A rather unpleasant assessment.

[Sourdough]

Sounds like hell to me...............http://www.survivalblog.com/2010/11/letter_re_a_veteran_policemans.html
I would hope it is not this bad, it is something I know nothing about.

[oldtrap59]

Scary isn't it.

Oldtrap

[Sourdough]

Scary isn't it.

Oldtrap


Next to burning to death, it is my worse nightmare.

[Pal334]

Any idea what he bases his assumptions on? While I don't totaly disagree with some of what he said, would just be curious where he gets his "facts" from. The title is "A Veteran Policeman's Observations ", just curious a veteran of where?

[Batch]

Pal,

That is what I was thinking. Blanket arguments with no historically sited examples.

He doesn't site a single example. "This is worse than Mogadishu".

People lie. I had a guy try to buffalo folks around that he was a Master Sergeant in the US Navy SEALs. I did not serve. But, I called that arse onto the carpet for lying about his service.

We have had catastrophic storms before. But, the press is the worst part of a storm. LOL Lying dogs.

100 cases of looting after Andrew in an area of over 4 million affected people?

I look for actual regular people reports that can document their course of action.

[BENESSE]

SD, you're probably the last person who should worry about it. If they make it unscathed that far, we all back here are truly...you know...

[Sourdough]

SD, you're probably the last person who should worry about it. If they make it unscathed that far, we all back here are truly...you know...

I guess I feel like I understand Grizzly Bears. I feel like I know when they are bluffing, and when it is a full out charge. But, if people showed up begging for help form Los Anchorage, I could be fatally snookered, or equally worse killing humans that did not need killing. I just hope I am gone before the SHTF.

[mwp]

They are still prosecuting people from Katrina. Was worse than the news put on. Not sure I would go back except for family or friends. Know that I am supposed to but the sights, sounds and smells tend to stay with you. Kinda lets you on human nature a bit. Multiply it out by a region or a nation. Kinda hard to wrap ones mind around it. Maybe God will see fit for this to pass us by. That being said I would rather have it now on my head that fully on my children and grandchildren.

[BornthatWay]

you and me too Sourdough.

[Alaskan Survivalist]

I've never been able to read one of those survivalblogs. Native Dudes posts are better.

[BENESSE]

The human element is one single thing that gives me pause when I think of various SHTF scenarios. For that, one is truly never prepared, I don't care how stocked up or fortified you are. Having a military or LE background helps but that only goes so far. As SD points out there are emotional aspects that can compound an already difficult predicament. I too hope I don't have to test my mettle the extreme way.

[oldsoldier]

Article didn't make a lot of sense to me either, ( course the TV guide confuses me LOL) But It seems to me from talking to a lot of non-preppers as well as a few preppers. The overall mentality when TSHTF for most people are to GOOD ( get out of dodge) If I had a dollar for everyone I've heard say "I'm heading for the hills, national forest, country," whatever I could buy a whole lot more land thats available next to "the retreat" then just have everybody here move on down/up/over and start a community of our own so well be okay when it hits.

IMO when it hits most of these unprepared, untrained, idgits will be to scared to go anywhwre. Again IMHO most of the hype is by the press to sell more papers or network ratings. Course what do I know?

[ClovisMan]

Well, I read somewhere that the average US household has enough food stored for 9 meals. If there is no gas or diesel to restock grocery stores, that gives ya 3 days give or take to fortify before the rioting starts. During and after the riots, the refugees fleeing the big cities will consume all natural resources in their path. Scary thought. It only took 24 hours after Katrina struck New Orleans for all hell to break loose.

Dang, I guess I need to go re-evaluate my priorities again.

[SARKY]

We (that is the general as in the USA we) are soft and so used to having it our way when we want it, that any disruption will make people irritable. Add to that how many people are on mood altering drugs things will get crazy when their drugs run out.

