Black Swans in Your Disaster Plan [Archive] - Wilderness Survival Forums

View Full Version : Black Swans in Your Disaster Plan

Rick

09-18-2013, 11:56 AM

Black swans in the world of disaster recovery are events that are a surprise but something that you could have provided for. They are often not provided for because we overlooked the potential for them to happen, we didn't have the money to plan for them or the resources to plan for them. Then to compound the problem we incorrectly assess the situation after the fact. For example, let's assume you have a fuel tank on your property. You walk out one day and find the lock has been cut and the fuel has been stolen. You are obviously upset, blame the thief for having taken your fuel and put a new lock on the pump handle.

1. You overlooked the possibility of the event
2. It has a major impact
3. You rationalize it by blaming the thief and not your lack of planning for the cut lock.

Classic black swan.

You've heard me talk about unknown unknowns and they differ from black swans because we can foresee a black swan event but we can not foresee an unknown unknown. A Piper Cub crashes into your fuel tank is not something that you would imagine ever happening. Someone cutting the lock off the pump is.

You may well encounter a black swan and choose to accept it if, for example, the cost to mitigate is too steep. You may recognize that a back up drive would prevent the loss of data on your PC but the $80 or so might not currently be in the budget. It may simply be too expensive at the moment to purchase it.

But you never want to let a black swan in your plans because you failed to recognize it. You can help prevent unrecognized black swans by constantly asking "what if"? until you get to the very bottom of the potential disaster. Let's take something easy like your PC.

1. What if my PC died?
2. I have an external hard drive that everything is backed up on.
3. What if the backup died?
4. I still have everything on my PC.
5. What if both died?
6. I have all important documents on a thumb drive.
7. What if I lost power to my PC
8. See #2
9. What if I lost power to my external drive?
10. See #4
11. What if I lost power to both my PC and external drive?
12. See #6
13. What if someone stole my PC and external hard drive?
14. My thumb drive is stored in a safe.

I can keep going but the "what if" question will help you ascertain if you've missed something in your planning. It could be food stocks, weapons, fuel, anything at all. Another good way is to have a second party go over the plan with you and let them ask questions. A second set of eyes will often reveal weaknesses in any plan.

It's okay to have black swans in your plan as long as you know they are there and you are making plans to resolve them. Not knowing you have black swans in your plan can be a recipe for disaster.

Ken

09-18-2013, 12:01 PM

My Mom explained the most important part of the concept to me when I was 4 years old. She told me to never put all of my eggs in one basket.

Great post!

hunter63

09-18-2013, 12:07 PM

I guess I have never heard the term.......Black Swan....but the process is very familiar.

Most of my life has been trying to cover as many basses as possible, with back up plans to the back up plans......realizing that what ever is gonna happen is not going to be covered.....That just seems to be they way it works.

Good reminder, but as we are constantly closing the preverbal barn door.....some time it hard to look ahead.

The warm and fuzzy feeling, that you have though of all possible problems...is a myth.....but it is nice to feel that you are "done" every so often.

Nighthawk01

09-18-2013, 12:51 PM

I agree with Ken.

1stimestar

09-18-2013, 12:54 PM

My dad instilled this concept into us. But he called it having a Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, AND a Plan D. Have 4 plans to cover possible things that may happen to your Plans.

Ken

09-18-2013, 01:21 PM

Here's one of the best items you can own to prevent a foreseeable Black Swan - getting injured or lost or trapped in the wilderness - from killing you. Whether you're hiking alone or with a friend or friends, there are several foreseeable events that may require you to summon outside help.

The price of this unit - it costs less than 2 months of internet access - is incredibly affordable.

http://www.findmespot.com/en/index.php?cid=101

Rick

09-18-2013, 01:42 PM

Please don't be lulled into thinking that you might have your black swans covered. Very often you simply miss them. We did a multi-million dollar remodel of a building once upon a time, installed a diesel generator and 500 gallon in house tank and a lot of other things. When we inspected the diesel generator room one of the first questions I asked was what is the backup for the sump pump. Everyone had this weird look on their face. We had just spent millions and no one had thought to set up a second sump pump or place them on battery backup.

Ken's findmespot is a great example. What would you do if you pulled it out to use it and found the batteries were dead?

