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View Full Version : LONG Term 30 years 80 years "SHTF", you ready?



Sourdough
03-17-2010, 10:53 PM
What about SHTF that lasted for more than 3 months, longer than 6 months. What if it was never ever close to what it is now. We think in terms of temporary hardship, and lots of humanity coming to help us.

What if it lasted for generations. What could you do, what have you done.

I have enough clothing and boots, gloves, hats, etc. to last the rest of my life. I would most likely die of other short comings, like I should have two more back-up wood stoves, and metal chimneys. 30 spare chain loops, for the chainsaws.

Assumptions have always interested me. What have I forgotten, not for 30 days, but for 30 YEARS. Hydraulic fluid for the log splitter, Bow saw blades, fuel filters for the dozer. Why do we assume an arbitrary number of days. Why not have more of everything. What will cause you and your family to die...? Why do we draw a line and say, OK I am prepared.

crashdive123
03-17-2010, 11:06 PM
That certainly is an interesting question and one that I will have to give some serious thought to. I believe that the next serious, wide spread crisis that we are going to see is hyperinflation. The more that we can store and stock up on now - the easier we will be able to weather that storm. This is something that I have been thinking about, although not quite in the terms that you have presented. I want to explore this more - but - bed time right now. Thanks for the thought provoking question. I'll either sleep like a baby or have nightmares..........I'm guessing the former.

welderguy
03-17-2010, 11:11 PM
I'm never prepared enough, if I have 10 spark plugs for my generator I want 10 more , I never have enough stuff , equipment, gear, The list goes on and on.

Alaskan Survivalist
03-17-2010, 11:19 PM
Your premise is wrong in regards to myself. I am a hard core doomer that see's it all going down the crapper. I have seen nothing but a continious decline all my life and no sign it will reverse coarse. The SHTF for more people each day and will continue. More people will be dividing less from here on out.

P.S. What is happening is what is most likely to happen.

pocomoonskyeyes
03-17-2010, 11:38 PM
If I am understanding the question correctly..... It wouldn't matter how much stuff you had stockpiled for the new age machines..... Fuel won't last that long. In that case the more "Basics" in tools and transportation, the better your chances. I mean if that is the choice that it is going down the drain and not coming back up. WOOD burning stove, Mules or oxen etc. and plows, Brace and Bits,Hand saws of all types, Hand operated Grain mill....... Stuff like that.

Just my 2

rwc1969
03-18-2010, 12:18 AM
Hard to say! It would all depend on the scenario. But, I don't think stockpiling is a long term answer. The only feasible long term answer, regardless if the shtf or not, is to be more self reliant and less reliant on the modern era.

If we weren't so reliant on money, the things it can buy, and modern comforts we would elimate many SHTF scenarios from ever occuring in the first place.

The shtf hard for my grandparent's and to some extent my parent's generations. But, they weren't solely reliant on our modern system, and hardly noticed the effects the depression had on our modern society and those who relied heavily upon it.

your_comforting_company
03-18-2010, 12:35 AM
ehem.. I propose the primitive aspect for sustaining myself. My preps are all supposing that any SHTF will last more than a few months. a few months of hardship ain't squat.. Every time I think about it I go back to the Great Depression. I hate to even think how many people starved to death, just because they didn't know stuff they could eat, or froze to death because they didn't have enough clothes. Whats the real question here?

We are more likely to die from sickness and disease, or the S actually hitting the fan in a cataclysmic way (you know it is never distributed evenly...), than from any other means. I say this because I live in a Perpetual Garden of Eden. There is no reason the land couldn't sustain myself and my family. Nature's bounty is all around us all year long here.

Aeons passed with civilized (that's right, NOT savages) societies based on simple hunting / gathering economics. Rocks were money. Seeds were money. Fish were money. When was the last time you tried to eat a Jackson? really needs some peppersauce...

show me the coin used to pay the tax. Whose face is on this coin? And whose inscription? "Ceasar's". Give to ceasar what is ceasars, and to God what is God's

My question, is where are you gonna get gas and oil for your chaisaws in 3 years if all the stores closed today? Then what good are those 30 chains for your saw? Do you know how to fell a tree without a chainsaw? Do you really need to fell a tree and cut it into measured lengths and split it into perfect wedges?

