Why I'm So Positive [Archive] - Wilderness Survival Forums

Rick

03-17-2008, 08:46 AM

Positive in attitude, not certain I'm right.

I've received a couple of PMs wanting to know why I continue to disagree with folks that think the economy is in trouble. So I thought it might help if I did a couple of paragraphs to explain myself.

I can only offer up what I know about history, macro economics, business, and my own feelings. My view is this is just another economic cycle that regularly occurs once or twice a generation. It's a correcting action and in this case a correction primarily to the housing industry but also to the loose lending policies that have developed in this country along with the increasing debt burden that goes with the lending. It's not all rosy to be sure. It's going to get a lot worse. A LOT worse. But it will get better....in my opinion.

Am I convinced you are wrong if you predict a crash. Not at all. I don't THINK it will happen based on what I know and our economic history but you could be right. More importantly, there are several on here that are adamant about the dire state of the economy and only a couple of us that express opposing views. I think it's important for both camps to state their position and to state their sources so those who don't know or haven't made up their mind can see both sides of the coin and make their own decision as to what they believe.

I won't hesitate to say when I think you are wrong and I expect you to do the same with me. Tell me why you think I'm wrong, be factual, support your position by stating your sources and I just might learn something. I am very appreciative every time that occurs. Who knows, you might just win me over. (Naaah.)

In any case, both of us DO agree on being responsible, living within your means, not carrying a heavy debt load, and doing SOMETHING to invest in your future. What you invest in is up to you. We also agree on being prepared for whatever the future holds be it natural, man made, or economic in nature.

I respect your position even if I don't agree with it. Both of us have dredged up a LOT of great information for others to read through. Hopefully, they can learn from it and make up their own mind if they haven't already done so.

Sourdough

03-17-2008, 09:11 AM

Beo

03-17-2008, 09:15 AM

Keep the positive attitude Rick, its great.

canid

03-17-2008, 09:21 AM

i'm with you there rick. you won't see me trading my cash all in for silver and pallets of spam just because things are getting a bit bumpy. although i couldn't rub two cans together at the moment anyway, heh.

Rick

03-17-2008, 09:24 AM

Everything you said is true, Hopeak. But put yourself in the CEO's position. It's no different than if the banker is on the phone saying you're late again on your house payment. Do you tell him the truth, you aren't going to send a payment, or do you try to buy some type hoping to uncover some funds? Most would buy time.

That's exactly what the CEO did, in my opinion. Had he came out last week and said we're in the dumpster what do you think would have happened? Exactly the same thing for sure but the difference is he would have had no chance to recover (if he had any at all). It's like pulling the plug on your own boat. Not many want to do that.

Had he worked something out and saved the company, no one would have been the wiser and they would have chugged right along.

This is just one of many companies that are going to close their doors. Heavily leveraged companies will not survive this downturn. Those will little or no cash reserve will fail, too. It's all part and parcel of every down turn. That, unfortunately, translates to jobs and to people's savings and, often, retirement.

But.....you knew all that.

Canadian-guerilla

03-17-2008, 09:34 AM

So explain to me how Bear Stearn's book value was $81.00 and the company is Bankrupt....? How many other company's are lying. Are all the company's lying? No but which one is and which is not. Thousands just lost there jobs, and billions of dollars just vanished.

money doesn't vanish, it just transfers hands.
in 1929 people lost their houses, but the houses didn't vanish, they just had new owners

when this market crashes, it will be the greatest wealth transfer in history

Sourdough

03-17-2008, 09:36 AM

EXACTLY.......I want to be clear.......I want everything to be stable.....I want a strong America and a strong U.S. Dollar. I am "NOT" one looking for , wishing for, anarchy.

We need to establish "TRUST"........or all the baby boomer's are going to panic. And then you have a self fulfilling prophecy.

Rick

03-17-2008, 09:38 AM

Canid - Pallets of SPAM? Let's not be too hasty about not unloading our cash. We might want to think about this. SPAM is good. If they just had a can of gold spam......

Sourdough

03-17-2008, 09:39 AM

money doesn't vanish, it just transfers hands.
in 1929 people lost their houses, but the houses didn't vanish, they just had new owners

when this market crashes, it will be the greatest wealth transfer in history

C G, This type of money (Derivatives) can vanish, because it was fake smoke and mirrors to start with.

Rick

03-17-2008, 09:42 AM

It's not the money that vanishes. It's the Economic Value. A share of stock worth $20 one day and $10 the next lost no money. It lost $10 a share of economic value.

