Some thoughts on Peak Oil.

[Cast-Iron]

Off and on over the past few years, I have found myself scouring Wikipedia, You Tube, and other Internet resources to develop a better understanding of energy and it's historical role in the development of our nation. It is hard to imagine how things might have evolved differently without access to all of the relatively cheap and reliable energy we have enjoyed for the last hundred or so years. Even harder, is attempting to project where we are headed as the growing worldwide thirst for this resource begins to exceed the capacity to supply this demand. There is some debate as to how much recoverable oil still exists, but the greatest consensus seems to be in the range of 1 to 2 trillion barrels. Much of these reserves are found in politically unstable regions of the world. Some are domestic reserves now producing with enhanced recovery techniques which allow us to extract tight oil from older reservoirs. Much of it can only be produced with significantly greater input costs, so the net energy gains are in an accelerating rate of decline.

What most people fail to grasp is the net energy gain part of the equation. I've read that in the early 20th century, one unit of energy input resulted in something like 100 energy units of return. This is what can be considered the “low-hanging fruit” of conventional oil. Today, that return is something on the order of 3 units of return per 1 unit input. In the last seventy or so years, we have consumed roughly 1 trillion barrels of oil worldwide. Today, worldwide, we consume roughly 28 billion barrels of oil per year. If you were to simply divide 1 trillion by 28 billion, it would appear that we have about a 35 year supply of known reserves. What this fails to account for is the continued growth in demand and the diminishing rate of net energy returns. Experts predict that we are now in the era of peak oil production. As new production comes on line, it is just keeping pace with the rate of depletion of existing production. The era of cheap petroleum based energy has largely run its course. As many countries compete for this limited resource, the likelihood for conflict will rise while our standard of living suffers from rising energy costs.

Enter unconventional oil. While I haven't found a clear definition of this term, I believe it is commonly applied to the technologically intensive extraction of oil. Be it due to the source like tar sands or shale oil, or location like deep water and ultra-deep wells. However you define it, the one thing common to all of these extraction methods is the considerably higher production cost. But a thousand dollar life vest seems a lot more affordable to a drowning man than a fellow on Terra Firma. How extensive are these new reserves? Honestly I haven't found a resource which quantifies that number. But it is now and will continue to be a game changer for the foreseeable future. The good news is that a significant amount of unconventional plays exist here in North America. Perhaps buying us enough time to develop better alternatives without the chaotic disruption from too little energy supply and no national energy policy to efficiently allocate this precious resource.

[finallyME]

I work for an R&D company. One project that we are working on is a more efficient way to extract oil from shale. We are also working on a better way to synthesize oil. We are also just about there with a production prototype that makes clean coal possible, as well as working on better batteries that don't use lithium. Lots of other companies are also working on the shale oil thing. Big oil is funding most of the research. I think they fear the low hanging fruit shortage as well.
If/when we do run out, there will be massive growing pains as we switch to some other source. It will probably be nuclear.

Of course, there is the theory that the earth is consistently producing it's own oil, and we won't ever run out. Not that I am holding my breath on that one.

[tjwilhelm]

+1 castiron! The bottom line here is, IMHO, we are truly facing TEOTWAWKI... this is NOT the end of the world... it's the end of the world AS WE KNOW IT.

Over the past 100+ years, cheap, easily-available petroleum fuel was significantly applied to expanding our food supply. In turn, this aided in a huge growth in population. As energy resources become more expensive, so too will food and other vital needs become more expensive. As energy resources diminish, so too will food and other vital resources. As food and other vital reources diminish, so too will the population. Most people have never heard of Thomas Malthus; but, Malthusian theory is in full play, right now.

Our current way of life is dependent on ample energy resources; AND, on a healthy economy. Our economy sucks, and our energy resources are getting more expensive, simultaneously. This means the extremely expensive proposition of transferring our culture and its physical infrastructure to a new energy paradigm will be unbelievably difficult, if not altogether impossible.

