Resolving U.S. Debt - The Reason and Resolutions

[Rick]

For the past five years there has been post after post on this forum about the coming economic collapse. The root of this fear, in my opinion, is a distinct lack of understanding in both finance and economics and a short sightedness in those things that can be done to mitigate the problems. So I thought I would provide some words to provoke some out of the box thinking concerning the U.S. debt crisis. If you understand finance and come to a different conclusion that’s fine. This post is addressed to those that don’t have an understanding of finance but do have a fear of economic collapse. Who knows, there might even be something of value to those that do understand finance.

Over the past 70 years or so the U.S. and other countries have grown to become the solution for everyone. We’re nice guys and when we saw a need we tried to fix it starting with the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Act (OASDI) a.k.a. Social Security in 1935. There were certainly other government programs in prior years but this marks a beginning in a fundamental change in American thinking. Since then we have grown to provide a myriad of programs to help disadvantaged people. The problem is the government as a total solution for its constituents doesn’t work in a Republic. It doesn’t work under a monarchy, communism or dictatorship. In short, it just doesn’t work. Government cannot afford to become the be all end all and our debt is testament to that fact.

First, let’s understand that this is not a financial problem. Debt is relatively easy to resolve. Increase income, reduce expense, sprinkle in a little time and you are out of debt. The problem is much larger and more complicated than that. What we are really dealing with is a fundamental shift in American thinking. The problem is social, not economic. Beginning with the migrations from country to the city in the 1920’s-30’s and culminating, I think, in the baby boomer generation Americans have seen a division in the nuclear American family. As individuals and families migrated from the farm to the cities to fill industrial jobs the grandparents were left behind. During my parent’s generation it became vogue to live in single family homes with the help of VA benefits for the returning G.I.s. The nuclear family of grandparents, parents and children all living in the same household, all contributing to the success of the family and all supporting one another has disappeared. In its wake is a host of social programs from Social Security to Child Care that has been implemented to accommodate this fundament shift and the problems that have arisen because of it. We are beginning to see the collapse of this experiment in things like two couple incomes, boomerang kids, granny apartments, etc. We need to recognize that for the first time in human history the clan no longer lives together or supports one another. I think we will see a forced realignment of this social oddity born simply out of need. It just doesn’t work and we’ve been strapped with debt trying to make it work.

As for the debt, I’m not sure why everyone thinks we either have a healthy economy or the end of everything as if there are no other alternatives. There are plenty of ways to resolve the debt, some of which we will see come to fruition. What are some of them?

1. Increase income. For the government that’s called taxation. We enjoy one of the lower personal tax rates in the industrial world. The U.S. was rated 23rd out of the top 96 countries according to a KPMG survey in 2011. *1 Compare our 35% top rate to Canada’s 46.4%, the U.K.’s 50% rate or Sweden’s 56% rate! We will increase taxes, probably after the 2016 presidential election. It has to be done but it’s not popular so it will be delayed as long as possible.

2. Reduce expense. Expense at the government level is usually called services. We can no longer afford to care for everyone or fix every problem by throwing money at it. Things like the Federal Farm Loan Act of 1916 barely resemble the problems they were designed to resolve a century ago. Dairy subsidies totaled $4.9 billion between 1995 and 2011 and went almost exclusively to corporations. *2 That’s but one example. Services must be cut and will be. Again, probably after the 2016 elections. Cutting services hurts people whether they are recipients or employed because of the service but it’s unavoidable. We just have to be judicious in how we go about it and focus on the impact to the economy rather than on the individual. Yes, that’s a difficult position and not popular but it’s a reality.

3. Debt Restructuring. Governments, like individuals can restructure their debt. The U.S. debt is not a single debt but thousands of individual debts that range from the U.S. Savings Bond program to U.S. Treasuries traded on the secondary market. All of them can be restructured to extend terms to buy additional time. There is obviously a cost, generally higher interest, but it is still an option and problem a good one of some of the debt vehicles.

4. Tax Code Revisions. Simplifying the current tax code and utilizing a fixed rate with no deductions would dramatically increase governmental income and could decrease tax rates at the same time. Rich and poor alike share the same military protection, roads, bridges, schools etc. so why discriminate against those who are economically successful? Those who live below the poverty level could be given a different, lower tax rate to accommodate concerns that a flat tax is regressive. This also serves to increase individual privacy since the government would no longer need to know if you own or rent your home, what you purchased (vehicles for business, solar, etc.), what investment vehicles you have, how much you paid for mortgage, points, etc. All they need to know is your gross income.

Revising the rules to capture taxation from off shore companies and U.S. companies with off shore income is another large pot of money currently not available under our tax code. According to a Drucker report Google saved $3.1 billion in the past three years by shifting a large portion of its foreign income to banks in Ireland. Google, Oracle, Pfizer, Lilly, Facebook and Microsoft are just a few big names that shelter income overseas and take advantage of U.S. deductions and incentive programs. Most of those companies are based right here in the United States. To put it simply, if you make money here you pay taxes here. And don’t blame the corporations for doing what we allow them to do. If you wanted to you could do the very same thing.

5. U.S. Debt Reduction Bonds. Similar to U.S. Savings Bonds that allows the income derived from debt reduction bonds to be used to directly pay down the government debt with a 20 or 30 year return to investment. This would allow the government to pay off short term debt and maturing debts and provide an extended window to increase income and use earned interest on that income to pay maturing bonds.

6. Balanced Budget Amendment over the business cycle. Forces the government to deal financially in the same manner individuals must by making more than they spend. By doing so over the course of the business cycle rather than annually you can address deficit spending requirements in recessionary periods no differently than taking out a loan may be required to pay for a furnace replacement by an individual. Deficit spending is sometimes necessary but over the business cycle the budget has to be balanced.

I’ve rattled on long enough and only touched some subjects at a very high level. The purpose of this post is to demonstrate that a multitude of responsible things can and will be done to resolve the U.S. debt problem, to entice you to think out of the box a little and to perhaps investigate some of the things I’ve listed. These are by no means the only tools at our disposal but some that, in my opinion, are workable. The upside is we still have a window in our personal lives to pre adjust for increased taxes and decreased services that are surely coming in the next 4-5 years and not the economic collapse that so many are wringing their hands over.

*1 - http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/individual-income-tax-social-security-rate-survey-September-2011.pdf

*2 - http://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=dairy

[Wildthang]

All good points Rick, but the thoughts I have in response would be so political that I am just going to keep my mouth shut.

[Rick]

This is actually beyond politics. It doesn't matter who wins in 2016 or what party is in control. There are a series of steps that will have to be taken prior to 2020.

[hunter63]

Ought to be interesting, (interesting meaning a PITA).....it's one thing to know what to do, another to satisfy all the factions with out turmoil.

I have no doubt we will "get there" the question is 'how will it effect any one of us in the transition"....hence the preps to keep as normal of a life style as possible on your own.

[balendor]

You made some good points however we as a people would need true leadership at the highest levels, that are willing to make the needed changes for any of that to work. Our biggest problem is the self interest of our leadership while it would be good for Americans to implement these changes our politicians do not see it as a way to re-election and so do not pursue positive change. Until we elect leadership willing to put the country before their own self interest things will continue to go down hill, therefore it follows that in order to get our debt in check we must start at the ballad box.

[Rick]

Exactly right, Hunter. All of us have the "not in my back yard" approach to life. Windfarm? Sure, I'm all for it. In my field? No way! The same will be true of service cuts. That's the very reason this will be pushed out as long as possible. You are not a popular person when you tell your boss the baby and the bath water stink. No politician wants to tell their boss (us) that they are for cutting services or raising taxes.

[kyratshooter]

This is actually beyond politics. It doesn't matter who wins in 2016 or what party is in control. There are a series of steps that will have to be taken prior to 2020.

This entire election has become economically based.

The political aspect being

1. Will the action you state be taken

2. Who is most likely to take them.

What rule says they HAVE tio be taken by 2020? Anyone can spend themselves into ruin if they just put a little effort into it.

[Rick]

It's not self interest, it's constituent interest.

"This news flash just in. Illionois Senators Durbin and Kirk have both agreed to back the Corps of Engineers Funding Cut program that will reduce Corps of Engineer funding to pre 1970 levels."

Good for the country. Do you support it? Let me answer for you....He11 No! See?

[Rick]

Will the action you state be taken

Isn't that true at all levels of government, by every party and has been since the first election?


What rule says they HAVE tio be taken by 2020? Anyone can spend themselves into ruin if they just put a little effort into it.

Social Security is funded through 2020. Changes have to occur prior to then to salvage the program. Raise taxes? Cut Services? Both?

[Sourdough]

Well Rick, where as I live on $551.00 per month Social Security, and do not even have to file IRS returns. I propose we triple the Federal and States income tax. And pay down the debt.

[Rick]

This isn't a political thread and I don't want it running that way. The point of the thread is simply you don't have to think that economic collapse is a certainty. It isn't and there are ways to resolve debt. Whether politics alters some change or even when it occurs is an entirely different matter and separate from main theme.

Exactly, SD. Not in my back yard. You made my point. Don't blame others for not enacting what we don't want enacted. By the way, with a flat tax you can actually lower the tax rate. Just sayin'....

[Daniel Nighteyes]

First of all, Rick, thank you for the thought, preparation and time you obviously invested. Though you and I may disagree on some of the tactics (or HOWs), we are in complete agreement on the strategies (the WHATs).

While the solutions themselves are not political, the process of implementing those solutions IS political. As a nation we could easily be seen as two "people" fighting for control of the steering wheel in a vehicle that is heading straight for a cliff, and towing a trailer containing the economies of many other World powers. If we go over, we're taking a whole bunch of other economies with us!

Unfortunately, in my mind at least, at least one of these people (and quite possibly both) is focusing on the WRONG thing -- gaining control of the steering wheel -- instead of the CRITICAL thing -- keeping us away from the precipice.

Let me also take momentary advantage of this bully pulpit to attempt to separate "entitlement" from "earned benefit" for anyone on either side of this matter.