[Alaskan Survivalist]

I've made friends with the badest, burnt out combat vets around by sharing my knowledge with them and inturn they with me. My preps are sufficient for several families and they and thier families will be the ones protecting my food and me too. I'm the golden goose that has no problem gathering food or living off the land. These guys freak out my family up north and don't want them around and why going north is plan B.

[Old GI]

Well, I read somewhere that the average US household has enough food stored for 9 meals. If there is no gas or diesel to restock grocery stores, that gives ya 3 days give or take to fortify before the rioting starts. During and after the riots, the refugees fleeing the big cities will consume all natural resources in their path. Scary thought. It only took 24 hours after Katrina struck New Orleans for all hell to break loose.

Dang, I guess I need to go re-evaluate my priorities again.

During and after Hurricane Ivan (2004 in western FL), although the damage was similar with much less population to Katrina, we didn't have much of a problem with that kind of thing. People either evacuated or were quite prepared. As a County EM Director, I knew I wouldn't be home for days; just had a whole-home propane generator installed; it ran non-stop until about four hours before power was restored (four days +). Lessons learned from Erin and Opal in '95. Different demographics?

[Rick]

Once again......look at the worst situations that we've faced and you simply don't see any of what he's talking about.

Little Ice Age
New Madrid Earthquake
Great Chicago Fire
Depression
Dust Bowl
Alaska Tsunami and Earthquake
1974 Super Tornado Outbreak
East Coast Blackout
1999 Super Tornado Outbreak
911 Attack
New Orleans Hurricane

Pick any SHTF situation you want and none of what he said has happened. Did some bad things happen? Sure. They always will but it certainly isn't the rampaging hordes he makes it out to be. As I've said before...There are dangerous areas of the city today. I avoid them. I will avoid them post disaster as well. Predators tend to hunt within their territory, you know that.

[Winnie]

Yup, I totally agree, Rick. At the moment, the UK has lots and lots of snow(except me, dang it!), many comunities are cut off, food deliveries are not getting through and the power is intermittent, but I don't see any rioting or mobs in the streets. Once this snow melts, there's going to be an awful lot of flooding too. I doubt there'll be any rioting then either.

[Rick]

I don't understand why folks think there will be roving armies of ne'er-do-wells. If you leave where you are then you are heading off with some destination in mind. This is just my opinion but it seems to me that bad folks have an area they operate in. They operate where they feel safe. If something bad happens they aren't going to pillage their way across town for bread. They'll look in the immediate area for it. It's much easier to take it away from someone next door or across the street than it is to travel blocks or miles with no assurance they will find it.

I'm not naive enough to think that if our paths crossed I wouldn't be in extreme danger but I don't see them traveling well out of their territory to loot. If they do then I think they will have targets in mind. Warehouses, rail yards, trucking terminals, that kind of thing.

At least that's the way I see it. We are animals no less than bears or wolves and our instinct and territorial requirements are much the same. (Sorry for insulting bears and wolves).

[Sourdough]

I don't understand why folks think there will be roving armies of ne'er-do-wells. If you leave where you are then you are heading off with some destination in mind. This is just my opinion but it seems to me that bad folks have an area they operate in. They operate where they feel safe. If something bad happens they aren't going to pillage their way across town for bread. They'll look in the immediate area for it. It's much easier to take it away from someone next door or across the street than it is to travel blocks or miles with no assurance they will find it.

I'm not naive enough to think that if our paths crossed I wouldn't be in extreme danger but I don't see them traveling well out of their territory to loot. If they do then I think they will have targets in mind. Warehouses, rail yards, trucking terminals, that kind of thing.

At least that's the way I see it. We are animals no less than bears or wolves and our instinct and territorial requirements are much the same. (Sorry for insulting bears and wolves).

I have never seen a real Section 8 Housing Project, But from movies I've seen it looks like the large projects must have thousands and thousands of people living in them. Sorry, but there is just something about thousands of hungry or displaced humans that frightens me.

