.

[madmax]

I'm way to physically compromised to bug out on foot or bike. So bug in it is. We stocked up on a few things we have neglected to rotate but it wasn't up or Purell lol. It is funny how Italy has shut down and still people are, "Ho hum." It cant happen here. BTW. Everybody knows you can get reinforced. Right?

[Cliff Booth]

Just to put this hype into perspective:
The population of China is 1.6 billion people, the number of cases reported is plateauing, and the death rate is relatively low.
For 80,000 cases in China, only 0.005% of the population have had the virus.


Well, according to the rule of four, a healthy person should be able to last 4weeks. That's a healthy person.

I would say "family and friends" but as soon as they bring you food, they're quarantined.

Okay, here's the score. You catch a cold. You're indoors for a week. You spread it around some because you were contagious before you even knew you had it. A few people who it's actually a danger to catches it. In the best of world's, they are nursed back to health (probably not here because everybody is too busy looking out for number one, so they die).

The government's plan - even if you're not sick, even if you're suspected of being around it, you're quarantined for two weeks. Good chance you lose your job. Around here with cost of living so high, you might end up on the street. If you have caught it, suddenly you're in a high risk group that you would not have been in normally. That scenario could be anyone, not just the few in a high risk group.

The plague was deadly for two big reasons (we have it here and people are not dropping like flies). First, raw sewage ran in the streets. Cholera was also a plague that killed a lot of people. The other thing is that the church, during the middle ages, thought that bathing was a sign of vanity and encouraged the masses to not bathe. Sanitation was not good back then. The church wasn't the government, but it might as well have been and it was no longer much into nursing the body.

To reiterate, government leaders and health organizations that don't know what the heck they're doing is far more dangerous than the Corona virus. They don't listen to what the people that actually do know what they're doing are saying. Did either Mayo or John Hopkins say anything about enforced quarantine? Is there any research out that recommends enforced quarantine?

Fixit, if you get locked in for 3 weeks and happen to come down with something really serious (not this cold), are you going to be able to nurse yourself back to health. Are you even going to be able to get out of bed?

The old saw for getting over a virus is still appropriate. Drink lots of (clean) water to stay hydrated, take something to control fever, (if you have a good doctor that won't just load you up on worthless antibiotics, call him - he'll tell you to get plenty of rest), and I'll add, eat a well balanced diet - whether you feel like it or not.

3 week quarantines is not a life saving measure.

Johns Hopkins banned fans from attending their basketball tourney. China is the only country to have slowed the rate of growth of the virus to date. They did it via quarantine.

The virus spreads from person to person. Thus, keeping it from spreading involves limiting person to person contact. There's no rat flea to take out. Also, we have had a definitive treatment for the Bubonic Plague for years now, so you can't really compare it to something that emerged 10 weeks ago that we are still trying to understand.

[WolfVanZandt]

I didn't see anything on the Internet. Do you mean you can have supplied brought to you?

[Cliff Booth]

Harvard, Columbia, Vanderbilt, Princeton, and Stanford all cancelling classes. Harvard has called off classes until September.

[Cliff Booth]

I didn't see anything on the Internet. Do you mean you can have supplied brought to you?

I believe he meant to type "reinfected".

[Rick]

https://portraitsbyjenni.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/grumpy-old-man-puppet.jpg?w=584 (https://portraitsbyjenni.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/grumpy-old-man-puppet.jpg?w=584)

I still remember the 1300s. If anyone gets within 5 meters of me they get a fat lip. I say quarantine the whole country. That should cut down on those 20 somethings running all those red lights to get someplace 20 seconds sooner. I'm not worried about toilet paper. No one cares if their dog craps in someone else's yard. They shouldn't mind if I do. What will really mess them up is their inability to get to the vape store. That's what will kill them. They'll starve to death because no one knows how to cook. Everyone eats out. They'll stand in front of their stove just trying to figure out how to turn it on. Some people are so stressed out about this stupid disease. They just need a hug...around the neck...with a rope. Maybe if the government will pass another damn law and tax us that will stop the spread. Hey! Step back. You're getting in my space.

[Fixit]

What I am saying is where I live ,how I live and what I have on hand i could stay on May property for 3 years and not leave it . I don't see as a necessary outcome of this but it could be done. The idea is to self isolate before getting infected

[Rick]

And then you get an infected piece of mail and BOOM, you're dead. Or not. It could go either way.