If one pays into a 401k or other retirement-investment program, the funds coming out at retirement are NOT an entitlement but an earned benefit (you paid for it, so you earned it). If one has paid the premiums on insurance policies that are intended to generate cash benefits (e.g. life insurance, long-term care insurance), the cash benefits are earned benefits -- not entitlements. If one has worked for five years to accrue 12 weeks of vacation leave, such leave is an earned benefit and not an entitlement. And that, btw, is why an employer is legally required to pay an employee for all earned vacation pay upon separation.

Since anyone's Social Security Retirement benefits are determined by (a) the number of years worked; and (b) the amount contributed to Social Security thru payroll deductions, employer contributions and self-employment taxes; they are also earned benefits. They are not "entitlements".

"Welfare", Supplemental Security Income, and a few others -- THEY are entitlements in that they were not earned but awarded based on ones' economic status, group membership and so forth.

But that's just me.

Thanks again Rick. Well done.

[Rick]

I don't disagree at all. Trying to summarize a vast problem in a few paragraphs is a bit daunting but at a very basic level that's what I see as the root cause. Contributing factors have sprung up to "aid and abet" The loss of the nuclear family and we give it many names. Keeping up with the Jones, Have to have it Now, Lack of Personal Accountability, etc. but it seems to have spawned out of the Depression and Dust Bowl when Americans migrated in vast numbers to areas where they thought they could find work. Then when the guys returned from WWII they had access to VA funding and Sears Houses. Who could resist? The nuclear family fell apart and new problems sprang up.

[kyratshooter]

Deleted,

I am about to get in trouble!

[natertot]

I think the gubment should follow Dave Ramseys plan. It works! :punk:

[Echo2]

Ought to be interesting, (interesting meaning a PITA).....it's one thing to know what to do, another to satisfy all the factions with out turmoil.

I have no doubt we will "get there" the question is 'how will it effect any one of us in the transition"....hence the preps to keep as normal of a life style as possible on your own.

Isn't that a curse....to live in interesting times.

[BENESSE]

Every generation way back when has lived in "interesting times". Don't know of anyone who sat around for any period of time saying...you know, I'm just bored cause I've no bone to pick with anyone. Everything's hunky dory...I just love our elected officials, such a fine job they're doing. Why, I can barely keep my eyes open at night because I can't seem to find anything to worry about.

[Geek]

First of all, Rick, thank you for the thought, preparation and time you obviously invested. Though you and I may disagree on some of the tactics (or HOWs), we are in complete agreement on the strategies (the WHATs).

While the solutions themselves are not political, the process of implementing those solutions IS political. As a nation we could easily be seen as two "people" fighting for control of the steering wheel in a vehicle that is heading straight for a cliff, and towing a trailer containing the economies of many other World powers. If we go over, we're taking a whole bunch of other economies with us!

Unfortunately, in my mind at least, at least one of these people (and quite possibly both) is focusing on the WRONG thing -- gaining control of the steering wheel -- instead of the CRITICAL thing -- keeping us away from the precipice.

Let me also take momentary advantage of this bully pulpit to attempt to separate "entitlement" from "earned benefit" for anyone on either side of this matter.

If one pays into a 401k or other retirement-investment program, the funds coming out at retirement are NOT an entitlement but an earned benefit (you paid for it, so you earned it). If one has paid the premiums on insurance policies that are intended to generate cash benefits (e.g. life insurance, long-term care insurance), the cash benefits are earned benefits -- not entitlements. If one has worked for five years to accrue 12 weeks of vacation leave, such leave is an earned benefit and not an entitlement. And that, btw, is why an employer is legally required to pay an employee for all earned vacation pay upon separation.

Since anyone's Social Security Retirement benefits are determined by (a) the number of years worked; and (b) the amount contributed to Social Security thru payroll deductions, employer contributions and self-employment taxes; they are also earned benefits. They are not "entitlements".

"Welfare", Supplemental Security Income, and a few others -- THEY are entitlements in that they were not earned but awarded based on ones' economic status, group membership and so forth.

But that's just me.

Thanks again Rick. Well done.

Unfortunately, Social Security and Medicare do not take in enough, or earn enough to pay the promised benefits. Because of that, they are not purely earned benefit, or entitlement, in the sense you are using the terms. Understanding this is key to having any rational discussion on these programs.

In addition, the liabilities of both programs are not counted in the $16 trillion you normally hear when the debt is discussed. On the other hand, the benefits, which are the program liabilities, can be altered at any time Congress has the will to act.

If you want to solve the federal deficit problem in full, you need 3 solutions for the $16 trillion that is normally referred to, and then a solution for Medicare, and a solution for Social Security. Obviously large numbers of people are dependent on Social Security and Medicare, which is why they are politically sensitive and reforming the programs is difficult. Serious proposals to reform Social Security and Medicare generally change the benefits for younger people, who are many years away from retirement, but the proposals are then used as political fodder, frighten seniors, and go nowhere. As a result, I believe these programs will get fixed when they hit a wall, and not before. At that point we will get a compromise of increased taxes and reduced benefits for younger workers that will extend the program a generation or two, much like the reform in the 1980s.

Coming back to the $16 trillion problem, the main thing that needs to be done is get the economy growing again. The problem then becomes much easier. Unfortunately, the methods for returning to growth depend on your diagnosis of what caused the problem in the first place. Otherwise, you are engaging in activity that is irrelevant, regardless of your political views.

I think it will be difficult to discuss this without getting into politics.

[Rick]

Again, we're missing the point. This is not an exercise in resolving ills but an attempt to educate those that do not understand finance but have been convinced through whatever vehicle that the economy is doomed. Roughly 25% of the students in my accounting classes did not know how to reconcile a check register. Of those that did, about half didn't bother to do it on at least a monthly basis. These were not just 18 year old kids but adult students that have spent some time in life. I see the same symptoms over and over on here when some folks post about a deal that isn't or make statements that have no basis in fact. A simple, rhetorical, question is, "Are you financially successful in life?" If the answer to that question is 'no' then there's a really good chance you don't understand finance. Yet folks are spending money to prep for a problem that they don't understand. Worse, it's a case of they don't know what they don't know. They simply don't recognize their lack of education in a field where they are spending money to fix a problem and forsaking more realistic threats.

Understand, I don't have a problem in their lack of education. I don't know how to fly a plane and don't work on today's combustion engines. I don't have the education for either. So I'm not trying to be condescending but simply point out a problem. We all have strengths and weaknesses. However, finance at even the basic level is fundamental to everyone's success in life so it's important for folks to learn the basics. I tell my kids you either control your money or it controls you and it's true. There is no gray area in that. Folks should take the time to educate themselves on finance. They should have a realistic monthly budget that they live by. They should know how to reconcile their check register and do it to the penny on at least a monthly basis. I happen to do my registers on a daily basis so I can catch any problem on the front end. Most of all, they should stop worrying about a problem they know little about, can do nothing about and has a slim likelihood of occurring. Another old cliche is apropo; Control what you can. Influence what you can and forget the rest.

[BENESSE]

Worse, it's a case of they don't know what they don't know.
Most of all, they should stop worrying about a problem they know little about, can do nothing about and has a slim likelihood of occurring. Another old cliche is apropo; Control what you can. Influence what you can and forget the rest.

IMO, that's precisely why they worry. Knowledge gives you certainty and control (ergo the cliche, knowledge is power) and lack of it inspires fear and irrational MO. That applies to so many other things in life that we have to deal with.
Like in my case; I can easily say, what do I care about gas prices, I don't own a car and don't need one to get anywhere I want to go. But then, gas prices affect things that I do depend on, and not appreciating the full extent of the connection would be to my own detriment.

[Rick]

That's an excellent point. Maybe that IS the source of their worry.

[Geek]

Again, we're missing the point. This is not an exercise in resolving ills but an attempt to educate those that do not understand finance but have been convinced through whatever vehicle that the economy is doomed. Roughly 25% of the students in my accounting classes did not know how to reconcile a check register. Of those that did, about half didn't bother to do it on at least a monthly basis. These were not just 18 year old kids but adult students that have spent some time in life. I see the same symptoms over and over on here when some folks post about a deal that isn't or make statements that have no basis in fact. A simple, rhetorical, question is, "Are you financially successful in life?" If the answer to that question is 'no' then there's a really good chance you don't understand finance. Yet folks are spending money to prep for a problem that they don't understand. Worse, it's a case of they don't know what they don't know. They simply don't recognize their lack of education in a field where they are spending money to fix a problem and forsaking more realistic threats.

Understand, I don't have a problem in their lack of education. I don't know how to fly a plane and don't work on today's combustion engines. I don't have the education for either. So I'm not trying to be condescending but simply point out a problem. We all have strengths and weaknesses. However, finance at even the basic level is fundamental to everyone's success in life so it's important for folks to learn the basics. I tell my kids you either control your money or it controls you and it's true. There is no gray area in that. Folks should take the time to educate themselves on finance. They should have a realistic monthly budget that they live by. They should know how to reconcile their check register and do it to the penny on at least a monthly basis. I happen to do my registers on a daily basis so I can catch any problem on the front end. Most of all, they should stop worrying about a problem they know little about, can do nothing about and has a slim likelihood of occurring. Another old cliche is apropo; Control what you can. Influence what you can and forget the rest.

Well, I have a Wharton MBA, and was a teaching fellow in Accounting and have a pilot's license, though I no longer have a medical, and I once rebuilt a Porsche engine. Not that any of those have anything to do with each other.

If you would like a diagnosis of what went wrong, I can provide it, but as I said this is hard to discuss without politics.

[tjwilhelm]

Thanks, Rick. Your strategy is full of excellent advice and thoughts for individuals and normal businesses. I can't help but wonder, however, if ALL of these concepts apply to our Federal Government, given the underlying nature of our economic system.

I'm no economist...I'm just an engineer; but, as best I understand, at the Federal/Governmental level, "debt" and "money" are the same thing. If you totally eliminated the Federal debt, you would simultaneously be removing all the Federal currency from the system. Our Federal Government does NOT "create" U.S. currency. Rather, the U.S. Government BORROWS all of our currency from a privately-owned institution cleverly named the "Federal Reserve." This independent, central bank creates money out of thin air and paper. Then, they loan it to the U.S. Government, at interest! On top of that, with the crazy Fractional-Reserve banking rules, the problems inherent in this system are further exacerbated.