Rick

03-17-2008, 09:44 AM

Hopeak - I don't invest in derivatives nor do I invest in investments that do. If you've ever seen the formulas used in those you'd back away holding a cross as a weapon against the evil.:eek:

canid

03-17-2008, 09:44 AM

i will say i may be picking a bad time to start a luxury product business.

Sourdough

03-17-2008, 09:49 AM

If I create a counter party trade to off set the risk of derivatives I sell to The Calif. pension fund. And I sell the counter party derivatives to the Ohio pension fund. I get to price that derivative that I fabricated. The counter party derivative could be worth anything or nothing.

Sourdough

03-17-2008, 09:51 AM

Hopeak - I don't invest in derivatives nor do I invest in investments that do. If you've ever seen the formulas used in those you'd back away holding a cross as a weapon against the evil.:eek:

My point...PERFECTLY. You don't know what you are buying. derivatives are everywhere.

Rick

03-17-2008, 10:25 AM

Your point is very true. I can only give directives to my financial planner and then investigate on my own. There are so many vehicles to invest in that DON'T include derivatives and there are a lot of fund managers that feel the same way you and I do so they won't invest in them. There are options out there you just have to investigate what you are investing in and know what the fund manager's philosophy is.

Do I have money in derivatives somewhere? Probably. You probably can't avoid all of them you just have to do the best you can.

Rick

03-17-2008, 10:31 AM

Here is something else for everyone to consider. Every market, up or down, has winners. The key is to figure out where the money is and then act on it. Ask yourself what will happen in the current down market? Foreclosures, yep. Repo's, yep. Closed businesses. Now, how do you make money off of that?

1. Does your bank need a manager to handle the increased foreclosures? Someone that can do a walk through when the house is empty. Document it's condition. Provide the loan manager with a write up and pictures of the property? Maintain the property. Do a security check. Get the picture?

2. Does your bank manager need someone to track down repos? Someone to haul or drive vehicles to auction? Detail and clean up the vehicles for resale?

3. Can you buy up add lots of the closed business for resale? How about the store fixtures and/or furniture?

See what I mean? There are opportunities out there. You just have to think the situation through and determine if you want to invest your time in one of the solutions.

Tony uk

03-17-2008, 01:21 PM

Pifftttt, We all know its how much coffee you have :)

Very nice Rick, Keep up your posititive attitude, It'll do you better in the long run, Its a theroy that people with better attitudes are less likely to suffer mental problems :D

Beo

03-17-2008, 01:24 PM

Twinkies make ya happy, and there srock is always rising:D

Ole WV Coot

03-18-2008, 12:44 AM

This govt bailout is a bunch of garbage. I hate to see people rewarded for stupidity. I did an extensive review of my investments. My broker says he agrees with me that last fall we should have bit the bullet and let stupidity take its course, I ain't bragging about bailing out when the dow was over 14. IRA wise I still buy funds, but income wise I stick to decent dividends. Guess everyone knows this but I sure ain't gonna stuff a mattress I will keep on buying what I think are bargains, just be more aware.

Rick

03-18-2008, 07:20 AM

J.P.Morgan Chase up 8.2%!!

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scarcecommodity (http://scarcecommodity.ru)scrapermat (http://scrapermat.ru)screwingunit (http://screwingunit.ru)seawaterpump (http://seawaterpump.ru)secondaryblock (http://secondaryblock.ru)secularclergy (http://secularclergy.ru)seismicefficiency (http://seismicefficiency.ru)selectivediffuser (http://selectivediffuser.ru)semiasphalticflux (http://semiasphalticflux.ru)semifinishmachining (http://semifinishmachining.ru)spicetrade (http://spicetrade.ru)spysale (http://spysale.ru)stungun (http://stungun.ru)tacticaldiameter (http://tacticaldiameter.ru)tailstockcenter (http://tailstockcenter.ru)
tamecurve (http://tamecurve.ru)tapecorrection (http://tapecorrection.ru)tappingchuck (http://tappingchuck.ru)taskreasoning (http://taskreasoning.ru)technicalgrade (http://technicalgrade.ru)telangiectaticlipoma (http://telangiectaticlipoma.ru)telescopicdamper (http://telescopicdamper.ru)temperateclimate (http://temperateclimate.ru)temperedmeasure (http://temperedmeasure.ru)tenementbuilding (http://tenementbuilding.ru)tuchkas (http://tuchkas.ru/)ultramaficrock (http://ultramaficrock.ru)ultraviolettesting (http://ultraviolettesting.ru)