[kyratshooter]

the "Horde" is not headed for your area, I guarentee it. Town is easy, that is why they stay there now.

I have worked professionally on the other side of this population pool and I have different observations from the guy in the article. This guy is a cop and looks at everything from an LE standpoint, "They are going to get you."

I was a teacher and mental health counsoler and saw them from yet another perspective. We had them where we wanted them and there was nothing they could do about it. Outside the "hood" they were prone to shock when confronted with the real world.

They really see the "system" as the means of their success. The law protects them from the law abiding citizenry. They count on everyone else being scared of jail, while they look at jail as a vacation. You are scared to break the rules, they are not. that is their trump card.

I worked on a "Wilderness Program" for two years. This was "boot camp in the woods". We had some of the biggist and baddest 17-19 year old rapist and murderers that could be found in Memphis TN. I have seen these fools fighting the guards right up to the time they were dumped out of the transport van. They hit the ground, curled up in the fetal position and started crying.

They were fighting to stay in the van! No one had told them they were going to the WOODS!!! They wanted a cell, with heat, with lights, with a bunk, a cafiteria and a gym!!!

"What you mean I got to cook my food and sleep in a tent and pee in the woods? He!! something'll bite me on the $%&^!!!"

I have seen them brought into the classrooms traumatized over spending a night in the woods, in a tent, with no electric lights.

Our facility had no chain link fence, only a three strand barbed wire run around the 1000 acres. When they hit the fence they stopped. We had signs on top of each post stating there was a $1000 reward for any escapee with no questions asked about physical condition on return (dead or alive).

They were scared to death of the rural locals. "Cornfields and cul-de-sacs" were all that was outside the city limits and was a forign country to them. Usually followed by;

"Those people will kill you and the law will let them".

I had a couple threaten me. "I'll come to your house and kill you!" being the exact words in both situations.

One of their buds quiclky informed them, "He lives out here, he'll kill you and bury you in a ditch and no one will ever know!" I usually rubbed salt in the wound by adding "Yea and they'll be looking for you back home, not out here!"

We did have a couple try to escape. Rather than walk 3 miles to the state border, where they would have been safe, they each on tried to walk 200 miles on the paved roads to get "home". Both were found sitting on the roadside, worn out after a couple of miles walking.

My observations have convinced me that the "Horde" will get you if they make it out to your area, but they won't. They will loot their own area and the local territory for a couple of miles, killing mostly each other as they move about. This was the actual legacy of Katrina, the LA riots, NY blackouts, riots of the late 60s... They stayed in their own area and attacked people that entered that area; first responders, lost tourists, delivery men.

After a couple of weeks real SHTF they will be getting sick from bad water and lack of sanitation and lack of shelter. Fires will be raging by that time and the city will be lit up big time. A bunch of them are going to die real quick.

If they move in to the 'burbs and see opposition they will scoot. (Remember The Korean shopkeepers in the LA riots?) An armed neighborhood group will send them packing when their rides get shot up. (Aim at their rims that will really pee them off and will put them on foot!)

Rural areas scare them to death!

This urban criminal phsyclogy is the reason the gangs of the urban areas did not conquer the old west. Town is easy, that is why they stay there. The rural areas are hard.

It's dangerous out there!
There's no sidewalks!
There's no street lights!
The people are mean or they would live in town

:thumbs_up:

[Sourdough]

the "Horde" is not headed for your area, I guarentee it. Town is easy, that is why they stay there now.


Rural areas scare them to death!

This urban criminal phsyclogy is the reason the gangs of the urban areas did not conquer the old west. Town is easy, that is why they stay there. The rural areas are hard.

It's dangerous out there!
There's no sidewalks!
There's no street lights!
The people are mean or they would live in town

:thumbs_up:

Thanks that was helpfull, tried to give you some rep points, but I gotta spread the love.....it said. Nice post, thanks for taking the time.