At the Federal level, I think the solution is very simple -- tell the Federal Reserve Bank to go pound salt, and have Congress grow the gonads necessary for the USA to start printing it's own currency, interest free. This has been done, quite successfully, in our Country's history. On the downside, the Presidents who took this step, or attmepted to take this step, were either assassinated, or suffered assassination attempts. Conspiracy theory? Of course! But, just because something is a theory doesn't mean it's totally wrong. All good wilderness walkers know, when you smell smoke, it likely came from a fire.

For what it's worth, see:

The Secret of OZ -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI&feature=related

Money as Debt -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K5_JE_gOys

[Rick]

Geek - You still missed my point. I don't care what went wrong or what will fix it for this exercise. What I care about is folks not understanding finance and trying to make preps based on their fear of same.

TJ - Similar response. However, I'm not suggesting the Fed not have debt. There is nothing wrong with debt as long as it is affordable, manageable debt. And the Federal Reserve doesn't print money. That's done through the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, which is run by the U.S. Treasury, which has no control over the Federal Reserve. If you have problems with the Reserve then bring them up with Al Hamilton who wanted a national private bank. Folks seem to quote him quite often on here so I guess they think he did good. Or is at least quotable (shrug).

[Geek]

Your point seems to be that the economy is not likely to abruptly implode, which I agree with.

However, the average reader has had his house and his retirement account slashed in value by recent events, shaking his faith in his own ability to see the future and prepare for it intelligently. Unless people can not only see an improving economy, but regain a sense of predictability, you're not going to reduce that fear. I believe it will be tough to prescribe solutions, at either an individual or societal level, without first understanding what went wrong and why aren't we recovering as we have from past recessions.

[tjwilhelm]

Geek - You still missed my point. I don't care what went wrong or what will fix it for this exercise. What I care about is folks not understanding finance and trying to make preps based on their fear of same.

TJ - Similar response. However, I'm not suggesting the Fed not have debt. There is nothing wrong with debt as long as it is affordable, manageable debt. And the Federal Reserve doesn't print money. That's done through the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, which is run by the U.S. Treasury, which has no control over the Federal Reserve. If you have problems with the Reserve then bring them up with Al Hamilton who wanted a national private bank. Folks seem to quote him quite often on here so I guess they think he did good. Or is at least quotable (shrug).

Sorry if I missed the point, Rick. I thought I was addressing the premise of your OP:

"For the past five years there has been post after post on this forum about the coming economic collapse. The root of this fear, in my opinion, is a distinct lack of understanding in both finance and economics and a short sightedness in those things that can be done to mitigate the problems. So I thought I would provide some words to provoke some out of the box thinking concerning the U.S. debt crisis. If you understand finance and come to a different conclusion that’s fine. This post is addressed to those that don’t have an understanding of finance but do have a fear of economic collapse. Who knows, there might even be something of value to those that do understand finance."

I was trying to honor the point of your OP by responding with some "out of the box thinking concerning the U.S. debt crisis." Bringing up the nature of our current economic and financial system was meant to help lead to a better "understanding in both finance and economics."

Of course, you are correct that our "money" is printed by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing. I never said the Federal Reserve "printed" money. I carefully used the phrase "create money." I agree, the U.S. Treasury "has no control over the Federal Reserve." Perhaps this is the problem, because it appears, at least in part, that the Federal Reverse has way too much influence over the U.S. Treasury.

I know that Wikipedia is not the definitive source of anything; but, it is a reasonable starting point for finding good info. This is from Wikipedia:

"Federal Reserve Notes are legal tender, with the words this note is legal tender for all debts, public and private printed on each note. (See generally 31 U.S.C. § 5103.) They have replaced United States Notes, which were once issued by the Treasury Department. Federal Reserve Notes are backed by the assets of the Federal Reserve Banks, which serve as collateral under Federal Reserve Act Section 16. These assets are generally Treasury securities which have been purchased by the Federal Reserve through its Federal Open Market Committee in a process called debt monetizing. (See Monetization.) This monetized debt can increase the money supply, either with the issuance of new Federal Reserve Notes or with the creation of debt money (deposits). This increase in the monetary base leads to larger increase in the money supply through the fractional-reserve banking as deposits are lent and re-deposited where they form the basis of further loans."

Most people think the Federal Reserve is an official branch of the U.S. Government, or an office of the U.S.Treasury. Because of this misunderstanding, I thought a discussion of this aspect of "finance and economics" might be useful.

[Rick]

And it appears I missed your point. Mea Culpa.

[Geek]

I think it is also important to keep the debt crisis independent from the idea of economic collapse. The debt crisis is with us now. However, an economic collapse in the sense that people seem to fear, is beyond the Great Depression in impact. Personally, I consider this to be less likely than am EMP, but people do fear that it is going to happen. They fear it because events of the past few years have completely surprised them, and there is no evidence that policy makers have a clue what to do.

I expect the economy to muddle along. If we do have a collapse I think it is more likely to look like the Great Depression than the zombie apocolypse. However, I sympathize with those who see it differently and I think their prepping will prove useful if we have some other catastophe, e.g. an EMP.

I think your idea of a thread to put the idea of an economic collapse in perspective is good, but hopefully it would not cause anyone to stop preparing for other unforeseen events. There is a difference between prepping and panic.

[Wildthang]

Well I am normally a very optomistic person, but I think there eventually will be an economic collapse. I think we have gone beyond the tipping point of where the governments incompitancy has exceeded any chance of recovery. All great civilizations in the past has collapsed and we are no different. We are now in a situation where the governent does not work together to repair the damage, and people will not ban together because they are too selfish and independant to undestand how important it is to pull together.
I also think that if we ever have an extreme depression or collapse, that people will react much more violently than the did in the great depression. I tink people in that day still knew how to pull together, help each other, and respect each other. I cannot see things getting better, only worse! Heck we are killing the earth and overpopulating it, so I am not sure anybody including the president can repair the situation.
I am not trying to be negative, only realistic!

[Rick]

That's really the whole point of the thread, WT. Your opinion is as good as anyone else's but there is still quite a lot of time to react. Only the Social Security program bumps up against the 2020 deadline and that's only if nothing is done between now and then to correct it. Washington actually does a pretty good job of overcoming bipartisan BS if their feet is held to the fire. That occurred twice this year alone with the Continuing Resolution (which is weird in itself) and there are a lot of other examples from the war to Homeland Security. But I understand your thoughts and that's why I mention the 2016 election in my OP. That's when things will have to begin to get serious. It should be happening today but we're content to kick the can down the road while $4 billion in debt gets added each day. The 64K question is how long can the U.S. continue to fund the interest on the debt without borrowing to pay the interest? Remember that the Fed is borrowing money at historically low interest rates, which is good from a borrowing perspective. They are also paying historically low yields, which is also good if you are the one paying out. Consider this for a moment, the government does not have to pay back debt as long as it can grow debt more slowly than the tax base. There are plenty of precedents for this. WWII debt was never repaid because the government outgrew the debt. Think about that little fact. Have debt? Just make certain taxes grow faster. Get it? Sooooo.....in theory, the debt never has to be paid back as long as we raise taxes to continue paying the interest. So how long can that go on? Indefinitely. Never a collapse, ever because the government always holds that card up their sleeve.

If you want to grow the economy without raising taxes then you target the public debt. Business regains confidence and begins increasing inventories (buying), expands operations (buying and building) and increases production (jobs). Consumers also regain confidence and they start spending based on wants, not just needs. But the realistic view is there doesn't have to be much done to keep kicking the can but you better expect to pay higher taxes (see my op).

[Daniel Nighteyes]

Unfortunately, Social Security and Medicare do not take in enough, or earn enough to pay the promised benefits. Because of that, they are not purely earned benefit, or entitlement, in the sense you are using the terms. Understanding this is key to having any rational discussion on these programs.

I understand your viewpoint, and agree that its a very ticklish, entirely political, and extremely critical matter. I disagree that "they are not purely earned benefits." Everyone agrees that the benefits paid out from IRAs, 401k's and other retirement instruments are earned benefits, all the while knowing that the benefits paid out by these instruments far exceed the amounts paid in.

With that said, when setting up an IRA, a 401k, or what-have-you, one enters into binding agreements with banks, mutual funds, etc. These are classic quid pro quo ("this for that") agreements. These quid pro quos form the foundation of, and are fully enforced by, American contract law. If a bank, mutual fund, etc. were to say "Oops, we made a mistake and cannot fulfill the terms of our agreement," (in diplomatic terms) THE SHIP WOULD HIT THE SAND big-time. I suspect that our Congressional leaders would be among the frontrunners in the torch-and-pitchfork brigade. Under American contract law, no unilateral "Do-Overs" or "Mulligans" are possible.

Now, let's look at Social Security/Medicare. With very few exceptions, such as employees of some government organizations (this comes up again later), one cannot legally opt out of contributing to Social Security. AFAIK, no one can opt out of contributing to Medicare. The specific amounts of said contributions are also set by regulations.

Together, these form a mandatory quid-pro-quo. It is mandatory because we, as citizens, had no voice or choice in the matter. Now, as to the matter of under-funding, the simple fact remains that, had our elected officials (on both sides of the aisle, btw) taken a few minor, clearly-defined steps in the late 1990's/early 2000's, Social Security and Medicare would have been more than adequately funded into the Twenty-Second Century. They didn't, of course, but that's not the fault of we "investors."

Just like banks, mutual funds, etc. our government can't just throw up its hands and ask for a mulligan or do-over. By the terms of the laws they wrote, enacted and enforced, they committed to providing this earned benefit. Therefore, they must provide it.

There are also other Constitutional provisions (Article I Section 9) that prohibit "Bill-of-Attainder" and "Ex-Post-Facto" legislation. The first states that no law may be passed that singles out an individual or group for punishment without a trial. The second states that no law or other governmental regulation may be retroactively applied. These are other ways of saying "do-overs and mulligans are not allowed."

By the way, this exact scenario has been played out many times before in these United States, at the State/County level (I told you it would come up again). Each and every time, the courts have ruled that the benefits were earned and therefore must be paid. Period. Paragraph. End of story.