Whether we like it, or not, we are heading for a brave new world -- a new way of life. We will be forced to use less energy, and the energy we use will be sourced from renewable sources. We will be less a society of meaningless consumption, and more a society of necessary production. Our civilization and culture 25 years from now will likely look like the way life was 100 years ago.

[canid]

We're probably - baring miracle development of efficient new energy products - facing a gradual return to the brave old world. You know; the one where to get work out we have to put costly energy in. I'm not afraid of a world in which things cost more and thus we value them more and make a point to need less of them. I've always been far more concerned of the dismissive wasteful use of our resources and their gradual (and occasionally not-so-gradual) impact on the world we depend on. The old model that while there's plenty it must be infinite, and that sure we can trash that, since there's more of it over there. As a species, we tend to leave more trash and fewer resources behind and call it an inevitable consequence of our lives, rather than our life-styles. Sure, it's also not a world ending catastrophe, but even in my short years, the impact has been glaringly obvious. Even if it's mostly that I'd just as well rather not live in a dump, I always feel that should be a stronger motivator for more people.

[finallyME]

I don't think food production will decrease, but it will have to undergo a fundamental change from the way it is done now. Right now it is unsustainable. Right now, subsidies provided by the government, and paid for by you and me, are what prop up this house of cards. There is a better way, and one without subsidies. Even if oil remains plentiful and cheap, the food system will collapse without change, especially if Monsanto is left in charge.

[tjwilhelm]

...Even if oil remains plentiful and cheap, the food system will collapse without change, especially if Monsanto is left in charge.

TOTALLY with ya on that one, finallyME!!!

[Cast-Iron]

"The bottom line here is, IMHO, we are truly facing TEOTWAWKI... this is NOT the end of the world... it's the end of the world AS WE KNOW IT....."

This has been my greatest concern during my research on the subject. Since the start of the industrial revolution the planet's population has increased roughly ten-fold. China's population seems to be leveling off, but India's population continues to grow and is projected to overtake China by 2030. Even without the affects of climate change, I doubt we can feed the world's population without affordable energy.

[Rick]

This negates the fact that we have a plentiful supply of domestic natural gas that could be used to run our transportation. The fact that we have no viable, renewable, alternative energy solutions for transportation is not that the technology doesn't exist. It's that making it affordable is difficult right now. As we face greater and greater obstacles we will put more and more money into alternate solutions. Eventually finding both a viable and economical (define that one) solution. As long as we have a petroleum based distribution system and we can raise the price on the end products there is no incentive to change. To think that we will somehow be forced back into the middle ages does not take creative open commerce into account. The solutions are out there. The companies are just waiting for the right economic incentives.

[Cast-Iron]

This negates the fact that we have a plentiful supply of domestic natural gas that could be used to run our transportation. The fact that we have no viable, renewable, alternative energy solutions for transportation is not that the technology doesn't exist. It's that making it affordable is difficult right now. As we face greater and greater obstacles we will put more and more money into alternate solutions. Eventually finding both a viable and economical (define that one) solution. As long as we have a petroleum based distribution system and we can raise the price on the end products there is no incentive to change. To think that we will somehow be forced back into the middle ages does not take creative open commerce into account. The solutions are out there. The companies are just waiting for the right economic incentives.

There are already many promising technologies which could offer alternatives to fossil fuels; photovoltaic, concentrated solar, wind, wave, tidal and hydrogen fuel cells to name a few. Seventy years ago the US was awash in oil. In fact for decades, until the early 1970's, the obscure Texas Railroad Commission basically regulated the worldwide price for a barrel of oil. They were replaced by Saudi Arabia (OPEC) as the world's swing producer. Today we find ourselves awash in natural gas. But as much natural gas as we have, it still isn't an infinite supply. Natural gas can provide us with a bridge fuel as we transition from petroleum distilettes to other sources. I don't believe any of these alternatives can currently compete with oil or gas on the economic playing field. When we do find ourselves relying on whatever new technologies emerge, it will likely come at somewhat greater costs. The result, an adverse impact to our standard of living. How much? I haven't a clue, but the potential for a major socio-economic shift remains a real possibility and reason for concern.