[Rick]

SD, to be frank, I'm more concerned about the militia types than I am about inner city folks. And when I say inner city I'm not stereotyping. There are all races in the inner city. I'm not talking about the Michigan Militia either. (no offense to them. I'm just trying to get the mental picture across). Rather, I'm more concerned about Johny Wannabe thinking he's way too tough to take down. Those goof balls can be pretty dangerous.

I can't imagine anyone in Anchorage wandering your way. You're a long way away from there and any serious SHTF would, in itself, keep them at arms length. An earthquake serious enough to cause wide spread damage would also damage the road system. A volcano would lay down ash. If you think through the scenarios there's not a lot of ways for them to get over to you. 1 if by land, 2 if by sea might apply :0)

[beetlejuicex3]

Kyra's got it right. Most of the lower Socioeconomic folks in section 8 housing do not have the desire or know-how to travel on foot effectively into "the country" for any reason. I had friend who worked as a counselor for incarcerated juveniles in central Texas after college. The facility was 15 miles out of town in the woods down a 4 mile dirt road. They had lots of runners but no one made it off the dirt road and no one spent a night in the woods - they all turned themselves in to a house or went back to the facility.

I would think middle and upper class ne'er-do-wells would be the real threat.

The other irony I foresee is that after an initial period of turmoil, I would suspect most folks will be moving TO the city in search of resources and help.

[BENESSE]

If the scenario in "One Second Later" holds any plausibility, then the first places to get help/aid will be coastal cities because they're easier to get to, and as GB said, have more resources and infrastructure in place.
At least that's what I'm hoping.

[klickitat]

I have another take on this.

The most scary people I know are the locals.

I know survivalists who brag about going pirate when shtf. Guess who get's shot on sight.

Gangs are the ones who I am worried about. Not inner city gangs but those who band together who are some what prepared, but not prepared enough for the long haul. People who allow all kinds of friends and family to bunk up with them and quickly run out of supplies. These are the groups who will be dangerous. They will be armed, know the local area and in numbers. They will get desperate and with those #'s they will try to control area for security and sooner or later they will try to get supplies in any way they can. Depending on how desperate the situation for the group and their moral character, depends on how they will interact with others.

I think the closer you are to population centers the more fighting there will be for precious resources. Remember that there is a lot of people between urban centers and suburbia and the people you need to worry about are the ones closer to you than the ones further away. Remember though the one's have a little and who's group is growing is the going the most dangerous no matter where you are at.

Build your own core group now with rules. Have a way out of that group if it falls apart and have a safe place to go if your position is untenable.

BTW: I enjoyed the article, but only for the narrow insight and not as a broad doctrine.

[yellowcab]

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[yellowcab]