Many of our more vocal Federal government representatives, IMO, are attempting to hide, disguise or cover-up these little facts by erroneously characterizing Social Security Retirement and Medicare as "entitlements" when they clearly are not.

Now, does this need to be addressed QUICKLY? Absolutely. Can/should it be addressed retroactively? Not just no, but HECK NO! This isn't a NIMBY argument, but a matter of American contract law.

As syndicated radio humorist Red Neckerson often said, "That's my opinion; oughta be yours."

Regards as always,


-- Nighteyes

[Geek]

The 1983 Social Security reform affected the age at which I could retire with full benefits, despite the fact that I was already working and paying into the system. I expect a similar measure whenever the Congress decides it can't put it off any longer.

[Cast-Iron]

A lot of good posts here, but I didn't see any comments about how the Fed has been artificially manipulating interest rates. As long as we can expand our debt by "printing" money to fund our government, the interest rate can be manipulated to keep the cost of debt servicing "affordable". As a world reserve currency we are able to and do get away with this practice. The catalyst for collapse as I see it is if our currency loses it's reserve status. The cost of borrowing can no longer be domestically manipulated by economic voodoo and the risk of devastating currency devaluation and double-digit inflation become a reality. This is the economlic cliff that I fear we are heading for.
We have lost much of our national manufacturing base and jobs continue to move overseas. We have allowed nations steal our proprietary technology without recourse. You can only generate so many tax dollars from any economy, and our economy continues to shrink because it isn't even keeping pace with real inflation?
Are we headed for an economic cliff? I think it is almost unavoidable. Will it be the end of us all? I don't see that happening, but it will likely mean a major decline in our standard of living with most of the burden being placed on what's left of the middle and lower ecomonic classes. How it plays out is anyone's guess, but that is one reason I continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[jfeatherjohn]

Goverments at a levels will have to reduce spending, which will slow the economy. Taxes will have to rise, which will slow the economy. Individuals will hage less to spend, which will slow the economy.

The velocity of money will slow down significantly. The banking "crisis"
has already forced individuals and other entities to deleverage, which has slowed that velocity greatly, and we are feeling the pain.

The pain is only going to get worse, but if we don't take the pain, we can lose
reserve currency status, and that would start a whole new crisis.

For now, perhaps we shoupd focus our attention on that fiscal cliff, because that is too much too quickly, and it will be felt immediately.

I'm not prepped for an economic stall, but I'm sure glad that I am prepped.

John

[Daniel Nighteyes]

The 1983 Social Security reform affected the age at which I could retire with full benefits, despite the fact that I was already working and paying into the system. I expect a similar measure whenever the Congress decides it can't put it off any longer.

It affected my full retirement age as well, by one year. I was 37 at the time, and had been paying into Social Security for 21 years. The change didn't have a negative impact on me because I had another 29 years to take additional actions, which I did.

As long as the Federal Government limits the impact to as-yet-unearned benefits 25-30 years into the future (as did the '83 reform for me), they could do it again. They just cannot reduce or eliminate benefits that have already been earned. This is backed by significant legal precedent.

Now, to get back to Rick's original point, we can still avoid "falling off the cliff." However, just like trying to stop a snowball rolling down a steep snow-covered hill, the sooner we intercede the easier the task will be. Perhaps I should have written "the less difficult the task will be" because it won't be easy even now.

With each passing day/week/month, the task gets larger, and larger, and larger. Like said snowball, it grows exponentially. By the time it nears the bottom of the hill, the effort and cost required to stop that snowball will be horrendous.

[Geek]

Social Security can be fixed without affecting current retirees, just as it was in 1983. Medicare can be fixed in similar fashion, starting with linking the age of eligibility to the age of full retirement. That solves 2 out of our 3 fiscal deficits. The primary deficit, which is currently at $16 trillion, can be solved most easily with some economic growth, which will require some choices, but they aren't as "tough" as out politicains would have you believe. Is cutting off Public Television all that big a problem? I don't think so. Add up a few dozen of those and then we can start to go after larger items like TSA, etc. Before you know it you've eliminated a significant chunk of federal spending.

The issue is that we as a people have to vote for that type of responsibility. We'll see in a few weeks.

[Rick]

Re: Social Security and medicare. The social security program was not only fully funded it carried an excess. An excess that Congress duly appropriated into other earmarks.

Castiron: Artificially manipulating interest rates is how it's supposed to work. Always has and always will. That's what the Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve do as part of fiscal policy. And there is no guessing on the outcome. Reread my first post. There are only two answers to the question. Increase income, decrease expense. Simple but not painless.

jfeatherjohn: I don't necessarily agree with your opening remarks. While that is certainly a possibility it can also be avoided. Reducing spending does not necessarily result in slowing the economy. It depends on HOW you reduce spending and to what extent. Taxes don't have to raise. A rewrite of the tax code would result in a lower tax rate at both the individual and corporate levels and INCREASE income to the government. Re-read my first post on how.

My whole point, as Daniel pointed out, is there are still many viable options to control the problem. Being in debt does not mean you have to file bankruptcy either on a personal level or government level. Too many believe it's either clear sailing or a return to the 1800s. That's just pish posh.

[rebel]

Economics in this day is political. So, this thread is going to be political. JMO.

[jfeatherjohn]

We have many, many options. We actually only need two or three.
But they are not being done. How old was I when I first heard of a flat tax? A boy...
What is going to cripple us is no action. We not going down the porcelain slide, but we are going to need some life jackets.
Crash? Doubt it. Descent? You bet.
I would like to see real change in the tax code, but I have been.wanting to see that for years. So I'm a little skeptical.

[Daniel Nighteyes]

Economics in this day is political. So, this thread is going to be political. JMO.

I think perhaps we're using the wrong term. Our nation's economy has always been "political." It is also "political" because we must depend on our politicians to fix it.

What I think we're all trying to do -- and quite well so far -- is to keep this discussion from becoming PARTISAN. As long as we stick to information, facts and data (the WHATs and the general, high-level HOWs) while staying completely away from the WHOs, I think we'll continue to do fine.

Rick said:

There are only two answers to the question. Increase income, decrease expense. Simple but not painless.

I'm pretty sure we need to do some of both. :) :) In order to accomplish this, we ALL need to abandon the idea of the "quick-and-painless-fix." These are endemic in the American culture. We don't seem to be able to see past the next performance review, or board meeting, or election. We do what makes US look good -- RIGHT NOW -- without ever considering the long-term consequences.

Without exception so far, such "quick-and-painless-fixes" have only postponed the inevitable, often by creating an even bigger problem down the road. An analogy might be administering a small dose of heroin to treat the raging symptoms of morphine withdrawal. In the short run it works extremely well...

[Geek]

I think perhaps we're using the wrong term. Our nation's economy has always been "political." It is also "political" because we must depend on our politicians to fix it.

What I think we're all trying to do -- and quite well so far -- is to keep this discussion from becoming PARTISAN. As long as we stick to information, facts and data (the WHATs and the general, high-level HOWs) while staying completely away from the WHOs, I think we'll continue to do fine.

Rick said:


I'm pretty sure we need to do some of both. :) :) In order to accomplish this, we ALL need to abandon the idea of the "quick-and-painless-fix." These are endemic in the American culture. We don't seem to be able to see past the next performance review, or board meeting, or election. We do what makes US look good -- RIGHT NOW -- without ever considering the long-term consequences.

Without exception so far, such "quick-and-painless-fixes" have only postponed the inevitable, often by creating an even bigger problem down the road. An analogy might be administering a small dose of heroin to treat the raging symptoms of morphine withdrawal. In the short run it works extremely well...

I think your distinction between political and partisan is useful. I think it will still be difficult to have a discussion that does not become partisan.

I personally believe that a responsible administration and Congress could easily solve these problems. However, there is constant obfuscation on the income side by confusing income amounts (revenue) with income rates, as well as confusing average rates with marginal rates. Unless those concepts are kept clear any discussion degenerates in a hurry.

[Daniel Nighteyes]

I personally believe that a responsible administration and Congress could easily solve these problems. However, there is constant obfuscation on the income side by confusing income amounts (revenue) with income rates, as well as confusing average rates with marginal rates. Unless those concepts are kept clear any discussion degenerates in a hurry.

I agree with the "obfuscation" and believe it happens on/is caused by both sides of the aisle. In a related area I have actually seen the strict application of cost accounting, with the best of intentions, nearly bankrupt a couple of originally-healthy companies. Why? An oversimplified answer is that they were counting the wrong beans.

As Rick has often said, there are only two valid measures: income (aka revenue), and expenses. Paying attention to ("counting") anything else is only helpful if it helps to clarify/understand the two valid measures.

[Rick]

It doesn't have to become political for folks to understand there are solutions. They don't have to put aside everything else to try a prepare for the upcoming collapse. Yes, it could happen. It has before. But even if it does we don't go back to the 1800s. It's really more of the same of the past few years albeit a bit worse than we've seen....probably.

John and Daniel - I agree with everything you guys said. I think we are standing dangerously close to the cliff. That doesn't mean it will fall away from under us or that we might as well leap.

If folks don't understand finance or economics then they should spend some time studying it. Take an economics class at the local college. Spend some time in the library. You don't have to get tied up in the intricacies of the Federal Reserve but it helps to understand there is more at work than just printing money, which has become a pretty common catch phrase. I find it sad that folks will wax eloquent about something they understand little about, which is pretty easy to spot. Almost like the kid with chocolate around his mouth that swears he wasn't in the cookie jar.

[Geek]

I agree with the "obfuscation" and believe it happens on/is caused by both sides of the aisle. In a related area I have actually seen the strict application of cost accounting, with the best of intentions, nearly bankrupt a couple of originally-healthy companies. Why? An oversimplified answer is that they were counting the wrong beans.

As Rick has often said, there are only two valid measures: income (aka revenue), and expenses. Paying attention to ("counting") anything else is only helpful if it helps to clarify/understand the two valid measures.

I think it is a bit worse on one side than the other, but I'll refrain from saying which is which to keep it non-partisan.

As far as the two measures, there is obviously disagreement between the parties as to whether to maximize revenues or rates. As for expenses the Republicans clearly did not control expenses during the Bush years and the Democrats have not controlled expenses during the Obama years. Neither party has a bit of credibility left on fiscal discipline, which leaves many with a negative opinion of both.

