View Full Version : What SHTF scenarios do you anticipate?
BraggSurvivor
02-25-2008, 09:31 PM
Question from another site:
I'm not trying to be rude -- I'm genuinely curious, and trying to understand things better.
There are a lot of threads on this forum about how to prepare, but nobody's saying much about what situation/s they're preparing for. Obviously, part of that has to do with the fact that a lot of the same preparations would be useful for a variety of different events. But still, there have to be specific scenarios that you're anticipating: natural disasters that are common to your area, local terrorist or military targets, specific economic issues, etc.
So tell me, what scenarios do you anticipate that would require the kind of survivalist preparations you're currently making?
Are you more worried about natural disasters (and the poor management that often follows) or human-initiated disasters?
Do you think it's only a matter of time before you'll have to bug-out or bug-in, or do you make these preparations with the idea that you'll probably never have to use them?
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I plan for a natural or man made disaster. I'll give you a list and the definitions because it's part of my overall family disaster plan:
Biological Threat: A biological attack is the deliberate release of germs or other biological substances that can make you sick. Many agents must be inhaled, enter through a cut in the skin or be eaten to make you sick. Some biological agents, such as anthrax, do not cause contagious diseases. Others, like the smallpox virus, can result in diseases you can catch from other people.
Chemical Threat: A chemical attack is the deliberate release of a toxic gas, liquid or solid that can poison people and the environment.
Dam Failure: A dam failure or levee breach is a catastrophic event characterized by the sudden, rapid, and uncontrolled release of impounded water.
Earthquakes: An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the Earth, caused by the breaking and shifting of subterranean rock.
Explosion: A release of mechanical, chemical or nuclear energy in a sudden and often violent manner with the generation of high temperature and usually with the release of gases.
Extreme Heat: An extended period of high temperatures often accompanied by high humidity.
Fire: A state, process or instance of combustion in which fuel or other material is ignited and combined with oxygen, giving off light, heat, and flame.
Flood: Refers to the overflowing of normally dry areas, often after heavy rains. Flood is usually applied to the overflow of a great body of water, as, for example, a river, although it may refer to any water that overflows an area.
Hazardous Material: Any substance or mixture of substances having properties capable of producing adverse effects on the health and safety or the environment of a human being.
Hurricane: A severe tropical storm that forms in the southern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Influenza Pandemic: A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza A virus emerges for which there is little or no known immunity in the human population and the virus begins to cause serious illness and then spreads easily person-to-person worldwide.
Landslide/Debris Flow: Landslides, also known as mudslides and debris flows, are the downward falling or sliding of a mass of soil, detritus or rock on or from a steep slope. They can be caused by a variety of factors including earthquakes, storms, and fires.
Nuclear Threat: An explosion with intense light and heat, a damaging pressure wave and widespread radioactive material that can contaminate the air, water and ground surfaces for miles around. An event typically recognized with an attack by a foreign power.
Nuclear Power Plant Emergency: An accident comprised by the release of radioactive material from the plant into the environment, usually characterized by a plume (cloud-like formation) of radioactive gases and particles. The major hazards to people in the vicinity of the plume are radiation exposure to the body from the cloud and particles deposited on the ground, inhalation of radioactive materials, and ingestion of radioactive materials.
There are two “emergency planning zones” in the event of an accident. One zone covers an area within a 10-mile radius of the plant, where it is possible that people could be harmed by direct radiation exposure. The second zone covers a broader area, usually up to a 50-mile radius from the plant, where radioactive materials could contaminate water supplies, food crops, and livestock.
Radiation Threat: A radiation threat, commonly referred to as a "dirty bomb" or radiological dispersion device (RDD)", is the use of common explosives to spread radioactive materials over a targeted area. It is not a nuclear blast. The force of the explosion and radioactive contamination will be more localized.
Terrorism: The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence by a person or an organized group against people or property with the intention of intimidating or coercing societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons.