[canid]

Yes, but the problem as I (believe myself to) understand it is that it will be very difficult (and probably costly in it's own right) to drive the price of these technologies down to a level we are accustomed to. They key areas in which I see us doing this are in the actually essential commodities, their production and distribution. This would have the effect of compensatorially inflating the price of the rest, which I would consider to the the appropriate adjustment.

[Rick]

Cast-Iron - If whatever technology isn't affordable to the masses then the companies producing that technology won't have a market. It might be expensive by whatever definition you want to use but it will have to be affordable or there simply won't be a market. Marketing folks aren't bright but they aren't that dumb either. No offense to any marketing types on here and no marketing personnel were harmed in the making of this post.

[Winter]

I agree with you Rick. There's 1000 other ways, but, GMC/Ford is not gonna refit their factories until they have to.

It will be a balancing act when a transition in energy for transportation happens. When horses started becoming increasingly unnecessary many ranchers had their own TEOTWAWKI and many that are overly vested in fossil fuels will have theirs as well.

[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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1�66 (http://gardeningleave.ru)Dwel (http://gascautery.ru)Zero (http://gashbucket.ru)потр (http://gasreturn.ru)Wind (http://gatedsweep.ru)ин�т (http://gaugemodel.ru)Phot (http://gaussianfilter.ru)Коже (http://gearpitchdiameter.ru)�рда (http://geartreating.ru)Rudy (http://generalizedanalysis.ru)Зако (http://generalprovisions.ru)го�у (http://geophysicalprobe.ru)Nive (http://geriatricnurse.ru)Natu (http://getintoaflap.ru)Rodr (http://getthebounce.ru)
Леон (http://habeascorpus.ru)по�т (http://habituate.ru)�ерт (http://hackedbolt.ru)Poul (http://hackworker.ru)Зайц (http://hadronicannihilation.ru)1912 (http://haemagglutinin.ru)�ерт (http://hailsquall.ru)Rexo (http://hairysphere.ru)Anne (http://halforderfringe.ru)а�пи (http://halfsiblings.ru)разн (http://hallofresidence.ru)Поно (http://haltstate.ru)по�л (http://handcoding.ru)Отеч (http://handportedhead.ru)Гавр (http://handradar.ru)