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heavydutymetalcutting.ru (http://heavydutymetalcutting.ru)jacketedwall.ru (http://jacketedwall.ru)japanesecedar.ru (http://japanesecedar.ru)jibtypecrane.ru (http://jibtypecrane.ru)jobabandonment.ru (http://jobabandonment.ru)jobstress.ru (http://jobstress.ru)jogformation.ru (http://jogformation.ru)jointcapsule.ru (http://jointcapsule.ru)jointsealingmaterial.ru (http://jointsealingmaterial.ru)journallubricator.ru (http://journallubricator.ru)juicecatcher.ru (http://juicecatcher.ru)junctionofchannels.ru (http://junctionofchannels.ru)justiciablehomicide.ru (http://justiciablehomicide.ru)juxtapositiontwin.ru (http://juxtapositiontwin.ru)kaposidisease.ru (http://kaposidisease.ru)
keepagoodoffing.ru (http://keepagoodoffing.ru)keepsmthinhand.ru (http://keepsmthinhand.ru)kentishglory.ru (http://kentishglory.ru)kerbweight.ru (http://kerbweight.ru)kerrrotation.ru (http://kerrrotation.ru)keymanassurance.ru (http://keymanassurance.ru)keyserum.ru (http://keyserum.ru)kickplate.ru (http://kickplate.ru)killthefattedcalf.ru (http://killthefattedcalf.ru)kilowattsecond.ru (http://kilowattsecond.ru)kingweakfish.ru (http://kingweakfish.ru)kinozones.ru (http://kinozones.ru)kleinbottle.ru (http://kleinbottle.ru)kneejoint.ru (http://kneejoint.ru)knifesethouse.ru (http://knifesethouse.ru)
knockonatom.ru (http://knockonatom.ru)knowledgestate.ru (http://knowledgestate.ru)kondoferromagnet.ru (http://kondoferromagnet.ru)labeledgraph.ru (http://labeledgraph.ru)laborracket.ru (http://laborracket.ru)labourearnings.ru (http://labourearnings.ru)labourleasing.ru (http://labourleasing.ru)laburnumtree.ru (http://laburnumtree.ru)lacingcourse.ru (http://lacingcourse.ru)lacrimalpoint.ru (http://lacrimalpoint.ru)lactogenicfactor.ru (http://lactogenicfactor.ru)lacunarycoefficient.ru (http://lacunarycoefficient.ru)ladletreatediron.ru (http://ladletreatediron.ru)laggingload.ru (http://laggingload.ru)laissezaller.ru (http://laissezaller.ru)
lambdatransition.ru (http://lambdatransition.ru)laminatedmaterial.ru (http://laminatedmaterial.ru)lammasshoot.ru (http://lammasshoot.ru)lamphouse.ru (http://lamphouse.ru)lancecorporal.ru (http://lancecorporal.ru)lancingdie.ru (http://lancingdie.ru)landingdoor.ru (http://landingdoor.ru)landmarksensor.ru (http://landmarksensor.ru)landreform.ru (http://landreform.ru)landuseratio.ru (http://landuseratio.ru)languagelaboratory.ru (http://languagelaboratory.ru)largeheart.ru (http://largeheart.ru)lasercalibration.ru (http://lasercalibration.ru)laserlens.ru (http://laserlens.ru)laserpulse.ru (http://laserpulse.ru)

[yellowcab]