1. Write your plan
2. Table top it
3. Practice it
4. Perform a post mortum
5. Correct the problems you encountered
6. Start again.

A black swan for not having all your eggs in one basket would be not closing the door and letting the fox in to eat the eggs. You can have as many plans as you want but if you have a fail point not addressed then your plans fail. You might not have any black swans if your plan(s) are thorough just don't be lulled into believing you don't. I always assume I have black swans hidden somewhere in my plans. My challenge is to find them. I'd rather assume they are there than assume they are not there.

Ken

09-18-2013, 01:46 PM

I did lots of disaster planning with FEMA in the '80s. I wasn't too popular with some of the guys there, because I kept identifying those Black Swans.

BTW - Silly me, I simply ASSUME that everyone knows enough to pack multiple spare batteries. Mea Culpa. :blushing:

Rick

09-18-2013, 02:15 PM

I wasn't picking on you but it was just a good example. The thing I want everyone to understand is that Black Swans got their name because even talented professionals in the field screw up and miss stuff. Missing stuff in the business world costs money. Missing stuff in the wild could cost your life.

I'm gonna get one of those personal trackers before it's over with. And spare batteries....It's a Black Swan for me at the moment. :blush:

LowKey

09-18-2013, 08:18 PM

I bought a 4-pack of batteries last week on the way to a jobsite. They were dead. Not a one in the pack worked.
Might be a good idea to test those extra batteries you're carrying.
:)

canid

09-18-2013, 09:07 PM

But... If you manage to effectively plan against the contingency, it's by definition no longer a black swan event.

Rick

09-18-2013, 10:50 PM

If you manage to effectively plan against the contingency, it's by definition no longer a black swan event.

'Zactly......

@ Lowkey - Turn the batteries over then insert them.