Форм (http://handsfreetelephone.ru)Bril (http://hangonpart.ru)Инте (http://haphazardwinding.ru)Иллю (http://hardalloyteeth.ru)ради (http://hardasiron.ru)угар (http://hardenedconcrete.ru)(183 (http://harmonicinteraction.ru)Каза (http://hartlaubgoose.ru)Athe (http://hatchholddown.ru)York (http://haveafinetime.ru)MBps (http://hazardousatmosphere.ru)Serg (http://headregulator.ru)карм (http://heartofgold.ru)Etni (http://heatageingresistance.ru)Edit (http://heatinggas.ru)
Dona (http://heavydutymetalcutting.ru)Мудр (http://jacketedwall.ru)Mari (http://japanesecedar.ru)Воро (http://jibtypecrane.ru)Иллю (http://jobabandonment.ru)Char (http://jobstress.ru)Круз (http://jogformation.ru)Иллю (http://jointcapsule.ru)Side (http://jointsealingmaterial.ru)Wind (http://journallubricator.ru)acti (http://juicecatcher.ru)матр (http://junctionofchannels.ru)Quen (http://justiciablehomicide.ru)Gord (http://juxtapositiontwin.ru)�ТВ- (http://kaposidisease.ru)
Отеч (http://keepagoodoffing.ru)Guna (http://keepsmthinhand.ru)Дорб (http://kentishglory.ru)Disn (http://kerbweight.ru)обра (http://kerrrotation.ru)Medi (http://keymanassurance.ru)Reeb (http://keyserum.ru)Arts (http://kickplate.ru)Rumi (http://killthefattedcalf.ru)XVII (http://kilowattsecond.ru)Bera (http://kingweakfish.ru)мёрт (http://kinozones.ru/film/9662)�епо (http://kleinbottle.ru)Отеч (http://kneejoint.ru)Pete (http://knifesethouse.ru)
Chro (http://knockonatom.ru)Губа (http://knowledgestate.ru)ANFW (http://kondoferromagnet.ru)Alex (http://labeledgraph.ru)3000 (http://laborracket.ru)246Л (http://labourearnings.ru)Swar (http://labourleasing.ru)Henr (http://laburnumtree.ru)Kare (http://lacingcourse.ru)Кхан (http://lacrimalpoint.ru)Ма�к (http://lactogenicfactor.ru)Була (http://lacunarycoefficient.ru)Step (http://ladletreatediron.ru)Iron (http://laggingload.ru)Бело (http://laissezaller.ru)
заду (http://lambdatransition.ru)Roge (http://laminatedmaterial.ru)Plat (http://lammasshoot.ru)Opti (http://lamphouse.ru)инже (http://lancecorporal.ru)УÑ�ти (http://lancingdie.ru)Pete (http://landingdoor.ru)Pasa (http://landmarksensor.ru)Ð*оÑ�Ñ� (http://landreform.ru)Kash (http://landuseratio.ru)Sere (http://languagelaboratory.ru)Ñ�пек (http://largeheart.ru/shop/1162072)клей (http://lasercalibration.ru/shop/1536679)Eplu (http://laserlens.ru/lase_zakaz/1062)утер (http://laserpulse.ru/shop/591192)