[Cliff Booth]

And then you get an infected piece of mail and BOOM, you're dead. Or not. It could go either way.

3.4% of the time, it kills you every time.

[Fixit]

There is no phone , power of water lines where I live. USPS ,UPS nor FEDEX delivers where I live . If I stand in the right spot i can hit a cell tower of talk and the radio picks up but no TV

[WolfVanZandt]

Well, of course you can get reinfected, the same with a cold or the flu. One thing that seems to be contagious is mass insanity.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486765-harvard-cancels-in-person-classes-for-the-rest-of-the-semester

They have a viable option, they can go online.

[rebel]

Less than 20 have been killed by a mountain lion since 1890. Doesn’t mean I want to take a chance. Ask one of the “less than 20”.

[Cliff Booth]

Less than 20 have been killed by a mountain lion since 1890. Doesn’t mean I want to take a chance. Ask one of the “less than 20”.

Damn. I didn’t even realize mountain lions could carry the Coronavirus. The world just got that much scarier.


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[WolfVanZandt]

We have mountain lions around here. They rarely attack anyone. People that get attacked by mountain lions are almost always provoking the cat. (Like the people who want to have their pictures taken with the cute buffalo or moose). The key to not getting mailed by Bambi or Dumbo, is to understand the animals you might have to deal with. The reason we don't have a problem with the plague around here is that we understand the plague, the fleas and the prairie dogs that carry both.

You survive nature by understanding it...not by prepping

[rebel]

Lol, that wasn’t my intention but, it’ll work out. Seems like if we help when and where we can, things go pretty good.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

I prefer to stay home. I wouldn't go on a cruise at gunpoint. I get seasick at the slightest bit of wave action, so getting the coronavirus would be a blessing at that point. Inland bays and lakes, no problem, ocean, fetal position praying for death.

#1 wife woke up with fever last night. Trip to Germ Central (the Dr office), UTI, got a shot and some antibiotics, cardiologist for her tomorrow too. My two days of exposure to all the germs will be over until Thursday when I have to have my bloodwork done so I can find out I used to be perfectly healthy before I went to Doctor's offices three days in a row.

How long could I go with what is in the house? Indefinitely. Well water, vegetable garden and about 20 deer troop by the back fence every evening not to mention various sundry birds, squirrels, and such that inhabit the spread. Besides, I just don't eat that much any more....

The big problem would be meds. They come in 30 day supplies. I used to take half doses and get standard refills. That would give me some wriggle room if TSHTF. Probably should start doing that again.

Alan

[rebel]

I prefer to stay home. I wouldn't go on a cruise at gunpoint. I get seasick at the slightest bit of wave action, so getting the coronavirus would be a blessing at that point. Inland bays and lakes, no problem, ocean, fetal position praying for death.

#1 wife woke up with fever last night. Trip to Germ Central (the Dr office), UTI, got a shot and some antibiotics, cardiologist for her tomorrow too. My two days of exposure to all the germs will be over until Thursday when I have to have my bloodwork done so I can find out I used to be perfectly healthy before I went to Doctor's offices three days in a row.

How long could I go with what is in the house? Indefinitely. Well water, vegetable garden and about 20 deer troop by the back fence every evening not to mention various sundry birds, squirrels, and such that inhabit the spread. Besides, I just don't eat that much any more....

The big problem would be meds. They come in 30 day supplies. I used to take half doses and get standard refills. That would give me some wriggle room if TSHTF. Probably should start doing that again.

Alan

Is this bait?

[WolfVanZandt]

I'm taking notes about who I'll be visiting...just for a few days, mind you.

[Rick]

Hey Alan, those waves go Uuuup, then they go doooown. Then they go uuuup then they go doooown.


mountain lions could carry the Coronavirus Only the Zombie ones.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Hey Alan, those waves go Uuuup, then they go doooown. Then they go uuuup then they go doooown.

Only the Zombie ones.

Stooooooop!


Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Is this bait?

Only if the trolls are biting...


Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Is this bait?

One time I tried to go on a snapper fishing trip with my two oldest sons. I took dramamine for two days and didn't eat on the day of. I was alright on the trip out there and caught one snapper. Then ...... it happened. I was hanging off the stern chumming. Don't know what I was throwing up but there was plenty of it.

