A short lesson on Hyper-inflation.

[Sourdough]

http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-on-germany-hyperinflation-2011-10

[crashdive123]

Hyper inflation has been (and is) one of my concerns. I don't dwell on it, but some of my purchases (food and supplies) have that concern in the back of my mind.

[Rick]

I'm a bit hard pressed to understand the correlation between Germany post WWI in which they had no viable infrastructure remaining, no farming of consequence and no distribution network; hence, no employment. Everything had to be imported including food and none of their war time debt was forgiven. Not only was their debt not forgiven but under the Treaty of Versailles Germany had to pay reparations to the Allies to the tune of 100,000 tons of gold. So how does that translate to today? It sounds good and makes a dandy story but it's comparing cinder blocks to dolphins.

[BScout]

Dang Rick. I read your post and thought that's exactly where we are.

[Rick]

Seriously? You're starving because there is no food. Every business has been bombed to dust. All farm animals are dead. All fields have either been turned to crater fields or trenches. I'm sorry, but if you really, truly believe that then you missed world history somewhere along the line. We have no clue what suffering is.

[Sourdough]

I think the point of the article was not that, that is the where we are now. However, it has some eerie parallels. And "Might" be where we are going, might.

[Pal334]

Have to go with Rick on this one. The comparisons just are not there, at least to the extent he is alledging. Also I am curious how this fellow can " discuss the massive cultural devastation (and loss of confidence in government) that comes with the complete disintegration of personal savings."

Doe he have any real knowledge, or just "puking Facts"taught by others who were just "puking facts"without any real knowledge.

I have become more and more leery of these "experts" in the financial world who have no "hands on" experience

[Sourdough]

He has been head of UBS NYSE floor traders for 50 years, I would say he is a very experienced.

[kyratshooter]

Seriously? You're starving because there is no food. Every business has been bombed to dust. All farm animals are dead. All fields have either been turned to crater fields or trenches. I'm sorry, but if you really, truly believe that then you missed world history somewhere along the line. We have no clue what suffering is.

The failure of our history education is showing again.

You are mixing up WW1 and WW2. There was no large scale distruction in Germany following WW1. No craters in the roads and no bombed out buildings. Their infrastructure was intact, though farming did suffer due to manpower shortages in the last year of the war. Starvation waqs due to lack of planting and diversion of what was available to the war fronts.

There was a revolution in Germany. The Kiser was overthrown. There was infighting over what system would replace it, communist, democracy or dictatorship.

The collapse of the German economy was purposely engineered by the allies at the end of WW1. They intended to distroy the nation and rule it as conquered territory.

After WW2 the Marshal Plan went into effect, no repartations were demanded and the sectors were ruled as trusts of the allies rather than superior over inferior people. We shipped millions of tons of food into Germany to prevent a repeat of the same thing happening a second time.

We also shipped millions of tons to Britian, France and Beglum. The hardest hit was Holland. They lost thousands to starvation before we could get food to them. But the handlin gof the situation was espressly planned to prevent the repeat of the political/economic situation after WW1.

[Rick]

Okay, admittedly I got carried away. No, I didn't mix the two wars. The machinery of commerce was non-existent for all practical purposes. The civilian manufacturing that was left was outdated and without skilled labor because so many men had been killed. The folks in Berlin literally ate the zoo animals. You would be hard pressed to find a dog or rat in Berlin because they were eaten, too. There was no fuel of any kind and no raw materials even if the manufacturing base would have been equipped to run.

My point was the analogy was out of context and doesn't apply to today.

And I'll have you know my history education was just fine. I graduated my MBA with a cumulative 3.814 out of 4.0. No, no. Genius is much too high of praise but I thank you just the same. That freakin stats class is to blame though.

[Pal334]

He has been head of UBS NYSE floor traders for 50 years, I would say he is a very experienced.

Then I guess I am now certain I would not trust his opinions or advice. He has participated in the farce that is a major contributor to the current financial problem.

[Rick]

This stuff is really not that difficult. It just takes a bit of research to understand the basics and then some reading each day to stay informed. I read a lot of market crash, economic disaster doom and gloom stuff because I want to understand what that side of the house is talking about. I probably read twice as much of that as I do the WSJ, Business Week and Labor stats. Yes, I even watch Glenn Beck (shudder).

Don't read stuff just because they agree with what you believe. Challenge yourself enough to study the other side. Then, instead of accepting a talking head's opinion develop your own. If you still believe in doom and gloom at least you know why you believe in it and you are in a much better position to support your beliefs. But above all, spend some time and research don't just take the position of, yeah that's what I believe too, see? I'm right.

[Rick]

I'll even go a bit further. Everyone, from the President down to me (and you know I'm about as low as you can get) looks at any subject (economics, finance, science, whatever) through a very narrow window. That window is comprised of all of our education, experience and beliefs. Our opinion is shaped by that narrow window. Obviously, the President's window is a bit larger than mine because he has advisers and support folks to help him continue his education, expand his experience and shape his beliefs. I don't have that luxury. So it's important to read all that you can about the things you don't believe in. That's the only way you can expand your window and enhance your view.