Thunderstorm: A transient storm of lightning and thunder, usually with rain and gusty winds, sometimes with hail or snow, produced by cumulonimbus clouds.
Tornado: A localized, violently destructive windstorm occurring over land, esp. in the Mid-West, and characterized by a long, funnel-shaped cloud extending toward the ground and made visible by condensation and debris.
Tsunami: Tsunamis, also known as seismic sea waves, are enormous waves caused by an underground disturbance such as an earthquake or volcanic eruption. They can move hundreds of miles per hour and hit land with waves topping 100 feet in height.
Volcano: A vent in the earth's crust through which lava, steam, ashes, etc., are expelled, either continuously or at irregular intervals.
Wildfire: Any large fire that spreads rapidly and is hard to extinguish.
Winter Storm or Extreme Cold: a severe winter condition characterized by low temperatures, strong winds, and heavy blowing snow.
Each of these threats is identified, evaluated and ranked as part of my family's written response plan.
Canadian-guerilla
02-25-2008, 09:41 PM
IMO
i think a financial/economic collapse is most likely
although a lot is happening over in the middle east right now
and there's always the " surprise " false flag
I guess I didn't answer all your questions.
Bug in or out? I'd bug in unless I was forced to evacuate. Chemical spin, meth lab, etc.
Do you think it's a matter of time: You bet. With that many possibilities something is bound to happen.
BraggSurvivor
02-25-2008, 09:51 PM
As most of you all know, I also believe a total world wide economical disaster will occur in the very near future. Could be caused by most of what Rick has posted. At the same time, I have planned as to not ever having to use my preparations, living my life without fear or reservations.
crashdive123
02-25-2008, 09:51 PM
Good question Bragg. For me it started with preparations for natural disasters. While in the Navy I helped clean up after Typhoon Pamela hit Guam, saw the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew, and had the eruption of Mt. St. Helens totally mess up an outing to Spirit Lake. Since I live in an area that is prone to weather extremes I prepared for two scenarios. Bug In (preferred) and Bug Out. The potential level of devastation will be the determining factor in what I do. Plans include securing the homestead, immediate needs and long term needs. As you point out, depending on someone or something for your survival may be disastrous.
Since I live near 3 military bases, NFL venue and large tourist destination I also plan for human initiated disasters. Food and supplies to last for a minimum of 3 to 6 months. The ability to defend my family.
My plan is constantly evolving. One of the reasons I’m here.
Bragg - One of the things folks in the U.S. underestimate are the number of nuclear reactors in the country. And they don't realize that most are approaching 30 years old. They've had a remarkable safety record but it only takes one accident. Here's a map for the nuclear reactors world wide and remember, prevailing winds in the U.S. are west to east:
http://www.insc.anl.gov/pwrmaps/map/world_map.php
Click on a dot to learn more about that reactor.
I think at last count there were 13 in Illinois that are "upwind" from me.
wareagle69
02-25-2008, 10:27 PM
i started training just in case i ever had to escape prison someday thats a true shtf scenario
i started training just in case i ever had to escape prison someday thats a true shtf scenario
You short on ammo, that is the only reason I can see for going to prison. I don't break the law so I don't fear police. If they come for me it's gonna be a long day all round.
AdventureDoc
02-26-2008, 02:29 AM
I really enjoyed rick's post and have to say there are a few on there I didn't think of. I guess that is why I am here.
Thanks for putting a list of "potential problems" out there for me to see and understand, most importantly to start thinking about.:)
dilligaf2u2
02-26-2008, 08:25 AM
The first 2 on my list to plans for are: Not Loosing my reading glasses or false teeth.
After that, it is what ever the God of your choice chooses to throw at me.
My primary concerns start with water. Then shelter. Then food. No matter what comes my way, I want those 3 covered and I do not want to stand around waiting for anyone to cover them for me.