If the boat was stopped I was laying on the floor in the cabin. When the skipper would move to another reef I would go out and check on the boys. When the boat stopped, I would chum then back to the cabin. When we got back to the dock I stepped on the dock and it was over. No more sick... Damnedest thing. I love to fish, but not offshore.

Alan

[rebel]

which one is it?

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

which one is it?

Not sure I understand the question then.

Alan

[Cliff Booth]

We have mountain lions around here. They rarely attack anyone. People that get attacked by mountain lions are almost always provoking the cat. (Like the people who want to have their pictures taken with the cute buffalo or moose). The key to not getting mailed by Bambi or Dumbo, is to understand the animals you might have to deal with. The reason we don't have a problem with the plague around here is that we understand the plague, the fleas and the prairie dogs that carry both.

You survive nature by understanding it...not by prepping

That’s a load off my mind. I never approach wild animals. Should be safe from the Coronavirus.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rebel]

Not sure I understand the question then.

Alan
It’s alright. It’s pretty clear that you don’t and won’t. Eventually it will. As it will for all of us.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

wow.... that's deep...

Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

There's an interactive map in this article that will show #cases, active cases, deaths and most importantly, the #of those who have recovered from the virus.

do not download map


Of course everyone will draw their own conclusions. Mine is that there seems to be a significant number of recoveries. I would still like to see demographics on those who have died. I think it will be very telling.


Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

and then I find this

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2020/03/11/warning-you-must-not-download-this-dangerous-coronavirus-map/#4ebf863a3253


Alan

[Cliff Booth]

Someone was wanting Johns Hopkins info. Here you go:

A few things from Dr. Amesh Adalja at JH. It's more infectious and deadlier than flu. In the next 12-18 months around 600-990,000 dead and half the country infected. He uses a fairly low (in comparison to others) mortality rate of 0.6% for his predictions.

He didn't really talk about it, but that would completely overwhelm our hospitals.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Until I found out that the map I was looking at was possibly malware, .... my interpretation was that spread and new infections were plateauing/slowing and recoveries were increasing...

Alan

[Rick]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

Form your own opinions. I'm not about to worry about some guy predicting a disease that we only have less than a two month history on.

[Phaedrus]

I don't drink Corona so hopefully I'm safe!:eyepoke:

[BENESSE]

Well, there's no dispute the situation is changing daily in the US and for the worse. There are some crucial things we could be doing better. And IMO, that includes suspending travel from ALL foreign countries. Why the heck exempt UK, when people can just fly there and out to the US.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-testing-response-is-failing/

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Second graph is encouraging.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/03/10/us-coronavirus-map-tracking-united-states-outbreak/4945223002/

Alan

[Rick]

They just closed most of the schools here and eliminated all assemblies over 250 people around here.

[nell67]

They just closed most of the schools here and eliminated all assemblies over 250 people around here.
Yea, Louisville is shutting down everything. Even Kentucky Derby events scheduled thru April 5th.

[Cliff Booth]

Second graph is encouraging.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/03/10/us-coronavirus-map-tracking-united-states-outbreak/4945223002/

Alan

That is probably more a function of limited testing than any meaningful reduction in spread.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Second graph is encouraging.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/03/10/us-coronavirus-map-tracking-united-states-outbreak/4945223002/

Alan

Not so much any more....


Alan

[rebel]

And IMO, that includes suspending travel from ALL foreign

https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-testing-response-is-failing/

I did that 6 weeks ago

[BENESSE]

HIV drugs used to treat Corona successfully. I would think in dire circumstances and in the absence of a vaccaine this makes more sense than most things.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/hiv-drugs-are-being-used-as-part-of-coronavirus-treatment/

[BENESSE]

Being deathly ill and hearing "more testing is needed" despite some successes of the experimental treatment is idiotic. Why not let people decide for themselves along the lines of "the right to try"?

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Dr. Oz said, "If you are sick, take 80 milligrams of zinc daily, 250 milligrams of vitamin C twice daily, 250 milligrams of beta-glucan daily and take elderberry syrup or lozenges four times a day for five days ".

Well, he is a doctor....

I already take the Zinc (50 mg) and Vit C (1000 mg x 2 daily) as a matter of course but I know nothing about the other two.