I read an article yesterday that California just passed a law prohibiting open carry. The first thing I did was look up those folks that supported the law and read why they thought it was a great idea. I already believe it's stupid so why look up those that agree with me? What would I learn from that. I want to keep my enemy close if you will.

[SARKY]

Seriously? You're starving because there is no food. Every business has been bombed to dust. All farm animals are dead. All fields have either been turned to crater fields or trenches. I'm sorry, but if you really, truly believe that then you missed world history somewhere along the line. We have no clue what suffering is.

1: our food reserves are the lowest they've ever been. On top of that corn is being turned into fuel driving up the cost of cereals and meat. Farmers are cutting the size of their herds to cut their costs.
2: As to our infrastructure, the A-Holes local, state and federal have pissed away the money that should have kept our infrastructure in good repair.
3: Our business' haven't been bombed into oblivion but outsourced overseas (same difference).

Now as to the presidents advisors(sic) just look at who they are and what their economic beliefs are.
As to California, Justice is DEAD in this state. It is now all about law (and the morons who write the laws) and the ability to control the populace.

[Rick]

How can you say our food reserves are the lowest they've ever been? We didn't even have food reserves until about 50 years ago. The only reason we've had a glut of food reserves at all is because the feds wound up with tons and tons of cheese, corn and other grains when the farm economy collapsed 30 years ago. Remember Farm Aid? Then they had to pitch in and shore up dairy prices so they got stuck with enough milk to float a battleship. They had so much they turned it into powdered milk and GAVE IT TO FARMERS FOR CATTLE FEED. That's our food reserves in this country. How short our memories are. Farmers now have the luxury of selling commodities on the open market because prices are high. Otherwise they would sell it to Uncle Sam. That's just market dynamics at work.

As to outsourcing...That's why we have Japanese car plants in Indiana.

As to the advisors, I didn't judge them I just said he had them. That's a benefit regardless.

[Winter]

This thread is interesting. I'm a simpleton when it comes to economics, but, with every alive American being 42 grand in debt, it ain't pretty. We don't manufacture steel. :idea:
Unions have destroyed industry. IMO, all you union guys can save your "Well, don't we deserve $32 an hr for a job worth $10 if we do it for 30 yrs?" Well, no, you don't cause the value of your job is still $10. No hard feelings. I love getting overpaid too when I work state jobs.

What is really interesting in the thread is that you folks who know about this crap will not respond exhaustively on your opinion, but rather, do 10 posts that are 5 times as many words. LOL

[Rick]

I'm a simpleton when it comes to economics

So are we but that doesn't stop us.

[Sourdough]

What is really interesting in the thread is that you folks who know about this crap will not respond exhaustively on your opinion, but rather, do 10 posts that are 5 times as many words. LOL

OK, I think we are headed for catastrophic hyper-inflation. And, Sadly it will be fatal for me, and I am not being dramatic. With a locked in fixed income, and hyper-inflation, I will have three choices, got to prison, die of starvation, or go rogue. I think Art Cashen is spot-on. Hyper-inflation is the only way left too kick the can down the street. I think they can milk 4 to 6 years of accelerating inflation, then it is OVER.

The good news is people will start buying Real Estate, as a hedge against hyper-inflation.

[BENESSE]

OK, I think we are headed for catastrophic hyper-inflation. And, Sadly it will be fatal for me, and I am not being dramatic. With a locked in fixed income, and hyper-inflation, I will have three choices, got to prison, die of starvation, or go rogue.

I thought you were going into a retirement home. (is that a new term for going rogue?)

[Sourdough]

I thought you were going into a retirement home. (is that a new term for going rogue?)

The retirement home is prison. Or prison is the "Prepaid" retirement home.

[natertot]

Sarsky, if you think that ethanol is jacking up corn product prices, you better look again. States with corn based ethanol pay 25-50 cents less per a gallon of fuel compared to states that don't. Also, many farmers who chose to grow for the government instead of open martket are actually being paid by the government not to grow crops. A few local farmers I personally know have nothing planted in 15-20 percent of their fields and the government pays them to do so. If the government would knock that crap off, more corn would be grown and prices would at least maintain if not decrease. JMHO

[Rick]

I wish you could understand this a bit better. Hyper inflation, the way you are thinking, can be controlled. Right now, deflation is a much larger concern. But that aside, "hyperinflation" (notice I put that in quotes) can become real through taxation. We have a great example in front of us right now with Herman Cain's 999 plan. Don't get me wrong, I support that type of rewrite to the tax code but if you are on the low end of the economic ladder then you are going to pay much, much more in taxes.

First, is the 9% tax on consumer purchases. Remember me saying a national sales tax? Tada!