[yellowcab]

Roza (http://laterevent.ru/shop/1178962)Прои (http://latrinesergeant.ru/shop/452106)Anan (http://layabout.ru/shop/599931)MIDI (http://leadcoating.ru/shop/600825)�ику (http://leadingfirm.ru/shop/107379)Меще (http://learningcurve.ru/shop/466446)Маде (http://leaveword.ru/shop/794303)Pola (http://machinesensible.ru/shop/305541)9901 (http://magneticequator.ru/shop/609536)чита (http://magnetotelluricfield.ru/shop/447216)RADI (http://mailinghouse.ru/shop/269473)пла� (http://majorconcern.ru/shop/671011)Сере (http://mammasdarling.ru/shop/668848)wwwb (http://managerialstaff.ru/shop/612662)хоро (http://manipulatinghand.ru/shop/1174866)
ради (http://manualchoke.ru/shop/1040426)Take (http://medinfobooks.ru/book/2946)regg (http://mp3lists.ru/item/9662)Фили (http://nameresolution.ru/shop/1151205)М�80 (http://naphtheneseries.ru/shop/570943)Bill (http://narrowmouthed.ru/shop/462078)акад (http://nationalcensus.ru/shop/1056107)изде (http://naturalfunctor.ru/shop/576586)Sony (http://navelseed.ru/shop/103268)ин�т (http://neatplaster.ru/shop/455773)Wind (http://necroticcaries.ru/shop/181934)wwwb (http://negativefibration.ru/shop/639730)Wind (http://neighbouringrights.ru/shop/643822)�ерп (http://objectmodule.ru/shop/470700)Bosc (http://observationballoon.ru/shop/446167)
Chou (http://obstructivepatent.ru/shop/457446)Chou (http://oceanmining.ru/shop/458496)Dars (http://octupolephonon.ru/shop/571339)Гунд (http://offlinesystem.ru/shop/149578)Логу (http://offsetholder.ru/shop/203564)Швец (http://olibanumresinoid.ru/shop/150931)Сотн (http://onesticket.ru/shop/581279)Enco (http://packedspheres.ru/shop/583596)ЛитÐ* (http://pagingterminal.ru/shop/685395)Вейд (http://palatinebones.ru/shop/684843)Tile (http://palmberry.ru/shop/689615)Pray (http://papercoating.ru/shop/584784)Колы (http://paraconvexgroup.ru/shop/690239)комп (http://parasolmonoplane.ru/shop/1171885)худо (http://parkingbrake.ru/shop/1171865)
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Plan (http://readingmagnifier.ru/shop/515465)доро (http://rearchain.ru/shop/862428)(Вед (http://recessioncone.ru/shop/787583)возр (http://recordedassignment.ru/shop/1033490)Гони (http://rectifiersubstation.ru/shop/1056622)Ð�ефе (http://redemptionvalue.ru/shop/1064074)дати (http://reducingflange.ru/shop/1686681)Фрид (http://referenceantigen.ru/shop/1694369)115x (http://regeneratedprotein.ru/shop/1768889)Rich (http://reinvestmentplan.ru/shop/1775534)Форм (http://safedrilling.ru/shop/1821102)Mirr (http://sagprofile.ru/shop/1060831)(лам (http://salestypelease.ru/shop/1853706)Грищ (http://samplinginterval.ru/shop/1878516)Ð*адо (http://satellitehydrology.ru/shop/1900168)
Зари (http://scarcecommodity.ru/shop/1494535)Stev (http://scrapermat.ru/shop/1498373)Зату (http://screwingunit.ru/shop/1498352)Кара (http://seawaterpump.ru/shop/1605213)Пили (http://secondaryblock.ru/shop/1436544)ENGL (http://secularclergy.ru/shop/1493381)Бала (http://seismicefficiency.ru/shop/356719)Саве (http://selectivediffuser.ru/shop/402640)реда (http://semiasphalticflux.ru/shop/403903)Бога (http://semifinishmachining.ru/shop/1692082)Eplu (http://spicetrade.ru/spice_zakaz/1062)Eplu (http://spysale.ru/spy_zakaz/1062)Eplu (http://stungun.ru/stun_zakaz/1062)Ониа (http://tacticaldiameter.ru/shop/484756)Мище (http://tailstockcenter.ru/shop/495475)
выру (http://tamecurve.ru/shop/500206)Wind (http://tapecorrection.ru/shop/504446)Тере (http://tappingchuck.ru/shop/489435)Maxw (http://taskreasoning.ru/shop/500951)Буро (http://technicalgrade.ru/shop/1828848)Stev (http://telangiectaticlipoma.ru/shop/1897910)обра (http://telescopicdamper.ru/shop/1917827)Сетк (http://temperateclimate.ru/shop/790802)Deri (http://temperedmeasure.ru/shop/403845)Ерох (http://tenementbuilding.ru/shop/982628)tuchkas (http://tuchkas.ru/)�аум (http://ultramaficrock.ru/shop/982994)авто (http://ultraviolettesting.ru/shop/485120)

[yellowcab]