Alan

[WolfVanZandt]

You folks realize this will be an every year thing. Of course, people won't lose their minds about it every year because the mass hysteria will have died down.

[WolfVanZandt]

Well, beta-glucan...blah, but elderberry is pretty good. It's in Ricola.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

The plain old flu kills thousands every year despite flu shots and everything else. Two years ago two days before Christmas the wife of a good friend of mine got a little sick. By that night she was a lot sick. He took her to the ER. They sent her home, said it might be the flu. Christmas Eve she decorated the Church. Christmas Eve night she went back to the ER. She was dead by daybreak Christmas morning. The flu. Perfectly healthy woman 60 years old dead in two days from the regular flu. I'll bet the same scenario played out thousands of times across America but there was no mass hysteria spending the rent money on toilet paper...

Alan

[nell67]

I think most of the folks buying up the toilet paper, bleach and hand sanitizer are not hoarding it, they are waiting for stores to be sold out and then reselling it for a mark-up. They are creating a market for themselves by buying it all. A lady in a neighboring county was posting a case of the small personal sized hand sanitizers (48 per case) for $50 plus shipping costs to your location last week. It's a money making scheme.

[Rick]

Well, he is a doctor....

You know what they call the guy that graduated last in his class...doctor.

[BENESSE]

There is also another aspect to hoarding. The production and supply chain can get disrupted if a lot of people start getting sick and not reporting to work. Or if China decides they'll start playing hardball and not let us have a $hitload of stuff we depend on them for. It's not hard to imagine that scenario--at least that's what's what crosses my mind.

I don't have the space to hoard in a NYC apt but I've always believed in have a few months supply of anything, even more for food and meds. That's just how I roll.

[BENESSE]

BTW, here are some additional suggestions on prevention, some of which I haven't heard before. Certainly no harm in implementing.

Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning: Take a deep breath and hold it for more than 10 seconds. If you do this successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, there is no fibrosis in the lungs; it basically indicates no infection. In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.


Also good advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid can kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and then the lungs. That's very dangerous.


SOME IMPORTANT FACTS:


If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold.
Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees C. (About 77 degrees F.) It hates the Sun.
If someone sneezes with it, it goes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface, wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it
Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
Can't stress enough - drink plenty of water!

[madmax]

No tp in our Publix. I have a stash of 800 grit thats good to go though.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Do you use the 800 grit on an orbital, vibrating, or belt sander?

Just curious as to the most efficient process....


Alan

[madmax]

No no. Off grid prepared. Hand tools only.

[BENESSE]

http://www.wilderness-survival.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=11961&stc=1

[BENESSE]

http://www.wilderness-survival.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=11962&stc=1

[Rick]

I had to go to the store this morning for normal stuff. Man! People are nuts. Bread and milk, gone. The longest check out line I've ever seen. They are creating an artificial shortage. People had cases and cases of water. Water! Do they think the area is going to become a desert? My son told me Disneyland had closed. I told him to cheer up. The sewage plant was still open. You have to keep stuff in perspective.

[Cliff Booth]

You folks realize this will be an every year thing. Of course, people won't lose their minds about it every year because the mass hysteria will have died down.

So the Johns Hopkins guy saying a million Americans might die not doing anything for you? I though Johns Hopkins was who we are supposed to listen to.

[Cliff Booth]

The plain old flu kills thousands every year despite flu shots and everything else. Two years ago two days before Christmas the wife of a good friend of mine got a little sick. By that night she was a lot sick. He took her to the ER. They sent her home, said it might be the flu. Christmas Eve she decorated the Church. Christmas Eve night she went back to the ER. She was dead by daybreak Christmas morning. The flu. Perfectly healthy woman 60 years old dead in two days from the regular flu. I'll bet the same scenario played out thousands of times across America but there was no mass hysteria spending the rent money on toilet paper...

Alan

We know how to treat the flu. We don't know how to treat this.

This is more infectious than flu.

This is deadlier than flu by a factor of 10 or more.

[Cliff Booth]

BTW, here are some additional suggestions on prevention, some of which I haven't heard before. Certainly no harm in implementing.

Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning: Take a deep breath and hold it for more than 10 seconds. If you do this successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, there is no fibrosis in the lungs; it basically indicates no infection. In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.