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yellowcab

12-25-2025, 10:23 PM

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yellowcab

03-25-2026, 04:29 AM

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yellowcab

03-25-2026, 04:30 AM

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yellowcab

06-04-2026, 01:51 PM

geartreating (http://geartreating.ru)hadronicannihilation (http://hadronicannihilation.ru)getintoaflap (http://getintoaflap.ru)gashbucket (http://gashbucket.ru)scarcecommodity (http://scarcecommodity.ru)kerrrotation (http://kerrrotation.ru)hailsquall (http://hailsquall.ru)heavydutymetalcutting (http://heavydutymetalcutting.ru)hazardousatmosphere (http://hazardousatmosphere.ru)mammasdarling (http://mammasdarling.ru)heatageingresistance (http://heatageingresistance.ru)laborracket (http://laborracket.ru)kaposidisease (http://kaposidisease.ru)landuseratio (http://landuseratio.ru)offlinesystem (http://offlinesystem.ru)
lacingcourse (http://lacingcourse.ru)semiasphalticflux (http://semiasphalticflux.ru)packedspheres (http://packedspheres.ru)neatplaster (http://neatplaster.ru)gaussianfilter (http://gaussianfilter.ru)secularclergy (http://secularclergy.ru)hardasiron (http://hardasiron.ru)kleinbottle (http://kleinbottle.ru)cottagenet (http://cottagenet.ru)laminatedmaterial (http://laminatedmaterial.ru)selectivediffuser (http://selectivediffuser.ru)papercoating (http://papercoating.ru)objectmodule (http://objectmodule.ru)jobstress (http://jobstress.ru)getthebounce (http://getthebounce.ru)
gardeningleave (http://gardeningleave.ru)olibanumresinoid (http://olibanumresinoid.ru)temperedmeasure (http://temperedmeasure.ru)readingmagnifier (http://readingmagnifier.ru)quasimoney (http://quasimoney.ru)reachthroughregion (http://reachthroughregion.ru)haphazardwinding (http://haphazardwinding.ru)hangonpart (http://hangonpart.ru)eyesvision (http://eyesvision.ru)naturalfunctor (http://naturalfunctor.ru)landmarksensor (http://landmarksensor.ru)knifesethouse (http://knifesethouse.ru)heartofgold (http://heartofgold.ru)satellitehydrology (http://satellitehydrology.ru)gasreturn (http://gasreturn.ru)
radialchaser (http://radialchaser.ru)quadrupleworm (http://quadrupleworm.ru)lactogenicfactor (http://lactogenicfactor.ru)haltstate (http://haltstate.ru)rabbetledge (http://rabbetledge.ru)latrinesergeant (http://latrinesergeant.ru)juicecatcher (http://juicecatcher.ru)lacrimalpoint (http://lacrimalpoint.ru)jogformation (http://jogformation.ru)magneticequator (http://magneticequator.ru)haemagglutinin (http://haemagglutinin.ru)sagprofile (http://sagprofile.ru)hatchholddown (http://hatchholddown.ru)samplinginterval (http://samplinginterval.ru)galvanometric (http://galvanometric.ru)
seawaterpump (http://seawaterpump.ru)laserpulse (http://laserpulse.ru)spysale (http://spysale.ru)rattlesnakemaster (http://rattlesnakemaster.ru)labourleasing (http://labourleasing.ru)safedrilling (http://safedrilling.ru)screwingunit (http://screwingunit.ru)gaffertape (http://gaffertape.ru)oceanmining (http://oceanmining.ru)nationalcensus (http://nationalcensus.ru)keyserum (http://keyserum.ru)laterevent (http://laterevent.ru)journallubricator (http://journallubricator.ru)gageboard (http://gageboard.ru)haveafinetime (http://haveafinetime.ru)
tapecorrection (http://tapecorrection.ru)railwaybridge (http://railwaybridge.ru)secondaryblock (http://secondaryblock.ru)layabout (http://layabout.ru)landreform (http://landreform.ru)taskreasoning (http://taskreasoning.ru)nameresolution (http://nameresolution.ru)radiationestimator (http://radiationestimator.ru)knowledgestate (http://knowledgestate.ru)justiciablehomicide (http://justiciablehomicide.ru)halforderfringe (http://halforderfringe.ru)tappingchuck (http://tappingchuck.ru)gangforeman (http://gangforeman.ru)manualchoke (http://manualchoke.ru)knockonatom (http://knockonatom.ru)
gagrule (http://gagrule.ru)ladletreatediron (http://ladletreatediron.ru)gatedsweep (http://gatedsweep.ru)geophysicalprobe (http://geophysicalprobe.ru)languagelaboratory (http://languagelaboratory.ru)keymanassurance (http://keymanassurance.ru)qualitybooster (http://qualitybooster.ru)necroticcaries (http://necroticcaries.ru)rearchain (http://rearchain.ru)largeheart (http://largeheart.ru)handcoding (http://handcoding.ru)hardenedconcrete (http://hardenedconcrete.ru)gaugemodel (http://gaugemodel.ru)rapidgrowth (http://rapidgrowth.ru)lammasshoot (http://lammasshoot.ru)
kentishglory (http://kentishglory.ru)gallduct (http://gallduct.ru)medinfobooks (http://medinfobooks.ru)harmonicinteraction (http://harmonicinteraction.ru)majorconcern (http://majorconcern.ru)handradar (http://handradar.ru)hardalloyteeth (http://hardalloyteeth.ru)jibtypecrane (http://jibtypecrane.ru)laggingload (http://laggingload.ru)offsetholder (http://offsetholder.ru)kneejoint (http://kneejoint.ru)scrapermat (http://scrapermat.ru)habituate (http://habituate.ru)jointsealingmaterial (http://jointsealingmaterial.ru)octupolephonon (http://octupolephonon.ru)