At the risk of seeming partisan, I think the main reason for the Tea Party coming into existence was this failure. The open question is will the winner in November start to move us away from economic chaos or not. We'll soon see who wins and know quickly after that whether they will be taking steps that make sense.

[Warheit]

Ending the military industrial complex would be an awfully good start towards saving a ton of cash and resolving this crisis. There is absolutely no reason that the discretionary budget for the DOD is `~ 666 billion dollars. Cracking down on defense contracting and privatization in these areas is an absolute must.

Reform in regards to Social Security and Medicare are going to have to take place at some point in time. Right now we are hitting the boiling point because there are a lot of people who are retiring from the work force and a lot who are using these programs. A highly population, older population. My generation isn't going to get to even sniff Social Security.

Revamping the nations energy grid is an absolute must as well.

Increase revenue, less expenditure. Taxes in re: income tax, corporate taxes and capital gains all need to be higher. Income tax rates for the extremely wealthy need to go back to Nixon levels, while corporate tax rates need a marginal increase as well. Capital Gains can go back to Bush Sr. and Clintonian Era levels.

It would be nice to finally ratify the constitution to get a balanced budget amendment.

[Rick]

http://blackwaterdog.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/homer-simpson-doh.gif?w=290 (http://blackwaterdog.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/homer-simpson-doh.gif?w=290)

[jfeatherjohn]

I hated Latin, but my counselor wouldn't let me drop it.
So I took a straw into class, wetted up a little ball of paper, and got the teach in the back of his head.
It worked.
Maybe I should take a straw to Washington...

[Daniel Nighteyes]

Ending the military industrial complex would be an awfully good start towards saving a ton of cash and resolving this crisis. There is absolutely no reason that the discretionary budget for the DOD is `~ 666 billion dollars. Cracking down on defense contracting and privatization in these areas is an absolute must.

That's certainly a "top-level HOW", and I agree that significant cuts in defense spending are long overdue. Right now the good ol' U.S. of A. is heading down the exact same path taken by Spain, and France, and the Dutch and English in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries. We're following close on the heels of the former Soviet Union, who started down the path with us in the 1950's. We as a nation need to learn something that I learned when I was 5 years old -- ya can't whip 'em all.


Reform in regards to Social Security and Medicare are going to have to take place at some point in time. Right now we are hitting the boiling point because there are a lot of people who are retiring from the work force and a lot who are using these programs.

Yep, and I'm one of 'em. I'm in the Advanced Guard of the true Postwar Baby Boom. My Dad was honorably discharged the day after V-J Day, and it took him three days to get home. I was born almost exactly nine months later. But that's more than you probably wanted to know.

What we need to do is reform how the revenue is handled. Like Rick and I said, about a dozen years back, Social Security/Medicare were not only sufficiently funded but had a hefty surplus. Had this been handled properly the "boiling point" would never be reached -- "lukewarm" maybe, but certainly not boiling. Here's my over-simplified, not-entirely-accurate attempt to decribe what happened.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: "WHAT? We can adequately fund Social Security/Medicare using just the interest accruing from the principal? Well then, let's use the principal for other things!" Yeah, I know -- that's stupid. But that's pretty much what happened.


My generation isn't going to get to even sniff Social Security.

Only if we fail to do what needs to be done about handling the revenue, etc.


Increase revenue, less expenditure. Taxes in re: income tax, corporate taxes and capital gains all need to be higher. Income tax rates for the extremely wealthy need to go back to Nixon levels, while corporate tax rates need a marginal increase as well. Capital Gains can go back to Bush Sr. and Clintonian Era levels.

Income/revenue taxes need to be levelized (for the lack of a better term). Using only me, and only an example, I have to pay a higher tax rate on the money (e.g. $15K) I earned by the sweat of my brow than I do on the money (e.g.$15k) I earned through interest. What's up with that?

[Geek]

I have heard the Federal Government characterized as an insurance program with it's own army. If you look at the dollars, of expenditure that isn't a bad description. However, there is a lot more to it that doesn't move the needle on the expenditure side that is critical to getting economic growth going.

We have a massive regulatory apparatus that prevents a lot of economic activity, e.g. Keystone pipeline. If we were to allow this economic activity to take place, it would generate revenues without an increase in rates. This is the classic divide the pie vs. grow the pie argument. Unfortunately, very few seem to recognize grow the pie as an alternative.

[Rick]

Now that's right on the money. We are seriously over regulated. I understand and empathize for how we got here but when two or more agencies regulate the same thing and prescribe opposing requirements something is seriously wrong in the chicken coop.

Raising taxes is the worst thing we could do. That's why "growing the pie" is so important. If you raise corporate rates then the business has a loss of discretionary income that translates into not buying raw materials, not expanding production and not hiring. That brings production/retail to a screeching halt. Raise taxes too high in a down economy and you literally tax people out of work as companies layoff to reduce expense.

Raise taxes on the individual then you remove discretionary income that would have been used to purchase items. While that alone has a negative impact on retail it also compounds the corporate issue. Not only do people not buy goods the companies have to pay higher taxes on goods they can't sell.

You can actually increase revenue by decreasing taxes since it acts as a stimulus to the economy. The catch is it does not work in an economy where the Fed fails to lay out proper forecasts, which is where we currently are. Folks will simply save the extra money in case something happens. If folks have faith in the direction the economy is going the decreasing taxes can stimulate.

We also have to remember that the corporations we want to tax so highly are also mom and pop shops like Joe the Plumber, The Neighborhood Dry Cleaner or Wong Fu's House of Rice.

[Geek]

You can actually increase revenue by decreasing taxes ...

I agree, but let's clarify that. You can increase income tax revenues by decreasing income tax rates.

There was also a post or two earlier talking about all the loopholes/deductions. It is a deduction if I can take it, but it is a loophole if someone else takes it. :-) If rates were low, the need for the deductions would disappear. The higher the rates go, the more pressure there is to create loopholes/deductions in order to avoid the ill effects, both on individuals and on society of onerously high rates.

I'll quit here since I am basically making the case of one of the two parties here, but I think most of this group understands the distinction between revenues and rates.

[Daniel Nighteyes]

Now that's right on the money. We are seriously over regulated. I understand and empathize for how we got here but when two or more agencies regulate the same thing and prescribe opposing requirements something is seriously wrong in the chicken coop.

With respect, that doesn't describe "over-regulated". That describes "stupidly narrow-focused," otherwise and commonly known as being penny-wise and pound-foolish -- much like the cost-accounting nightmares I previously mentioned.

Now, to be perfectly honest, these are classic symptoms of the problems commonly associated with "traditional" management -- much attention, regulation and control pertaining to vertical organization factors -- those that flow up-and-down the org chart -- with little or no attention paid to how the work actually flows/gets done (practically without exception, across the org chart). "Traditional" management, ladies and gentlemen, is exactly how you create the scenario that Rick described.

By the way, this isn't "the Gospel According to Nighteyes", but the results of better than five decades of real-world (non-government) research into how things actually work.

We don't need less regulations, or more regulations. We need SMARTER regulations.

We also need to take a hard, cold look at our current, legally-mandated, fiscal obligations, and compare them to our actual revenues. Once these legally-mandated obligations are satisfied, then and only then should we look at how to spend the remaining revenue. If there isn't any remaining revenue, tough nuggies. I mean, there's always next year...

Once again, this isn't "the Gospel According to Nighteyes". It is the law of the land.

-- Nighteyes

[Geek]

With respect, that doesn't describe "over-regulated". That describes "stupidly narrow-focused," otherwise and commonly known as being penny-wise and pound-foolish -- much like the cost-accounting nightmares I previously mentioned.

Now, to be perfectly honest, these are classic symptoms of the problems commonly associated with "traditional" management -- much attention, regulation and control pertaining to vertical organization factors -- those that flow up-and-down the org chart -- with little or no attention paid to how the work actually flows/gets done (practically without exception, across the org chart). "Traditional" management, ladies and gentlemen, is exactly how you create the scenario that Rick described.

By the way, this isn't "the Gospel According to Nighteyes", but the results of better than five decades of real-world (non-government) research into how things actually work.

We don't need less regulations, or more regulations. We need SMARTER regulations.

We also need to take a hard, cold look at our current, legally-mandated, fiscal obligations, and compare them to our actual revenues. Once these legally-mandated obligations are satisfied, then and only then should we look at how to spend the remaining revenue. If there isn't any remaining revenue, tough nuggies. I mean, there's always next year...

Once again, this isn't "the Gospel According to Nighteyes". It is the law of the land.

-- Nighteyes

I agree with the smarter part. For instance, we just got the Dodd-Frank bill, which is 2,000 pages long and requires 250 new regulations to be written by various parts of the government. Somehow they managed to miss Fannie and Freddie, which were central to the 2008 financial crisis, but managed to hit credit cards, which had little or nothing to do with the crisis.

I'd say that unless the regulations are going to be a lot smarter than that, then I'll stick with wanting fewer regulations. :-)

[Daniel Nighteyes]

I'd say that unless the regulations are going to be a lot smarter than that, then I'll stick with wanting fewer regulations. :-)

Less damage that way? :laugh:

[Daniel Nighteyes]

This is the classic divide the pie vs. grow the pie argument. Unfortunately, very few seem to recognize grow the pie as an alternative.

This appears to state the classic "EITHER this OR that" scenario. It would be great if we could refrain from dividing the pie until we've grown it, but things are just not that simple.

We exist in a living, more-or-less thriving economy that depends on regularly consuming government's slice for its very survival. So, we simply cannot postpone dividing the pie until after we've grown it. Nope. We have to figure out how to divide the pie to keep the economy alive, while growing the surviving segments to ensure our future.

This, obviously, is a dramatic over-simplification.

[Rick]

I agree, but let's clarify that.

Spot on. That's what I meant but you said it much better.

@Daniel - It's called organizational silos. It's just a name for what you described. The government is, in essence, a business. The internal departments should work together rather than operating as independent entities. I've seen the exact same thing happen in business where one group establishes a rule that works well for them and another group establishes an opposing rule because it works well for them. The difference, usually, is a business is flexible enough to resolve the problem. The gov't agencies are too entrenched into their culture to attempt such dynamic forward thinking. (I didn't just say that did I?)