Also good advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid can kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and then the lungs. That's very dangerous.


SOME IMPORTANT FACTS:


If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold.
Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees C. (About 77 degrees F.) It hates the Sun.
If someone sneezes with it, it goes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface, wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it
Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
Can't stress enough - drink plenty of water!


Hmmm. Where did you find this? I'm pretty skeptical.

[WolfVanZandt]

Nell, it's both. Listen to what people are saying at the checkout counter. We overheard two ladies wondering whether they should buy more soap or hand sanitizer. One said, "No. We should get more hand sanitizer. They're saying the power companies will shut down."

There are quite a few doctors in the John Hopkins system. Purely by chance, you can expect some to be fear-mongers. Folks like Cliff cherry pick the few that have their viewpoint for their arguments. The rest of us go to John Hopkins (the recommendations page and the other pages on the John Hopkins site...not cherry-picked individuals...for our information....or other reliable sources.

Our greatest enemy is indeed fear itself and fear-mongers are it's prophets.

[WolfVanZandt]

Thanks, Benesse for the tips. Just one thing, this is the beginning of allergy season. With a lung inflammation (not necessarily an infection) you won't be able to hold your breath either. That particular test is laden with false positives.

[Cliff Booth]

Nell, it's both. Listen to what people are saying at the checkout counter. We overheard two ladies wondering whether they should buy more soap or hand sanitizer. One said, "No. We should get more hand sanitizer. They're saying the power companies will shut down."

There are quite a few doctors in the John Hopkins system. Purely by chance, you can expect some to be fear-mongers. Folks like Cliff cherry pick the few that have their viewpoint for their arguments. The rest of us go to John Hopkins (the recommendations page and the other pages on the John Hopkins site...not cherry-picked individuals...for our information....or other reliable sources.

Our greatest enemy is indeed fear itself and fear-mongers are it's prophets.

He's their senior scholar on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity. Not some random quack.

He's also specifically warned against being a toilet paper hoarding moron.

[Rick]

Hey, I don't hoard toilet paper. I can't deny the rest however.

[WolfVanZandt]

I don't either. But I do hoard crunchy snacks. I can't get enough of them!

[WolfVanZandt]

After 47 years in the medical community, both training 20 years in Auburn University training for a health profession and 20 years of practice, I am convinced that if an organization has initials that begin and end "A" they're evil to the core. That's not conspiracy theory, that's my experience, that's academic research articles, and that's news articles like:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/revolutionandrevelation/72407


https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/drug-prices


As a result, I don't trust much of anyone "out there". I will look at organizations like John Hopkins and the Mayo Clinic because they seem to be somewhat less infected by
corporate greed than most resources. But they also support the drug companies that are bleeding the country dry.

My real recommendation:

You folks have lived for how many years through how many crises that have turned out to be tempests in teapot stirred up by people who are concerned for their own interests? If you're too young for that, look to the past (I'm not stupid enough to appeal to the experience of older people). People don't study history now days and that's a crying ( and dangerous) shame. Study your own experiences. Ask why things happen the way you observe them to happen. Approach things critically and make rational decisions.

And don't swallow what fear-mongers want to feed you.

[Cliff Booth]

NCAA just gave up a billion in advertising revenue so you’d buy more drugs. Open your eyes people.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Cliff Booth]

These Italian doctors saying Northern Italy is completely overwhelmed must be just making bank on their crazy lies.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[crashdive123]

On a happier note...............my Christmas shopping is done.

https://i.imgur.com/jIIUcJm.jpg

[WolfVanZandt]

Cool. I love the decor.

Cliff, NCAA doesn't have an initial A. I just pinched myself. I'm awake.

[rebel]

Ummm....no surprise http://.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/national-guard-to-deploy-in-multiple-states-over-coronavirus-outbreak

[WolfVanZandt]

Dead link?

I couldn't open it.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

There's a limited number of ways to "treat" a virus. You either proactively treat it with a vaccine if there is one, or you try to keep the fever down and let it run it's course. There are some antiviral meds but I'm not sure how they work or if they work.

We believe you believe what you believe Cliff. Others have that right too. Caution is not the same thing as hand wringing.