laterevent.ru (http://laterevent.ru)latrinesergeant.ru (http://latrinesergeant.ru)layabout.ru (http://layabout.ru)leadcoating.ru (http://leadcoating.ru)leadingfirm.ru (http://leadingfirm.ru)learningcurve.ru (http://learningcurve.ru)leaveword.ru (http://leaveword.ru)machinesensible.ru (http://machinesensible.ru)magneticequator.ru (http://magneticequator.ru)magnetotelluricfield.ru (http://magnetotelluricfield.ru)mailinghouse.ru (http://mailinghouse.ru)majorconcern.ru (http://majorconcern.ru)mammasdarling.ru (http://mammasdarling.ru)managerialstaff.ru (http://managerialstaff.ru)manipulatinghand.ru (http://manipulatinghand.ru)
manualchoke.ru (http://manualchoke.ru)medinfobooks.ru (http://medinfobooks.ru)mp3lists.ru (http://mp3lists.ru)nameresolution.ru (http://nameresolution.ru)naphtheneseries.ru (http://naphtheneseries.ru)narrowmouthed.ru (http://narrowmouthed.ru)nationalcensus.ru (http://nationalcensus.ru)naturalfunctor.ru (http://naturalfunctor.ru)navelseed.ru (http://navelseed.ru)neatplaster.ru (http://neatplaster.ru)necroticcaries.ru (http://necroticcaries.ru)negativefibration.ru (http://negativefibration.ru)neighbouringrights.ru (http://neighbouringrights.ru)objectmodule.ru (http://objectmodule.ru)observationballoon.ru (http://observationballoon.ru)
obstructivepatent.ru (http://obstructivepatent.ru)oceanmining.ru (http://oceanmining.ru)octupolephonon.ru (http://octupolephonon.ru)offlinesystem.ru (http://offlinesystem.ru)offsetholder.ru (http://offsetholder.ru)olibanumresinoid.ru (http://olibanumresinoid.ru)onesticket.ru (http://onesticket.ru)packedspheres.ru (http://packedspheres.ru)pagingterminal.ru (http://pagingterminal.ru)palatinebones.ru (http://palatinebones.ru)palmberry.ru (http://palmberry.ru)papercoating.ru (http://papercoating.ru)paraconvexgroup.ru (http://paraconvexgroup.ru)parasolmonoplane.ru (http://parasolmonoplane.ru)parkingbrake.ru (http://parkingbrake.ru)
partfamily.ru (http://partfamily.ru)partialmajorant.ru (http://partialmajorant.ru)quadrupleworm.ru (http://quadrupleworm.ru)qualitybooster.ru (http://qualitybooster.ru)quasimoney.ru (http://quasimoney.ru)quenchedspark.ru (http://quenchedspark.ru)quodrecuperet.ru (http://quodrecuperet.ru)rabbetledge.ru (http://rabbetledge.ru)radialchaser.ru (http://radialchaser.ru)radiationestimator.ru (http://radiationestimator.ru)railwaybridge.ru (http://railwaybridge.ru)randomcoloration.ru (http://randomcoloration.ru)rapidgrowth.ru (http://rapidgrowth.ru)rattlesnakemaster.ru (http://rattlesnakemaster.ru)reachthroughregion.ru (http://reachthroughregion.ru)
readingmagnifier.ru (http://readingmagnifier.ru)rearchain.ru (http://rearchain.ru)recessioncone.ru (http://recessioncone.ru)recordedassignment.ru (http://recordedassignment.ru)rectifiersubstation.ru (http://rectifiersubstation.ru)redemptionvalue.ru (http://redemptionvalue.ru)reducingflange.ru (http://reducingflange.ru)referenceantigen.ru (http://referenceantigen.ru)regeneratedprotein.ru (http://regeneratedprotein.ru)reinvestmentplan.ru (http://reinvestmentplan.ru)safedrilling.ru (http://safedrilling.ru)sagprofile.ru (http://sagprofile.ru)salestypelease.ru (http://salestypelease.ru)samplinginterval.ru (http://samplinginterval.ru)satellitehydrology.ru (http://satellitehydrology.ru)
scarcecommodity.ru (http://scarcecommodity.ru)scrapermat.ru (http://scrapermat.ru)screwingunit.ru (http://screwingunit.ru)seawaterpump.ru (http://seawaterpump.ru)secondaryblock.ru (http://secondaryblock.ru)secularclergy.ru (http://secularclergy.ru)seismicefficiency.ru (http://seismicefficiency.ru)selectivediffuser.ru (http://selectivediffuser.ru)semiasphalticflux.ru (http://semiasphalticflux.ru)semifinishmachining.ru (http://semifinishmachining.ru)spicetrade.ru (http://spicetrade.ru)spysale.ru (http://spysale.ru)stungun.ru (http://stungun.ru)tacticaldiameter.ru (http://tacticaldiameter.ru)tailstockcenter.ru (http://tailstockcenter.ru)
tamecurve.ru (http://tamecurve.ru)tapecorrection.ru (http://tapecorrection.ru)tappingchuck.ru (http://tappingchuck.ru)taskreasoning.ru (http://taskreasoning.ru)technicalgrade.ru (http://technicalgrade.ru)telangiectaticlipoma.ru (http://telangiectaticlipoma.ru)telescopicdamper.ru (http://telescopicdamper.ru)temperateclimate.ru (http://temperateclimate.ru)temperedmeasure.ru (http://temperedmeasure.ru)tenementbuilding.ru (http://tenementbuilding.ru)tuchkas (http://tuchkas.ru/)ultramaficrock.ru (http://ultramaficrock.ru)ultraviolettesting.ru (http://ultraviolettesting.ru)