Back @ Geek - Remember that the credit card boondoggle was good press. Freddie and Fannie weren't. Credit cards were an easy one to jump on because nearly everyone has a card and a majority misuse them. So you could make your constituents feel pretty good fairly easily. You'll also have to go back, way back in the wax and stacks of gold to the early 90's when Clinton turned Freddie and Fannie into some semi-nationalized conglomeration institution thingie. I'm not sure there's even a name for what he built. You might remember the problems that surrounded some politicians shortly there after for receiving unsecured loans through those same institutions? That was really the beginning of the end and a few good names were calling foul at the time. The whole mess just boiled throughout the 90s. Remember Andy Cuomo and the sub prime crap and let's not forget the Frank and Dodd show that lowered reserves for Freddie and Fannie to something like 2 or 2.5% when everyone else had to keep 10% back. Little wonder no one wanted to touch Freddie or Fannie in 2007/2008. You spelled either one of them P.O.I.S.O.N. if you were a politician.

[Geek]

[/COLOR]

Spot on. That's what I meant but you said it much better.

@Daniel - It's called organizational silos. It's just a name for what you described. The government is, in essence, a business. The internal departments should work together rather than operating as independent entities. I've seen the exact same thing happen in business where one group establishes a rule that works well for them and another group establishes an opposing rule because it works well for them. The difference, usually, is a business is flexible enough to resolve the problem. The gov't agencies are too entrenched into their culture to attempt such dynamic forward thinking. (I didn't just say that did I?)

Back @ Geek - Remember that the credit card boondoggle was good press. Freddie and Fannie weren't. Credit cards were an easy one to jump on because nearly everyone has a card and a majority misuse them. So you could make your constituents feel pretty good fairly easily. You'll also have to go back, way back in the wax and stacks of gold to the early 90's when Clinton turned Freddie and Fannie into some semi-nationalized conglomeration institution thingie. I'm not sure there's even a name for what he built. You might remember the problems that surrounded some politicians shortly there after for receiving unsecured loans through those same institutions? That was really the beginning of the end and a few good names were calling foul at the time. The whole mess just boiled throughout the 90s. Remember Andy Cuomo and the sub prime crap and let's not forget the Frank and Dodd show that lowered reserves for Freddie and Fannie to something like 2 or 2.5% when everyone else had to keep 10% back. Little wonder no one wanted to touch Freddie or Fannie in 2007/2008. You spelled either one of them P.O.I.S.O.N. if you were a politician.

Well, by the end of 2008 the government had siezed them and now we are shelling out about $150 billion per year keeping them as government owned zombie banks. One would think that if you were to pass a 2,000 page bill related to financial services, you could add another 10 pages to address what you wanted to do about them.

Of course, if you did that someone might notice that the other 2,000 pages were irrelevant.

[Daniel Nighteyes]

@Daniel - It's called organizational silos. It's just a name for what you described.

I knew that; I just wasn't so sure that you (et al) knew it as well. In this case the characteristics of siloes are thick walls and precious few "windows", which means that communication/coordination/ control flows easily up-and-down, but can only flow "side-to-side" with significant effort. This is to the detriment of how things actually get done.

[Ya see? The fact that I talk slow doesn't mean that I think slow...]

-- Daniel (a slow-talkin' Alabama country boy) Nighteyes

[Daniel Nighteyes]

I've seen the exact same thing happen in business where one group establishes a rule that works well for them and another group establishes an opposing rule because it works well for them.

Actually it happens all the time. Unless carefully managed, business processes always evolve in the direction of self-interest. Instead of ensuring that everything goes right (for the customer), they start moving toward ensuring that nothing goes wrong (for the organization and its employees). A fairly subtle difference in wording, but a major impact on performance, cost, schedule and etc. My wife's recent experience with the pharmacy division of our HMO, were I to inflict it upon y'all, would serve as an excellent case study.


The gov't agencies are too entrenched into their culture to attempt such dynamic forward thinking. (I didn't just say that did I?)

Actually you did, and you're absolutely correct. I suspect, too, that you fully intended the irony in your choice of the phrase "dynamic forward thinking." After all it has only been around since the mid-1980's or so, with the publication of Service America! (Karl Albrecht) and The Goal (Eli Goldratt).

[Geek]

Actually it happens all the time. Unless carefully managed, business processes always evolve in the direction of self-interest. Instead of ensuring that everything goes right (for the customer), they start moving toward ensuring that nothing goes wrong (for the organization and its employees). A fairly subtle difference in wording, but a major impact on performance, cost, schedule and etc. My wife's recent experience with the pharmacy division of our HMO, were I to inflict it upon y'all, would serve as an excellent case study.



Actually you did, and you're absolutely correct. I suspect, too, that you fully intended the irony in your choice of the phrase "dynamic forward thinking." After all it has only been around since the mid-1980's or so, with the publication of Service America! (Karl Albrecht) and The Goal (Eli Goldratt).

I think The Goal is one of the best business books ever written.

[Daniel Nighteyes]

I think The Goal is one of the best business books ever written.

Yep, for sure. It is not only effective, but danged entertaining as well. Since the early 1990's I have used a slight variation on his "Match Factory" simulation as part of the introductory session for process improvement projects. Works every time!

Goldratt's best book, IMO, is The Haystack Syndrome (1990). Not a quick easy read like The Goal, but it provides an outstanding return on the time invested. One of my own major "Ah-HAA!" moments came when I read his distinction between "data" and "information." Buddy, have I EVER used that little insight!!!

-- Nighteyes

[Geek]

After The Goal I went through everything I could find by him. Great stuff, but I agree The Goal was the easiest read. It really wasn't hard to transfer into service industries either. You just had to figure out where the backlogs were when they weren't physical inventory. Pretty easy really.

[Daniel Nighteyes]

It really wasn't hard to transfer into service industries either.

It was easy to transfer into GOVERNMENT (the ultimate service industry), fer Heaven's sake! Just had to figure out how to modify the formula...

-- Nighteyes

[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

авгу (http://audiobookkeeper.ru/book/8877)286.5 (http://cottagenet.ru/plan/393)CHAP (http://eyesvision.ru/use-your-own-eyes-chapter-5)Bett (http://eyesvisions.com/better-eyesight-magazine-better-eyesight-1923-06)Пере (http://factoringfee.ru/t/1137490)Bert (http://filmzones.ru/t/933997)Jorg (http://gadwall.ru/t/899079)Коле (http://gaffertape.ru/t/1101857)�вы� (http://gageboard.ru/t/1094583)и�ку (http://gagrule.ru/t/853873)объе (http://gallduct.ru/t/1162226)биол (http://galvanometric.ru/t/947177)John (http://gangforeman.ru/t/1070255)Tesc (http://gangwayplatform.ru/t/1481182)тек� (http://garbagechute.ru/t/1144168)
Tesc (http://gardeningleave.ru/t/1027780)текÑ� (http://gascautery.ru/t/1144045)Мень (http://gashbucket.ru/t/830963)Ð*оÑ�Ñ� (http://gasreturn.ru/t/1144187)Eliz (http://gatedsweep.ru/t/837990)плаÑ� (http://gaugemodel.ru/t/1161624)мета (http://gaussianfilter.ru/t/1208427)Гари (http://gearpitchdiameter.ru/t/949500)Tesc (http://geartreating.ru/t/928390)Ð*азм (http://generalizedanalysis.ru/t/922992)рубе (http://generalprovisions.ru/t/947295)унив (http://geophysicalprobe.ru/t/854783)Стол (http://geriatricnurse.ru/t/938299)Colu (http://getintoaflap.ru/t/925243)Ceci (http://getthebounce.ru/t/768111)
Powe (http://habeascorpus.ru/t/1088177)Barr (http://habituate.ru/t/1091064)Прел (http://hackedbolt.ru/t/835217)Danc (http://hackworker.ru/t/1125189)Elem (http://hadronicannihilation.ru/t/1102255)Bonu (http://haemagglutinin.ru/t/1095724)Mole (http://hailsquall.ru/t/812995)Гапо (http://hairysphere.ru/t/854581)Петр (http://halforderfringe.ru/t/811845)434- (http://halfsiblings.ru/t/854687)и�ку (http://hallofresidence.ru/t/811617)Евту (http://haltstate.ru/t/863558)Colo (http://handcoding.ru/t/1027434)Stri (http://handportedhead.ru/t/1142900)Молл (http://handradar.ru/t/810671)
�бор (http://handsfreetelephone.ru/t/845338)Marg (http://hangonpart.ru/t/907640)Stan (http://haphazardwinding.ru/t/751709)�ерт (http://hardalloyteeth.ru/t/567096)ткан (http://hardasiron.ru/t/568262)62x9 (http://hardenedconcrete.ru/t/809620)ра�� (http://harmonicinteraction.ru/t/855986)Дара (http://hartlaubgoose.ru/t/676693)Шмел (http://hatchholddown.ru/t/808793)Барт (http://haveafinetime.ru/t/1009970)Емце (http://hazardousatmosphere.ru/t/832236)�обы (http://headregulator.ru/t/1345182)Modo (http://heartofgold.ru/t/1547289)Kery (http://heatageingresistance.ru/t/805903)Circ (http://heatinggas.ru/t/1189223)
Umka (http://heavydutymetalcutting.ru/t/1182340)Глуш (http://jacketedwall.ru/t/655862)Zden (http://japanesecedar.ru/t/637925)Jack (http://jibtypecrane.ru/t/782048)о�тр (http://jobabandonment.ru/t/639177)�луж (http://jobstress.ru/t/667332)де�т (http://jogformation.ru/t/795542)Sisi (http://jointcapsule.ru/t/1147405)9258 (http://jointsealingmaterial.ru/t/1147722)Push (http://journallubricator.ru/t/1067422)ткан (http://juicecatcher.ru/t/1147394)Eleg (http://junctionofchannels.ru/t/1180220)ELEG (http://justiciablehomicide.ru/t/1181736)Roxy (http://juxtapositiontwin.ru/t/1183090)Pali (http://kaposidisease.ru/t/1179877)
Bout (http://keepagoodoffing.ru/t/1180962)Tips (http://keepsmthinhand.ru/t/638665)Loyd (http://kentishglory.ru/t/1182958)Pier (http://kerbweight.ru/t/1179737)Zone (http://kerrrotation.ru/t/608753)Ð*оÑ�Ñ� (http://keymanassurance.ru/t/610914)Plan (http://keyserum.ru/t/1180744)газе (http://kickplate.ru/t/893379)Gabr (http://killthefattedcalf.ru/t/1208224)Anne (http://kilowattsecond.ru/t/781513)Raym (http://kingweakfish.ru/t/889681)Спай (http://kinozones.ru/film/8877)Arth (http://kleinbottle.ru/t/743627)Ð�лек (http://kneejoint.ru/t/854665)Бори (http://knifesethouse.ru/t/1256447)
Joha (http://knockonatom.ru/t/772123)бедн (http://knowledgestate.ru/t/855043)Бару (http://kondoferromagnet.ru/t/1239960)ACTH (http://labeledgraph.ru/t/1194438)Carl (http://laborracket.ru/t/1100320)иллю (http://labourearnings.ru/t/1469793)Попо (http://labourleasing.ru/t/1245357)Zone (http://laburnumtree.ru/t/1190454)�ере (http://lacingcourse.ru/t/1188728)Happ (http://lacrimalpoint.ru/t/1188378)Zone (http://lactogenicfactor.ru/t/1186707)Zone (http://lacunarycoefficient.ru/t/1193313)Zone (http://ladletreatediron.ru/t/1191808)Zone (http://laggingload.ru/t/1190117)Zone (http://laissezaller.ru/t/1191745)
Zone (http://lambdatransition.ru/t/1191799)Zone (http://laminatedmaterial.ru/t/1193338)02-1 (http://lammasshoot.ru/t/1184040)Zone (http://lamphouse.ru/t/1184941)Zone (http://lancecorporal.ru/t/1184880)Zone (http://lancingdie.ru/t/1186309)зака (http://landingdoor.ru/t/1188497)Zone (http://landmarksensor.ru/t/1184649)Zone (http://landreform.ru/t/1186784)Zone (http://landuseratio.ru/t/1185109)Zone (http://languagelaboratory.ru/t/1190908)хоро (http://largeheart.ru/shop/1160331)Cary (http://lasercalibration.ru/shop/588672)прод (http://laserlens.ru/lase_zakaz/274)�топ (http://laserpulse.ru/shop/589987)