Alan

[Rick]

Italy has about 15,000 cases nationally. I'm not certain that's overwhelmed but so be it. You seem to think that the medical community is ill equipped to handle such an outbreak yet you forget that the military has the reserve capacity to set up hospitals with like facilities in hot zones to add expanded capacity. That is true of National Guard and regular military. Most nations have that capacity. This is one more disease that will pass. Practice proper hygiene, keep your finger out of your nose, don't sneeze on each other and stop hoarding stuff.

[WolfVanZandt]

And none of us are blowing this thing off. It's just that we know that hysteria isn't the answer. Also, many of us are old enough to have been stung multiple times by the health system in the past. You're not going to convince us if their purity and self-denying attitudes.

Also, "open your eyes folks" will not win you a cupie doll. Being an undergrad in anthropology doesn't make you an anthropologist. Many of us have been around several times, probably, before you were born. We're not stupid.

[Cliff Booth]

There's a limited number of ways to "treat" a virus. You either proactively treat it with a vaccine if there is one, or you try to keep the fever down and let it run it's course. There are some antiviral meds but I'm not sure how they work or if they work.

We believe you believe what you believe Cliff. Others have that right too. Caution is not the same thing as hand wringing.

Alan

I’m probably exposed to more people every day than the majority of the board, but I’m still at work putting my face in other peoples’.

All I really care about anyone here accepting is: This is a serious situation. This is not some conspiracy. Just because Costco shoppers are acting crazy does not mean the entirety of the situation is crazy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Rick]

I can actually remember being quarantined in my home as a kid. I had the mumps. They placed a sign on the front door. That was before MMR vaccines. My buddy down the street got quarantined as well but I don't remember if that was for mumps or measles. Those of us that are really old remember what life was like before vaccines. I tell my kids GET THE SHOT! My son told me today he was worried about being quarantined (missing work). I said you don't know what quarantined means.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Mumps, measles, etc... sick like a sombich and all there was was aspirin and a cool washrag. Don't bite the thermometer cause then mercury would run down your throat. Ever had a Merthiolate swab in your throat? Tastes terrible, works great. Got a fever? Pile on the blankets until you sweat it out. Thank God I came along after tetanus shots. I would have died before I could walk. Seems like I was getting those things all the time. Most of the time if we got sick, we were just sick, freakin 104 fever, delirious, ice came from ice trays and it was hard to keep up with a good strong fever in NO AC.

Ah, the good old days before Nanny Sam took such good care of us.


Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Cliff, I think you said it was more infectious and 10 times as deadly a while back.

40 dead as of today. Only 349,999,960 Americans left to go.

More people died on US highways today than of the coronavirus so far.

But the CDC today suggested that everyone spend all their money on hand sanitizer, baby wipes and TP..... Oh, wait they didn't say that....


Alan

[Rick]

The greatest remedy on the face of the earth was mom's chicken soup and goose fat generously applied to the neck and covered with a flannel rag. That would cure leprosy. Coal oil and sugar never cured anything but you professed to be cured so you didn't get another dose. That was some nasty stuff.

[Cliff Booth]

Cliff, I think you said it was more infectious and 10 times as deadly a while back.

40 dead as of today. Only 349,999,960 Americans left to go.

More people died on US highways today than of the coronavirus so far.

But the CDC today suggested that everyone spend all their money on hand sanitizer, baby wipes and TP..... Oh, wait they didn't say that....


Alan

I said that or the head of the NIH said that?

Do you understand how exponential growth works? The idea that it isn't a big deal because it's not serious right now is just hilarious. Do you recall what Italy looked like a couple of weeks ago?

[Cliff Booth]

And none of us are blowing this thing off. It's just that we know that hysteria isn't the answer. Also, many of us are old enough to have been stung multiple times by the health system in the past. You're not going to convince us if their purity and self-denying attitudes.

Also, "open your eyes folks" will not win you a cupie doll. Being an undergrad in anthropology doesn't make you an anthropologist. Many of us have been around several times, probably, before you were born. We're not stupid.

Some recent Wolf quotes:

"the flu is scarier. Cars are definitely scarier."

"Now they're (China) losing there minds over a cold?"


"This is not a pandemic"- You then implied China is faking all this in order to sell surgical masks.

"Heck, if we're all quarantined on election day, we just won't have an election, will we?"

"If you have a compromised immune system, you should be concerned about this virus, but otherwise, it's not a big deal."

"rates are tools for mass manipulation."