Don
AD - Folks seem to think they can grab their BOB for any emergency and go but more likely than not that won't be the case. Kids will be in school, the better half at work or maybe even on the road somewhere. They overlook an essential element and that's a communication plan. The only time that won't be a problem is if the evacuation is preplanned such as a hurricane. The link I shared above is for a family disaster plan that includes a com. plan as well as a personal evaluation for each family member and their skill sets as well as an evaluation on your home. It's 60 pages but most of that is just plugging in your information. I keep a written plan on file at home, practice it and update it as needed. If a disaster happens while everyone is here or if they are scattered around we know where we are going and how to communicate until we are linked up again.
Take'um as they come, head on. Have always made it.
That was quite a list Richard. I'd like to point out that you left out the most important one though, and I'm more than a little disappointed!
Failure of a specific west coast mushroom crop! Hello??? talk about my nightmares coming to life....yeeesh....
Trax - I've made a secret deal with Xenu. I traded the earth for a lifetime of morels.
You fool!!! Well, canid will happy, but those are definitely not the 'shrooms I seek.
Well, this thread certainly turned out to be timely. I suppose you've all seen the news about the reactors being shut down in Florida. Now they just have to get Miami back on power.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200802261723DOWJONESDJONLINE000845_FORTUNE5.htm
What scenarios to you anticipate?
crashdive123
02-26-2008, 07:57 PM
Trust Me I am your Government, There is not DANGER.......We would never stroke you.
Well the good new that with global warming they will be just fine. A little sweaty but just fine.
Global Warming? Might want to re-think that. http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooli ng/article10866.htm
Well crap!! I just bought a ton of Bermuda shorts. You think I take them back for a refund?
ATough
02-26-2008, 08:59 PM
First of, Rick that is a very thorough List of things you prepare for.
second, I prepare for natural disasters according to my location, such as hurricane, Tornado, and flood.
mbarnatl
02-26-2008, 09:12 PM
I have a family disaster plan similar to Rick's. Each family member has a copy of it. It is updated on a regular basis. We rate the most likely scenario as well. This last summer drought, forest fires and heat related issues topped our list. This summer I am forecasting that drought, gas shortages, water shortages, forest fires and power outages to be at the top of our list. I have to consider these when we go on weekend hikes also.
I prepare more for natural disasters then I would for man made. I guess because I have been in/or evacuated from several hurricanes, tornado's, ice storms, snow storms, blackouts, floods and forest fires. I mainly prepare for wilderness survival because I am always hiking or geocaching.
Survivordude - I don't actively plan for all the events but they are part of the ranking I do to determine 1. Which skills sets I have to survive those events and 2. Which events my home is likely to survive. I then rank each event to determine which one is most likely to happen and invest my resources starting with the most likely. I doubt I'll ever have to worry about a tsunami where I live but if I don't have the skills and I'm on the beach and the water leaves...well.....I don't live downstream from a dam either but I could be visiting someplace that is.
mbarnatl
02-26-2008, 09:16 PM
@Rick: how many times do you update your list a year? I update mine every two months.
list= plan.
We review it once a quarter. I update only when something changes that warrants an update. For example, two family cell phone numbers recently changed and the document had to be updated to reflect those changes.
coldkill13
02-26-2008, 09:26 PM
You short on ammo, that is the only reason I can see for going to prison. I don't break the law so I don't fear police. If they come for me it's gonna be a long day all round.
WOW! I have been waiting fo someone to sum that up in such a clear, concise statement! Mind if I borrow that for when the topic of "Gun control" comes up around my house?
mbarnatl - Do you do practice drills or walk throughs? We try to do respond to a couple of "threats" each year to flex our plan and see what works and doesn't work. We also test our communication plan to ensure it will work if it's ever needed. We do adjust our plan based on any shortcomings we find in the test.
coldkill13
02-26-2008, 09:31 PM
Global Warming? Might want to re-think that.