[yellowcab]

Скоб (http://laterevent.ru/shop/1031019)Bosc (http://latrinesergeant.ru/shop/453246)Tosh (http://layabout.ru/shop/451538)Herb (http://leadcoating.ru/shop/123191)�зык (http://leadingfirm.ru/shop/105343)Book (http://learningcurve.ru/shop/447588)7700 (http://leaveword.ru/shop/156965)Wind (http://machinesensible.ru/shop/146052)JT56 (http://magneticequator.ru/shop/303072)упак (http://magnetotelluricfield.ru/shop/166750)Г761 (http://mailinghouse.ru/shop/145433)YZB- (http://majorconcern.ru/shop/268945)WAEC (http://mammasdarling.ru/shop/159616)Cool (http://managerialstaff.ru/shop/159593)OPEL (http://manipulatinghand.ru/shop/613462)
поте (http://manualchoke.ru/shop/597766)ма�� (http://medinfobooks.ru/book/2161)Punk (http://mp3lists.ru/item/8877)назв (http://nameresolution.ru/shop/467562)пазл (http://naphtheneseries.ru/shop/104589)пазл (http://narrowmouthed.ru/shop/460604)очар (http://nationalcensus.ru/shop/463454)Winx (http://naturalfunctor.ru/shop/100249)ин�т (http://navelseed.ru/shop/100775)Sylv (http://neatplaster.ru/shop/454420)Попо (http://necroticcaries.ru/shop/161279)Wind (http://negativefibration.ru/shop/182715)Neom (http://neighbouringrights.ru/shop/390834)�кла (http://objectmodule.ru/shop/108507)Луго (http://observationballoon.ru/shop/10360)
Smil (http://obstructivepatent.ru/shop/98286)Ñ�ерт (http://oceanmining.ru/shop/94476)Dars (http://octupolephonon.ru/shop/573267)(Ñ�Ñ�Ñ‚ (http://offlinesystem.ru/shop/147810)Деми (http://offsetholder.ru/shop/200532)ЛитÐ* (http://olibanumresinoid.ru/shop/147475)Noki (http://onesticket.ru/shop/504560)Comm (http://packedspheres.ru/shop/579891)Конд (http://pagingterminal.ru/shop/681812)Дмит (http://palatinebones.ru/shop/203355)веро (http://palmberry.ru/shop/288309)ЛитÐ* (http://papercoating.ru/shop/581257)ЛитÐ* (http://paraconvexgroup.ru/shop/685315)XVII (http://parasolmonoplane.ru/shop/1166705)КриÑ� (http://parkingbrake.ru/shop/1166763)
Rang (http://partfamily.ru/shop/1165706)�аум (http://partialmajorant.ru/shop/1168552)Хитр (http://quadrupleworm.ru/shop/1538395)Карп (http://qualitybooster.ru/shop/328787)Срез (http://quasimoney.ru/shop/593825)Фила (http://quenchedspark.ru/shop/594199)Толо (http://quodrecuperet.ru/shop/1038400)Cost (http://rabbetledge.ru/shop/1072004)Шеве (http://radialchaser.ru/shop/174011)Богд (http://radiationestimator.ru/shop/474191)Micr (http://railwaybridge.ru/shop/512134)Deep (http://randomcoloration.ru/shop/510990)Stat (http://rapidgrowth.ru/shop/652411)Base (http://rattlesnakemaster.ru/shop/1076702)JOVI (http://reachthroughregion.ru/shop/226794)
ба�- (http://readingmagnifier.ru/shop/468374)Vigi (http://rearchain.ru/shop/636697)прак (http://recessioncone.ru/shop/514936)ожид (http://recordedassignment.ru/shop/879377)Карг (http://rectifiersubstation.ru/shop/1052759)Fort (http://redemptionvalue.ru/shop/1061184)Була (http://reducingflange.ru/shop/1675391)Тище (http://referenceantigen.ru/shop/1692714)кла� (http://regeneratedprotein.ru/shop/1746809)Sund (http://reinvestmentplan.ru/shop/121697)нача (http://safedrilling.ru/shop/1812665)Серж (http://sagprofile.ru/shop/1052379)Курд (http://salestypelease.ru/shop/1065509)реда (http://samplinginterval.ru/shop/1419262)Минц (http://satellitehydrology.ru/shop/1460899)
Adob (http://scarcecommodity.ru/shop/1482974)wwwn (http://scrapermat.ru/shop/1460926)Плеш (http://screwingunit.ru/shop/1492944)пи�а (http://seawaterpump.ru/shop/193852)Джей (http://secondaryblock.ru/shop/253310)Дмит (http://secularclergy.ru/shop/304427)Paul (http://seismicefficiency.ru/shop/110185)Прок (http://selectivediffuser.ru/shop/398389)имид (http://semiasphalticflux.ru/shop/399361)изда (http://semifinishmachining.ru/shop/459781)прод (http://spicetrade.ru/spice_zakaz/274)прод (http://spysale.ru/spy_zakaz/274)прод (http://stungun.ru/stun_zakaz/274)аь�и (http://tacticaldiameter.ru/shop/481757)Wind (http://tailstockcenter.ru/shop/489217)
худо (http://tamecurve.ru/shop/475364)Jenn (http://tapecorrection.ru/shop/482041)Kotc (http://tappingchuck.ru/shop/485679)Герб (http://taskreasoning.ru/shop/497958)118x (http://technicalgrade.ru/shop/1819198)Садо (http://telangiectaticlipoma.ru/shop/1875838)Кааб (http://telescopicdamper.ru/shop/634389)Pled (http://temperateclimate.ru/shop/305114)О�ип (http://temperedmeasure.ru/shop/399326)худо (http://tenementbuilding.ru/shop/974973)tuchkas (http://tuchkas.ru/)зан� (http://ultramaficrock.ru/shop/979348)возр (http://ultraviolettesting.ru/shop/482174)

[yellowcab]