"Government definitely wants you to stay inside."

"And what I'm also saying is that what marketers, politicians, and big name business people want is for you to lose your marbles."
Yeah, panic has really done wonders for the value of big business stocks.

"I will call it no big deal as long as the medical experts (in my case, John Hopkins and Mayo - hmmm, now I'm hungry) call it no big deal."
I bring up JH canceling sporting events and their head infectious disease guy saying it's a potential catastrophe and now that's also written off as fear-mongering.

"This new cold"

There's probably a few more in there. Sure seems like you are blowing it off as a minor issue and having a hard time deciding between politicians, big business, drug companies, media, China, and whichever other crazy conspiracy.

I'll continue to post expert opinion and statistical analysis. You can take solace in possibly being older than me.

[rebel]

Lol. Two weeks ago i said to the kid that he should get some provisions. As usual I was given the nah. Today he can’t find any TP. Bend over and wait for the garden hose. Lol

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

I said that or the head of the NIH said that?

Do you understand how exponential growth works?

Yes, and so does the toilet paper industry....


Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Give it up Cliff. I'm hopeless. I lived through imminent crispy critter death of the Cold War, the mind bending 70's, Y2K, then the Rapture left me behind, Obama, and now this exponentially deadly disease.... I ain't fraid of nuthin, ceptin that curly headed woman in the TV room....

I hope you're wrong Cliff. Gloom and Doom is the pits...


Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

The greatest remedy on the face of the earth was mom's chicken soup and goose fat generously applied to the neck and covered with a flannel rag. That would cure leprosy. Coal oil and sugar never cured anything but you professed to be cured so you didn't get another dose. That was some nasty stuff.

I never had the goose fat remedy, probably because not geese were at hand. Vick's Vapo Rub was my mom's go to remedy.

The Doctor we went to would give you a shot then ask what was wrong with us. If we found out that we were going to the Dr everybody got well real fast. We didn't have any inclination to fake sickness to miss school. School held no horrors like staying home sick.

Alan

[WolfVanZandt]

Mustrola...you haven't lived until. And Sal Hapatica
Boy, what they did to us!

[crashdive123]

I can actually remember being quarantined in my home as a kid. I had the mumps. They placed a sign on the front door. That was before MMR vaccines. My buddy down the street got quarantined as well but I don't remember if that was for mumps or measles. Those of us that are really old remember what life was like before vaccines. I tell my kids GET THE SHOT! My son told me today he was worried about being quarantined (missing work). I said you don't know what quarantined means.

Remember it well. I was relegated to the hide-a-bed in the living room while the doctor (with his little black bag) made house calls.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

We had a regular ward. My two next youngest sisters and I all had the damn things at the same time. We were all in one bedroom together. All I remember is how dark and gloomy it was in there. The moaning and groaning and crying and stuff didn't help any either. Then we all got the measles and the next year the chicken pox and German Measles, in addition to my youngest sister being born. I really don't know how my mom did it. She was a Super Mom!

Alan

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

Mustrola...you haven't lived until. And Sal Hapatica
Boy, what they did to us!

I don't know about those things. That's probably a good thing.

Alan

[rebel]

Do your Best and that’s it

[WolfVanZandt]

Aye. They had a laxative called "black draught". It was advertised as "mild". If it was mild, so is strychnine. There were some terrible things back then to help cure hookyitis.

[Alan R McDaniel Jr]

We learned early on no to mention feeling sick, and certainly not IRREGULARITY at my grandmother's house. She had some "cures" that would make a witch doctor blanche!

When we moved, I was going through some of my old stuff and I found a letter one of my little sisters wrote to me during a Summer stay at my grandmother's house. She felt the need to tell me she had "thrown up" her red worm medicine. Momaw took visits as an opportunity to cure anything we had for the whole year. I don't remember having worms.

I was always up and outta there with my grandfather and stayed gone with him all day, so I was safe. My sisters were trapped.

Alan

[WolfVanZandt]

There's a book, Henley's Twentieth Century Formulas, Recipes, and Processes. In addition to being fascinating, and even useful if you know what you're doing, it also makes me wonder how humanity survived to the present day

http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/53143

[WolfVanZandt]

Ah, okay, the whole, huge tome is here:

https://archive.org/details/cu31924004933945/page/n6/mode/2up