I find alternative and more primitive (read "basic") means to the same ends. That's how I'm preparing. What you are proposing is the situation I see coming. I'm with AlaskanSurvivalist on this one.

Sourdough
03-18-2010, 12:40 AM
Every one of you guys is on the right track for this thread. This could be a good thread. We think in terms of problems that last for days or maybe months. What if it is 3 years, or 16 years. Those who have children, what happens when they out grow their shoes, coats, etc. I think people who have children have to really look at what if.

I am good for the first year, but I don't think I could do two back to back winters if the SHTF big time. What interests me, is finding the one thing I forgot. I have two spare wood stoves, but only one extra chimney. Saw blades, files. What will be your "Waterloo". We concentrate on food, clothing , shelter, fire, water. But we need so much more. Nails, do you have 50# of number eight commons, and 50# of 16d coated nails. What did you forget

Ken
03-18-2010, 06:49 AM
I've thought about this before. What happens if the SHTF long-term due to a cataclysmic event, the drying up of basis resources, or societal collapse.

The bottom line is, over the decades and centuries, we've experienced dramatic improvements in factors such as health care, public health/food/water safety, work place safety, food supply and distribution - the list goes on.

If we digress in one or more of those factors, the answer is quite simple. People will begin to die at an earlier age, although perhaps still older than at comparable stages of development (digression) over history, simply because we have also accumulated knowledge as we've gone along. There will be some exceptions to this general outlook, but I suspect that there won't be many exceptions, even for the "most prepared."

Nonetheless, if you think far enough back, even the most wealthy, those who had ample resources available to them at that time, still died at a much earlier age than even our least fortunate "social classes" do today.

It is what it is and we ain't gonna' change it.


"Life expectancy from birth is a frequently utilized and analyzed component of demographic data for the countries of the world. It represents the average life span of a newborn and is an indicator of the overall health of a country. Life expectancy can fall due to problems like famine, war, disease and poor health. Improvements in health and welfare increase life expectancy. The higher the life expectancy, the better shape a country is in.
................................

During the Roman Empire, Romans had a approximate life expectancy of 22 to 25 years. In 1900, the world life expectancy was approximately 30 years and in 1985 it was about 62 years, just two years short of today's life expectancy."

http://geography.about.com/od/populationgeography/a/lifeexpectancy.htm


"The average life expectancy in Colonial America was under 25 years in the Virginia colony, and in New England about 40% of children failed to reach adulthood. During the Industrial Revolution, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically. The percentage of children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730-1749 to 31.8% in 1810-1829."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

Here's a detailed report on life expectancy:


U.S. Life Expectancy in the United States
Source: For data through 2002, the Congressional Research Service (CRS)


http://aging.senate.gov/crs/aging1.pdf

Pal334
03-18-2010, 06:59 AM
My guess is that the "material things" , chain saws, generators, etc will not be as important for the "Long haul". As Nell said, the gas would be gone, manufacturing capacity would be greatly diminished. I am concentrating on gaining knowledge, learning skills that I can use and pass on to others (kids, grand kids etc). Obviously I am making appropriate short term arrangements ( foods , equipment etc). But knowledge and skills will be what is needed for the long term.

Rick
03-18-2010, 07:03 AM
There are few historical references to assume something so long term will happen. And the desire to rebuild, if it did, would be overwhelming. That would be driven by simple, basic, human greed. And the other question is why would I pour my resources into a scenario that is far less likely to occur than some short term weather related event?

Let's face it, if something like that were to happen our 80+ year life span would evaporate into the historical 30+ year life span in short order. Think about your own life for a moment. How many opportunities have you had to die but the medical community intervened? My guess is, on average, one or two per person. I know I've certainly been down that road. Without proper medical intervention your life won't last very long. Besides, given my age, lasting 30 years is pretty remote.

preachtheWORD
03-18-2010, 03:23 PM
+1 to ycc's post

If "preparation" means that you have enough supplies and equipment stockpiled to outlast a 30+ year crisis, then I am definitely not prepared, not in the least. If that is what preparation means, then I will probably never be prepared. I simply do not have the $$$ to stockpile a lot of stuff. Shoot, I don't even have the $$$ to buy the things I need right now.