Good to know theres someone else out there who doesn't believe every word some crazy ex-presidential candidate says!
mbarnatl
02-26-2008, 09:59 PM
mbarnatl - Do you do practice drills or walk through? We try to do respond to a couple of "threats" each year to flex our plan and see what works and doesn't work. We also test our communication plan to ensure it will work if it's ever needed. We do adjust our plan based on any shortcomings we find in the test.
Yes we do. I have had to go through several real threats and it amazes me how well everything falls into place. You can practice, but til you actually have to go through one do you really see what you need to do the next time. I think the one that made me think the most is when we had to evacuate because of a forest fire.
mbarnatl
02-26-2008, 10:02 PM
@Rick: How is your communication plan setup.
We have identified a local communication coordinator within the family. They are responsible for acquiring and maintaining all contact information including school, work, cells, etc. If an event happens then the coordinator will begin contacting and documenting the location of each family member. If they are unable to contact any member within two hours after onset then the coordinator declares a communication emergency. We have an out of state coordinator identified and if an emergency is declared then the out of state contact becomes the overall coordinator for the family.
One of the lessons learned from Katrina is that local communications (landline and cell) were not operable but toll was not impacted. While folks could not call locally, they could call long distance. So we have an out of state contact if we have to rely on them.
mbarnatl
02-26-2008, 10:21 PM
We had the same thing happen when I lived in Fla. during Andrew, but the toll was affected. How we contacted people out of state was with a neighbor's shortwave radio.
Angry, disenchanted, anarchist, murders, killers, robbers.............Your standard issue malcontent who will prevail in the end. I will be a measly speed bump. A Minor point of resistance. But they will survive and they will thrive.:(
Take comfort in the fact there won't be as many of them after they come to visit you.
Well crap!! I just bought a ton of Bermuda shorts. You think I take them back for a refund?
Just wear a pair into the store. Then offer to model the shorts EVERYDAY for them. They may even pay you to take them off your hands:eek::D
WOW! I have been waiting fo someone to sum that up in such a clear, concise statement! Mind if I borrow that for when the topic of "Gun control" comes up around my house?
No problem, help your self.
And remember preparedness is the difference between can of food and cannibalisim.:D
bulrush
02-27-2008, 09:54 AM
You should always be afraid if someone says "Trust me, I'm from the government."
:)
GorgeHiker
03-03-2008, 11:52 PM
I'm surprised no one mentioned zombie attack yet.
canid
03-03-2008, 11:53 PM
i get the collective rolling of eyes when i mention the zombocalypse.
Sam Reeves
06-15-2008, 11:49 AM
After this years floods an epidemic of these would cause alot of problems.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locust
How tp prepare? Lots of cheap PVC pipe to frame greenhouses with.
And a deep fryer to cook them!
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yellowcab
12-18-2025, 02:10 AM
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yellowcab
12-18-2025, 02:11 AM
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yellowcab
03-17-2026, 12:59 AM
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фото (http://habeascorpus.ru/t/1584531)Каба (http://habituate.ru/t/1403440)Стам (http://hackedbolt.ru/t/1480896)SMAS (http://hackworker.ru/t/1698969)*айд (http://hadronicannihilation.ru/t/1386077)боль (http://haemagglutinin.ru/t/1469796)Собо (http://hailsquall.ru/t/1437571)дека (http://hairysphere.ru/t/1550315)Mids (http://halforderfringe.ru/t/1528701)Numb (http://halfsiblings.ru/t/1555552)java (http://hallofresidence.ru/t/1564064)Char (http://haltstate.ru/t/1613056)Thom (http://handcoding.ru/t/1657138)Данс (http://handportedhead.ru/t/1703418)Wind (http://handradar.ru/t/1740219)
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yellowcab
03-17-2026, 01:00 AM
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yellowcab
05-27-2026, 10:58 AM
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yellowcab
05-27-2026, 11:00 AM
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