Second, is the loss of all write offs and credits. So the poor who paid very little or no taxes will now have to pay taxes at 9% of their income. I've seen estimates that calculate it at 25% when the loss of tax credits are included in calculations. If you go from getting money back to paying X% that's, in essence, a form of hyperinflation but not the kind you are fearing. But make no mistake, it's coming, whether it's under the 999 name or someone elses. Increased taxation HAS to happen.

natertot - The cost of alcohol fuel is pretty outrageous if you calculate the true cost. First, it delivers less horsepower and that means fewer MPG and more fillups. We wind up using MORE gasoline with blended fuels than we would have had we not used it so we have to import more gasoline. Today the Fed gives oil companies a 45 cent PER GALLON tax break for any fuels that are blended with alcohol. It's called the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC) or more commonly The "Blenders' Credit". You can google it. That's money against the deficit and out of our pockets. Then, of course, you have to calculate in the CAFE credits that artificially boost the MPG ratings of flexible fuel vehicles. I won't even get into that but it's absolutely asinine. Just google CAFE rules. Finally, corn converted to ethanol is corn that can't be eaten at a time when millions are starving. Yet we continue to use only the corn kernel to make alcohol.

I could support switch grass or silage conversion into alcohol but I can't morally justify letting millions starve so we can drive to town.

That's the true cost of ethanol.

[Rick]

One other thing that sort of popped into the old brain. I've said this from time to time but I guess it's worth repeating. The thing that people forget is the one thing that will keep the economy propped up. Greed. Power may be a really, really close second.

If the currency were to fall to 0 the banks would not make money. They are creditors after all and they do like income. The thing that keeps them in check is the Federal Reserve. I know many of you don't like them but they do control the banks and the interest rates that are charged.

Unlike us the very rich own their assets outright. Things like homes, land, cars, boats, planes, etc. They don't have to sell gold or increase fiat to pay debt because they don't have debt. They are creditors not borrowers. Like banks, their income would fall.

Finally, hyperinflation does not just happen in major economies. It's a policy option. The fed can invoke it or control it. That might sound a bit crazy but it's true. Look at England. They've never experienced hyperinflation in their history while all the countries around them have. The reason is because the Bank of England controls monetary policy. They did create mass inflation on several occasions (inflation in the 30ish% range) but only because it was to their advantage as global creditors.

Now, I'm not saying that every country that has experienced hyperinflation did so at the behest of the controlling monetary authority. That isn't true. That would have to assume that every person that controls money in every country had the same knowledge, understanding and opinions of economics. That can't happen. But for the major economies of the world, US, Britain, Japan, China of late, etc. they do know economics and they know how to control it.

There is a lot more truth to the old men in the smoked filled parlors setting policy than fiction.....but that's my opinion.

[Sourdough]

Rick, Hyper-inflation or depression, or higher taxes. This whole blanket of economic issues is (in my opinion) way more front burner than EMP or 2012 or tsunami from a survival prospective.

[Rick]

I can't disagree with that. With economics it's what you have to deal with on a daily basis. With the nature stuff, though, it's what kills you. I see economics as an inconvenience at best. Stuff we don't want to have happen, like loss of jobs, homes, etc., but you can survive that. Especially if you've done any planning at all. Walking on the beach when the water disappears is a completely different animal.

[natertot]

"First, it delivers less horsepower and that means fewer MPG and more fillups."

From what I've noticed, the corn based fuel has a higher octane level than the gas I buy if ethanol is not available. Example: When I'm home here in Ohio, we don't have corn based fuel, so I get 87 octane. I go to Iowa where I was raised to visit family, they do have corn based fuel and it is usually in the 90-92 octane range. Iowa has 87 octane as well, but it is about 10-20 cents/gallon more than the corn based fuel. Due to higher octane, I believe, my car has not lost any power. My car also has a thingy on it that calculates fuel milage, nothing was noted on that nor did I expierence greater fill ups than when I'm in Ohio.

"Finally, corn converted to ethanol is corn that can't be eaten at a time when millions are starving."

Once again, why is the government paying farmers not to farm? Let's get some food growing in those empty fields.
Everything else that you have said, I completely agree with.

[Sourdough]

They did create mass inflation on several occasions (inflation in the 30ish% range) but only because it was to their advantage as global creditors.


This is what I expect, this what I think will develop, I think this "IS" the Fed's plan.

[Rick]

Natertot - "Another drawback for E85 is that, in a liter-to-liter comparison, E85 has less energy content han conventional gasoline; 30% percent less energy for transportation by volume."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E85

You've probably be using E10. There is still a drop but not as much as E85 obviously.

I'm in complete agreement on the Land Bank. Dumb plan.

SD - Of course it's the Fed's plan. It always has been. As I said, it's part of what builds the business cycle. That's a planned policy. Boom and bust is planned. At least to a large extent. Earlier this year the Bank of England issued a one paragraph release. It said plan on higher interest rates. People see these releases but don't READ them. The FED does the same thing. That's why the Stock Market goes up and down on the word of the chairman. Those folks understand what the fed is saying and part of what the fed says is designed to bring the market up or down because the fed knows the traders understand. It's a bit of circular logic that happens to work.

[natertot]

Natertot - "Another drawback for E85 is that, in a liter-to-liter comparison, E85 has less energy content han conventional gasoline; 30% percent less energy for transportation by volume."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E85

You've probably be using E10. There is still a drop but not as much as E85 obviously.

No, the gas I've been using they blend 10 percent ethanol with regular gasoline and achieve a 90-93 octane rating in the end. I forgot all about that E85 crap. That I agree isn't great.

[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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