However, if "preparation" means having the skills and knowledge to make do without much in the way of supplies or equipment, then I am on my way. Rather than invest myself in a lot of "things", I chose to invest myself in in a lot of "skills."

I don't think I could make it 30 years on the skills I have now. Maybe a year - maybe. But that is a heck of a lot longer than I could make it on the supplies and equipment in my house.

Tripwire
03-18-2010, 03:43 PM
I have food thats good for 5-7 years. I dont know If I'll last that long.

Sourdough
03-18-2010, 03:44 PM
I guess my inquire had more to do with children, for those who have children. And compelling them to learn skills, even at a young age (for me 5 years old) children can be working on the farm. Also if I had children, and had access to used/free children's clothing, I would forward plan (hoard) to have clothing for children as they out grow existing. When I was young, we got one pair of sneakers per year, and one pair of school shoes per year, the skill I learned is the make it last, proper care and maintenance, save old shoes so parts of same could be used to insert into the current shoes to cover the warn out hole in the bottom. Now day it is daddy I need $19.95 for new shoes.

your_comforting_company
03-18-2010, 03:53 PM
PTW. I love you, man!
and Amen!

My wife did some research a while back about causes of death 50 years ago. It was probably because there weren't such sophisticated studies of different diseases, etc, but people used to die from simple things such as tonsilitis, earache, fever, and pneumonia. Heck, I know people (knew) who have died from pneumonia recently WITH medical intervention. One of which was a close relative.
Life expectancy will drop significantly, sure. 300 years ago a man who lived to be 60 was considered an ELDER. What's retirement age? For all my grandad's savings, he didn't live long enough to enjoy them, or even retire.
Heck, I doubt I'll live that long even if nothing happens. If you can afford to stockpile the things you think you'll need, you're better off than I am. Like PTW, I'm having a hard time meeting my needs NOW, I can only hope for a more simplistic life where daily survival is based on the willpower to do what needs to be done, and the knowledge of how to accomplish said goal without modern resources.

your_comforting_company
03-18-2010, 03:54 PM
Now day it is daddy I need $19.95 for new shoes.

you mean $119.95, right?
:smash:

trax
03-18-2010, 04:04 PM
Well, I think for a post-cataclysmic event, which I've personally always thought would take years, not days or weeks to "recover" from, future generations would learn to adapt according to what their parents teach them. Kind of like all generations have since the beginning of time (give or take), so it's really going to be up to the 1st generation that faces whatever the event is, to brace themselves.

In terms of what some others have posted here, there certainly seems to be a steady decline in a lot of things that we cherish that hopefully is leading people to teach their children accordingly. What I've seen decline: ability to deal with less and basic human values, among other things. Just couple those two with the potential hyper-inflation that Crash mentioned and you've got a trend rapidly accelerating into a crisis. But again, it's up to those first facing it to adjust to a new paradigm rather than just bury their heads in the sand.

Pal334
03-18-2010, 04:42 PM
"I am concentrating on gaining knowledge, learning skills that I can use and pass on to others (kids, grand kids etc). "
I think Sourdough is on the right track. Preparing the young ones with some basic skills and knowledge that their "peers" dont have will go a long way to help them survive

mountain mama
03-18-2010, 04:44 PM
I have a fool-proof long term plan.....I'm going to Alaska to stay with Sourdough :D

BENESSE
03-18-2010, 04:50 PM
To me, quality of life is ultimately more important than "quantity".
If I had to seriously alter my way of life in constant preparation of every unforeseen calamity no matter how remote, it's not the kind of day-to-day living I would enjoy very much.
It's preparing to survive vs. living.
So given my resources, I try to strike a balance in all things that matter to me.