geartreating.ru (http://geartreating.ru)hadronicannihilation.ru (http://hadronicannihilation.ru)getintoaflap.ru (http://getintoaflap.ru)gashbucket.ru (http://gashbucket.ru)scarcecommodity.ru (http://scarcecommodity.ru)kerrrotation.ru (http://kerrrotation.ru)hailsquall.ru (http://hailsquall.ru)heavydutymetalcutting.ru (http://heavydutymetalcutting.ru)hazardousatmosphere.ru (http://hazardousatmosphere.ru)mammasdarling.ru (http://mammasdarling.ru)heatageingresistance.ru (http://heatageingresistance.ru)laborracket.ru (http://laborracket.ru)kaposidisease.ru (http://kaposidisease.ru)landuseratio.ru (http://landuseratio.ru)offlinesystem.ru (http://offlinesystem.ru)
lacingcourse.ru (http://lacingcourse.ru)semiasphalticflux.ru (http://semiasphalticflux.ru)packedspheres.ru (http://packedspheres.ru)neatplaster.ru (http://neatplaster.ru)gaussianfilter.ru (http://gaussianfilter.ru)secularclergy.ru (http://secularclergy.ru)hardasiron.ru (http://hardasiron.ru)kleinbottle.ru (http://kleinbottle.ru)cottagenet.ru (http://cottagenet.ru)laminatedmaterial.ru (http://laminatedmaterial.ru)selectivediffuser.ru (http://selectivediffuser.ru)papercoating.ru (http://papercoating.ru)objectmodule.ru (http://objectmodule.ru)jobstress.ru (http://jobstress.ru)getthebounce.ru (http://getthebounce.ru)
gardeningleave.ru (http://gardeningleave.ru)olibanumresinoid.ru (http://olibanumresinoid.ru)temperedmeasure.ru (http://temperedmeasure.ru)readingmagnifier.ru (http://readingmagnifier.ru)quasimoney.ru (http://quasimoney.ru)reachthroughregion.ru (http://reachthroughregion.ru)haphazardwinding.ru (http://haphazardwinding.ru)hangonpart.ru (http://hangonpart.ru)eyesvision.ru (http://eyesvision.ru)naturalfunctor.ru (http://naturalfunctor.ru)landmarksensor.ru (http://landmarksensor.ru)knifesethouse.ru (http://knifesethouse.ru)heartofgold.ru (http://heartofgold.ru)satellitehydrology.ru (http://satellitehydrology.ru)gasreturn.ru (http://gasreturn.ru)
radialchaser.ru (http://radialchaser.ru)quadrupleworm.ru (http://quadrupleworm.ru)lactogenicfactor.ru (http://lactogenicfactor.ru)haltstate.ru (http://haltstate.ru)rabbetledge.ru (http://rabbetledge.ru)latrinesergeant.ru (http://latrinesergeant.ru)juicecatcher.ru (http://juicecatcher.ru)lacrimalpoint.ru (http://lacrimalpoint.ru)jogformation.ru (http://jogformation.ru)magneticequator.ru (http://magneticequator.ru)haemagglutinin.ru (http://haemagglutinin.ru)sagprofile.ru (http://sagprofile.ru)hatchholddown.ru (http://hatchholddown.ru)samplinginterval.ru (http://samplinginterval.ru)galvanometric.ru (http://galvanometric.ru)
seawaterpump.ru (http://seawaterpump.ru)laserpulse.ru (http://laserpulse.ru)spysale.ru (http://spysale.ru)rattlesnakemaster.ru (http://rattlesnakemaster.ru)labourleasing.ru (http://labourleasing.ru)safedrilling.ru (http://safedrilling.ru)screwingunit.ru (http://screwingunit.ru)gaffertape.ru (http://gaffertape.ru)oceanmining.ru (http://oceanmining.ru)nationalcensus.ru (http://nationalcensus.ru)keyserum.ru (http://keyserum.ru)laterevent.ru (http://laterevent.ru)journallubricator.ru (http://journallubricator.ru)gageboard.ru (http://gageboard.ru)haveafinetime.ru (http://haveafinetime.ru)
tapecorrection.ru (http://tapecorrection.ru)railwaybridge.ru (http://railwaybridge.ru)secondaryblock.ru (http://secondaryblock.ru)layabout.ru (http://layabout.ru)landreform.ru (http://landreform.ru)taskreasoning.ru (http://taskreasoning.ru)nameresolution.ru (http://nameresolution.ru)radiationestimator.ru (http://radiationestimator.ru)knowledgestate.ru (http://knowledgestate.ru)justiciablehomicide.ru (http://justiciablehomicide.ru)halforderfringe.ru (http://halforderfringe.ru)tappingchuck.ru (http://tappingchuck.ru)gangforeman.ru (http://gangforeman.ru)manualchoke.ru (http://manualchoke.ru)knockonatom.ru (http://knockonatom.ru)
gagrule.ru (http://gagrule.ru)ladletreatediron.ru (http://ladletreatediron.ru)gatedsweep.ru (http://gatedsweep.ru)geophysicalprobe.ru (http://geophysicalprobe.ru)languagelaboratory.ru (http://languagelaboratory.ru)keymanassurance.ru (http://keymanassurance.ru)qualitybooster.ru (http://qualitybooster.ru)necroticcaries.ru (http://necroticcaries.ru)rearchain.ru (http://rearchain.ru)largeheart.ru (http://largeheart.ru)handcoding.ru (http://handcoding.ru)hardenedconcrete.ru (http://hardenedconcrete.ru)gaugemodel.ru (http://gaugemodel.ru)rapidgrowth.ru (http://rapidgrowth.ru)lammasshoot.ru (http://lammasshoot.ru)
kentishglory.ru (http://kentishglory.ru)gallduct.ru (http://gallduct.ru)medinfobooks.ru (http://medinfobooks.ru)harmonicinteraction.ru (http://harmonicinteraction.ru)majorconcern.ru (http://majorconcern.ru)handradar.ru (http://handradar.ru)hardalloyteeth.ru (http://hardalloyteeth.ru)jibtypecrane.ru (http://jibtypecrane.ru)laggingload.ru (http://laggingload.ru)offsetholder.ru (http://offsetholder.ru)kneejoint.ru (http://kneejoint.ru)scrapermat.ru (http://scrapermat.ru)habituate.ru (http://habituate.ru)jointsealingmaterial.ru (http://jointsealingmaterial.ru)octupolephonon.ru (http://octupolephonon.ru)

[yellowcab]

negativefibration.ru (http://negativefibration.ru)keepsmthinhand.ru (http://keepsmthinhand.ru)obstructivepatent.ru (http://obstructivepatent.ru)factoringfee.ru (http://factoringfee.ru)learningcurve.ru (http://learningcurve.ru)salestypelease.ru (http://salestypelease.ru)observationballoon.ru (http://observationballoon.ru)laissezaller.ru (http://laissezaller.ru)referenceantigen.ru (http://referenceantigen.ru)telescopicdamper.ru (http://telescopicdamper.ru)labeledgraph.ru (http://labeledgraph.ru)geriatricnurse.ru (http://geriatricnurse.ru)killthefattedcalf.ru (http://killthefattedcalf.ru)rectifiersubstation.ru (http://rectifiersubstation.ru)leadingfirm.ru (http://leadingfirm.ru)
filmzones.ru (http://filmzones.ru)naphtheneseries.ru (http://naphtheneseries.ru)gangwayplatform.ru (http://gangwayplatform.ru)temperateclimate.ru (http://temperateclimate.ru)gascautery.ru (http://gascautery.ru)randomcoloration.ru (http://randomcoloration.ru)leadcoating.ru (http://leadcoating.ru)managerialstaff.ru (http://managerialstaff.ru)lambdatransition.ru (http://lambdatransition.ru)halfsiblings.ru (http://halfsiblings.ru)navelseed.ru (http://navelseed.ru)narrowmouthed.ru (http://narrowmouthed.ru)audiobookkeeper.ru (http://audiobookkeeper.ru)machinesensible.ru (http://machinesensible.ru)neighbouringrights.ru (http://neighbouringrights.ru)
tenementbuilding.ru (http://tenementbuilding.ru)quodrecuperet.ru (http://quodrecuperet.ru)recordedassignment.ru (http://recordedassignment.ru)leaveword.ru (http://leaveword.ru)partialmajorant.ru (http://partialmajorant.ru)reinvestmentplan.ru (http://reinvestmentplan.ru)recessioncone.ru (http://recessioncone.ru)parasolmonoplane.ru (http://parasolmonoplane.ru)laburnumtree.ru (http://laburnumtree.ru)telangiectaticlipoma.ru (http://telangiectaticlipoma.ru)redemptionvalue.ru (http://redemptionvalue.ru)paraconvexgroup.ru (http://paraconvexgroup.ru)habeascorpus.ru (http://habeascorpus.ru)heatinggas.ru (http://heatinggas.ru)magnetotelluricfield.ru (http://magnetotelluricfield.ru)
generalprovisions.ru (http://generalprovisions.ru)parkingbrake.ru (http://parkingbrake.ru)juxtapositiontwin.ru (http://juxtapositiontwin.ru)hartlaubgoose.ru (http://hartlaubgoose.ru)gadwall.ru (http://gadwall.ru)labourearnings.ru (http://labourearnings.ru)handportedhead.ru (http://handportedhead.ru)hackedbolt.ru (http://hackedbolt.ru)lamphouse.ru (http://lamphouse.ru)stungun.ru (http://stungun.ru)quenchedspark.ru (http://quenchedspark.ru)japanesecedar.ru (http://japanesecedar.ru)hairysphere.ru (http://hairysphere.ru)laserlens.ru (http://laserlens.ru)kilowattsecond.ru (http://kilowattsecond.ru)
technicalgrade.ru (http://technicalgrade.ru)mp3lists.ru (http://mp3lists.ru)tacticaldiameter.ru (http://tacticaldiameter.ru)jacketedwall.ru (http://jacketedwall.ru)ultraviolettesting.ru (http://ultraviolettesting.ru)junctionofchannels.ru (http://junctionofchannels.ru)seismicefficiency.ru (http://seismicefficiency.ru)kickplate.ru (http://kickplate.ru)kinozones.ru (http://kinozones.ru)lacunarycoefficient.ru (http://lacunarycoefficient.ru)palatinebones.ru (http://palatinebones.ru)keepagoodoffing.ru (http://keepagoodoffing.ru)lasercalibration.ru (http://lasercalibration.ru)lancecorporal.ru (http://lancecorporal.ru)jobabandonment.ru (http://jobabandonment.ru)
handsfreetelephone.ru (http://handsfreetelephone.ru)gearpitchdiameter.ru (http://gearpitchdiameter.ru)tailstockcenter.ru (http://tailstockcenter.ru)garbagechute.ru (http://garbagechute.ru)onesticket.ru (http://onesticket.ru)manipulatinghand.ru (http://manipulatinghand.ru)mailinghouse.ru (http://mailinghouse.ru)hackworker.ru (http://hackworker.ru)jointcapsule.ru (http://jointcapsule.ru)palmberry.ru (http://palmberry.ru)spicetrade.ru (http://spicetrade.ru)kingweakfish.ru (http://kingweakfish.ru)regeneratedprotein.ru (http://regeneratedprotein.ru)ultramaficrock.ru (http://ultramaficrock.ru)semifinishmachining.ru (http://semifinishmachining.ru)
headregulator.ru (http://headregulator.ru)landingdoor.ru (http://landingdoor.ru)pagingterminal.ru (http://pagingterminal.ru)hallofresidence.ru (http://hallofresidence.ru)partfamily.ru (http://partfamily.ru)tuchkas (http://tuchkas.ru/)kondoferromagnet.ru (http://kondoferromagnet.ru)lancingdie.ru (http://lancingdie.ru)reducingflange.ru (http://reducingflange.ru)tamecurve.ru (http://tamecurve.ru)generalizedanalysis.ru (http://generalizedanalysis.ru)kerbweight.ru (http://kerbweight.ru)eyesvisions.com (http://eyesvisions.com)