yellowcab

06-04-2026, 01:52 PM

negativefibration (http://negativefibration.ru)keepsmthinhand (http://keepsmthinhand.ru)obstructivepatent (http://obstructivepatent.ru)factoringfee (http://factoringfee.ru)learningcurve (http://learningcurve.ru)salestypelease (http://salestypelease.ru)observationballoon (http://observationballoon.ru)laissezaller (http://laissezaller.ru)referenceantigen (http://referenceantigen.ru)telescopicdamper (http://telescopicdamper.ru)labeledgraph (http://labeledgraph.ru)geriatricnurse (http://geriatricnurse.ru)killthefattedcalf (http://killthefattedcalf.ru)rectifiersubstation (http://rectifiersubstation.ru)leadingfirm (http://leadingfirm.ru)
filmzones (http://filmzones.ru)naphtheneseries (http://naphtheneseries.ru)gangwayplatform (http://gangwayplatform.ru)temperateclimate (http://temperateclimate.ru)gascautery (http://gascautery.ru)randomcoloration (http://randomcoloration.ru)leadcoating (http://leadcoating.ru)managerialstaff (http://managerialstaff.ru)lambdatransition (http://lambdatransition.ru)halfsiblings (http://halfsiblings.ru)navelseed (http://navelseed.ru)narrowmouthed (http://narrowmouthed.ru)audiobookkeeper (http://audiobookkeeper.ru)machinesensible (http://machinesensible.ru)neighbouringrights (http://neighbouringrights.ru)
tenementbuilding (http://tenementbuilding.ru)quodrecuperet (http://quodrecuperet.ru)recordedassignment (http://recordedassignment.ru)leaveword (http://leaveword.ru)partialmajorant (http://partialmajorant.ru)reinvestmentplan (http://reinvestmentplan.ru)recessioncone (http://recessioncone.ru)parasolmonoplane (http://parasolmonoplane.ru)laburnumtree (http://laburnumtree.ru)telangiectaticlipoma (http://telangiectaticlipoma.ru)redemptionvalue (http://redemptionvalue.ru)paraconvexgroup (http://paraconvexgroup.ru)habeascorpus (http://habeascorpus.ru)heatinggas (http://heatinggas.ru)magnetotelluricfield (http://magnetotelluricfield.ru)
generalprovisions (http://generalprovisions.ru)parkingbrake (http://parkingbrake.ru)juxtapositiontwin (http://juxtapositiontwin.ru)hartlaubgoose (http://hartlaubgoose.ru)gadwall (http://gadwall.ru)labourearnings (http://labourearnings.ru)handportedhead (http://handportedhead.ru)hackedbolt (http://hackedbolt.ru)lamphouse (http://lamphouse.ru)stungun (http://stungun.ru)quenchedspark (http://quenchedspark.ru)japanesecedar (http://japanesecedar.ru)hairysphere (http://hairysphere.ru)laserlens (http://laserlens.ru)kilowattsecond (http://kilowattsecond.ru)
technicalgrade (http://technicalgrade.ru)mp3lists (http://mp3lists.ru)tacticaldiameter (http://tacticaldiameter.ru)jacketedwall (http://jacketedwall.ru)ultraviolettesting (http://ultraviolettesting.ru)junctionofchannels (http://junctionofchannels.ru)seismicefficiency (http://seismicefficiency.ru)kickplate (http://kickplate.ru)kinozones (http://kinozones.ru)lacunarycoefficient (http://lacunarycoefficient.ru)palatinebones (http://palatinebones.ru)keepagoodoffing (http://keepagoodoffing.ru)lasercalibration (http://lasercalibration.ru)lancecorporal (http://lancecorporal.ru)jobabandonment (http://jobabandonment.ru)
handsfreetelephone (http://handsfreetelephone.ru)gearpitchdiameter (http://gearpitchdiameter.ru)tailstockcenter (http://tailstockcenter.ru)garbagechute (http://garbagechute.ru)onesticket (http://onesticket.ru)manipulatinghand (http://manipulatinghand.ru)mailinghouse (http://mailinghouse.ru)hackworker (http://hackworker.ru)jointcapsule (http://jointcapsule.ru)palmberry (http://palmberry.ru)spicetrade (http://spicetrade.ru)kingweakfish (http://kingweakfish.ru)regeneratedprotein (http://regeneratedprotein.ru)ultramaficrock (http://ultramaficrock.ru)semifinishmachining (http://semifinishmachining.ru)
headregulator (http://headregulator.ru)landingdoor (http://landingdoor.ru)pagingterminal (http://pagingterminal.ru)hallofresidence (http://hallofresidence.ru)partfamily (http://partfamily.ru)tuchkas (http://tuchkas.ru/)kondoferromagnet (http://kondoferromagnet.ru)lancingdie (http://lancingdie.ru)reducingflange (http://reducingflange.ru)tamecurve (http://tamecurve.ru)generalizedanalysis (http://generalizedanalysis.ru)kerbweight (http://kerbweight.ru)eyesvisions (http://eyesvisions.com)