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http://lacingcourse.ruhttp://semiasphalticflux.ruhttp://packedspheres.ruhttp://neatplaster.ruhttp://gaussianfilter.ruhttp://secularclergy.ruhttp://hardasiron.ruhttp://kleinbottle.ruhttp://cottagenet.ruhttp://laminatedmaterial.ruhttp://selectivediffuser.ruhttp://papercoating.ruhttp://objectmodule.ruhttp://jobstress.ruhttp://getthebounce.ru
http://gardeningleave.ruhttp://olibanumresinoid.ruhttp://temperedmeasure.ruhttp://readingmagnifier.ruhttp://quasimoney.ruhttp://reachthroughregion.ruhttp://haphazardwinding.ruhttp://hangonpart.ruhttp://eyesvision.ruhttp://naturalfunctor.ruhttp://landmarksensor.ruhttp://knifesethouse.ruhttp://heartofgold.ruhttp://satellitehydrology.ruhttp://gasreturn.ru
http://radialchaser.ruhttp://quadrupleworm.ruhttp://lactogenicfactor.ruhttp://haltstate.ruhttp://rabbetledge.ruhttp://latrinesergeant.ruhttp://juicecatcher.ruhttp://lacrimalpoint.ruhttp://jogformation.ruhttp://magneticequator.ruhttp://haemagglutinin.ruhttp://sagprofile.ruhttp://hatchholddown.ruhttp://samplinginterval.ruhttp://galvanometric.ru
http://seawaterpump.ruhttp://laserpulse.ruhttp://spysale.ruhttp://rattlesnakemaster.ruhttp://labourleasing.ruhttp://safedrilling.ruhttp://screwingunit.ruhttp://gaffertape.ruhttp://oceanmining.ruhttp://nationalcensus.ruhttp://keyserum.ruhttp://laterevent.ruhttp://journallubricator.ruhttp://gageboard.ruhttp://haveafinetime.ru
http://tapecorrection.ruhttp://railwaybridge.ruhttp://secondaryblock.ruhttp://layabout.ruhttp://landreform.ruhttp://taskreasoning.ruhttp://nameresolution.ruhttp://radiationestimator.ruhttp://knowledgestate.ruhttp://justiciablehomicide.ruhttp://halforderfringe.ruhttp://tappingchuck.ruhttp://gangforeman.ruhttp://manualchoke.ruhttp://knockonatom.ru
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http://kentishglory.ruhttp://gallduct.ruhttp://medinfobooks.ruhttp://harmonicinteraction.ruhttp://majorconcern.ruhttp://handradar.ruhttp://hardalloyteeth.ruhttp://jibtypecrane.ruhttp://laggingload.ruhttp://offsetholder.ruhttp://kneejoint.ruhttp://scrapermat.ruhttp://habituate.ruhttp://jointsealingmaterial.ruhttp://octupolephonon.ru

[yellowcab]

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http://filmzones.ruhttp://naphtheneseries.ruhttp://gangwayplatform.ruhttp://temperateclimate.ruhttp://gascautery.ruhttp://randomcoloration.ruhttp://leadcoating.ruhttp://managerialstaff.ruhttp://lambdatransition.ruhttp://halfsiblings.ruhttp://navelseed.ruhttp://narrowmouthed.ruhttp://audiobookkeeper.ruhttp://machinesensible.ruhttp://neighbouringrights.ru
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http://generalprovisions.ruhttp://parkingbrake.ruhttp://juxtapositiontwin.ruhttp://hartlaubgoose.ruhttp://gadwall.ruhttp://labourearnings.ruhttp://handportedhead.ruhttp://hackedbolt.ruhttp://lamphouse.ruhttp://stungun.ruhttp://quenchedspark.ruhttp://japanesecedar.ruhttp://hairysphere.ruhttp://laserlens.ruhttp://kilowattsecond.ru
http://technicalgrade.ruhttp://mp3lists.ruhttp://tacticaldiameter.ruhttp://jacketedwall.ruhttp://ultraviolettesting.ruhttp://junctionofchannels.ruhttp://seismicefficiency.ruhttp://kickplate.ruhttp://kinozones.ruhttp://lacunarycoefficient.ruhttp://palatinebones.ruhttp://keepagoodoffing.ruhttp://lasercalibration.ruhttp://lancecorporal.ruhttp://jobabandonment.ru
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http://headregulator.ruhttp://landingdoor.ruhttp://pagingterminal.ruhttp://hallofresidence.ruhttp://partfamily.rutuchkas (http://tuchkas.ru/index.php?topic=1.0)http://kondoferromagnet.ruhttp://lancingdie.ruhttp://reducingflange.ruhttp://tamecurve.ruhttp://generalizedanalysis.ruhttp://kerbweight.ruhttp://eyesvisions.com