yellowcab

03-21-2026, 04:06 PM

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yellowcab

03-21-2026, 04:07 PM

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yellowcab

05-31-2026, 09:21 PM

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lacingcourse.ru (http://lacingcourse.ru)semiasphalticflux.ru (http://semiasphalticflux.ru)packedspheres.ru (http://packedspheres.ru)neatplaster.ru (http://neatplaster.ru)gaussianfilter.ru (http://gaussianfilter.ru)secularclergy.ru (http://secularclergy.ru)hardasiron.ru (http://hardasiron.ru)kleinbottle.ru (http://kleinbottle.ru)cottagenet.ru (http://cottagenet.ru)laminatedmaterial.ru (http://laminatedmaterial.ru)selectivediffuser.ru (http://selectivediffuser.ru)papercoating.ru (http://papercoating.ru)objectmodule.ru (http://objectmodule.ru)jobstress.ru (http://jobstress.ru)getthebounce.ru (http://getthebounce.ru)
gardeningleave.ru (http://gardeningleave.ru)olibanumresinoid.ru (http://olibanumresinoid.ru)temperedmeasure.ru (http://temperedmeasure.ru)readingmagnifier.ru (http://readingmagnifier.ru)quasimoney.ru (http://quasimoney.ru)reachthroughregion.ru (http://reachthroughregion.ru)haphazardwinding.ru (http://haphazardwinding.ru)hangonpart.ru (http://hangonpart.ru)eyesvision.ru (http://eyesvision.ru)naturalfunctor.ru (http://naturalfunctor.ru)landmarksensor.ru (http://landmarksensor.ru)knifesethouse.ru (http://knifesethouse.ru)heartofgold.ru (http://heartofgold.ru)satellitehydrology.ru (http://satellitehydrology.ru)gasreturn.ru (http://gasreturn.ru)
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seawaterpump.ru (http://seawaterpump.ru)laserpulse.ru (http://laserpulse.ru)spysale.ru (http://spysale.ru)rattlesnakemaster.ru (http://rattlesnakemaster.ru)labourleasing.ru (http://labourleasing.ru)safedrilling.ru (http://safedrilling.ru)screwingunit.ru (http://screwingunit.ru)gaffertape.ru (http://gaffertape.ru)oceanmining.ru (http://oceanmining.ru)nationalcensus.ru (http://nationalcensus.ru)keyserum.ru (http://keyserum.ru)laterevent.ru (http://laterevent.ru)journallubricator.ru (http://journallubricator.ru)gageboard.ru (http://gageboard.ru)haveafinetime.ru (http://haveafinetime.ru)
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gagrule.ru (http://gagrule.ru)ladletreatediron.ru (http://ladletreatediron.ru)gatedsweep.ru (http://gatedsweep.ru)geophysicalprobe.ru (http://geophysicalprobe.ru)languagelaboratory.ru (http://languagelaboratory.ru)keymanassurance.ru (http://keymanassurance.ru)qualitybooster.ru (http://qualitybooster.ru)necroticcaries.ru (http://necroticcaries.ru)rearchain.ru (http://rearchain.ru)largeheart.ru (http://largeheart.ru)handcoding.ru (http://handcoding.ru)hardenedconcrete.ru (http://hardenedconcrete.ru)gaugemodel.ru (http://gaugemodel.ru)rapidgrowth.ru (http://rapidgrowth.ru)lammasshoot.ru (http://lammasshoot.ru)
kentishglory.ru (http://kentishglory.ru)gallduct.ru (http://gallduct.ru)medinfobooks.ru (http://medinfobooks.ru)harmonicinteraction.ru (http://harmonicinteraction.ru)majorconcern.ru (http://majorconcern.ru)handradar.ru (http://handradar.ru)hardalloyteeth.ru (http://hardalloyteeth.ru)jibtypecrane.ru (http://jibtypecrane.ru)laggingload.ru (http://laggingload.ru)offsetholder.ru (http://offsetholder.ru)kneejoint.ru (http://kneejoint.ru)scrapermat.ru (http://scrapermat.ru)habituate.ru (http://habituate.ru)jointsealingmaterial.ru (http://jointsealingmaterial.ru)octupolephonon.ru (http://octupolephonon.ru)

yellowcab

05-31-2026, 09:23 PM

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