For some of you who are already closer to that way of life it's not a huge stretch.
You are merely fine-tuning your resources/skills but are not reinventing the wheel. I wonder how willing you'd be to make drastic changes in your life in order to survive longer. I'll bet not many.
And I'll go even further to stipulate that people like Sourdough or ycc would rather live shorter lives and stay where they are than move to NYC and add 10 years--if that was their only option.

Somehow in all these doomsday preparations, the word happiness doesn't often come up.

Rick
03-18-2010, 04:52 PM
Passing survival skills on to our kids should be standard fare. At least for me it is. It's one of the reasons I got back into the "game". Having the knowledge to find edible plants or to know how to change a tire or how to fix a meal are import skill sets even outside of survival.

Sourdough
03-18-2010, 04:56 PM
And I'll go even further to stipulate that people like Sourdough or ycc would rather live shorter lives and stay where they are than move to NYC and add 10 years--if that was their only option.


Lady you got that CORRECT. I visited NYC in 1958 and it was clearly no place for a young cow milker.

doug1980
03-18-2010, 05:00 PM
I thought TSHTF already. You mean it may get worse? Nope not ready for that, but then again I don't fear death so, whatever.

BENESSE
03-18-2010, 05:01 PM
Passing survival skills on to our kids should be standard fare. At least for me it is. It's one of the reasons I got back into the "game". Having the knowledge to find edible plants or to know how to change a tire or how to fix a meal are import skill sets even outside of survival.

Couldn't agree more.
That's just common sense. Just like being fiscally responsible and maintaining a healthy lifestyle. Equally important skills to pass on to our kids.

trax
03-19-2010, 12:24 PM
.......Somehow in all these doomsday preparations, the word happiness doesn't often come up.

Good point BENESSE, I for one wouldn't want to live in any major urban area, I would ifI had to, but....yech.

BENESSE
03-19-2010, 01:06 PM
We all make calculated compromises in everything we do--some big, some small, but compromises nonetheless.
The lucky ones realize early on what makes them happy and hopefully down the road they can look back and have fewer regrets.
But they will have regrets whether they want to admit it or not. Don't think there's an honest person out there who hasn't wished for a do-over in something or other.

Durtyoleman
03-22-2010, 06:37 AM
self sufficiency/ sustainability. These are the watch-words in my survival preps. I want to be able to manufacture as much as I can.

DOM

Mountaintrekker
03-23-2010, 02:09 AM
This is what I'm prepping for, we'll save the how and why I came to this conclusion for another time. I'm looking at stocking a few things like getting a nice crosscut timber saw and the correct tools to set the teeth and keep them sharp. I'm also aquiring some basic hand tools to help with expediting construction of a cabin, shelter etc. Antique braces and bit I've refurbed, hand and jackplanes, curved carving knives etc. I'm trying not to go overboard, but the importance of metal cannot go unheard in a situation like this.
My wife and I have been studying up on Algebra and Geometry and stocking up a few books on mathmatics as this is a difficult subject for many, but very essential to correctly make and do so many things. I need to practice more primitive skills and use them in my everyday life. The mind is the greatest tool as most of us know!

Mountaintrekker
03-23-2010, 05:27 AM
Thanks sjj! I was able to get a Wetterlings hunting ax for a good price a couple of years ago and have yet to really use it like it is meant to be used, hopefully soon! An ax like you mentioned would be a fine tool indeed.
I also purchased a very nice new German straight razor and all the sharpening gear, now if I only had the guts to try it! :) I should also mention that most of these tools fit in my go bag. I also have a Two Cherries draw knife which I used to peel logs for our old cabin in Colorado and it's in fine shape and finally showing some character. Really takes an edge!
So, I'm gearing up for who knows what, I've been flat broke without much several times in my life and I have learned from all of them. I now have a lovely wife who shares my passion for the outdoors (almost as much as me) and I have her I have to provide for as well. I vowed long ago I would never be dependant on some one else for my basic necessities if I can help it. If we lost all sources of income tomorrow, we would be in pretty decent shape to live in the wilds almost anywhere for quite some time.

TucsonMax
03-28-2010, 10:59 PM
I guess my inquire had more to do with children, for those who have children.

Sourdough, let me give you a different point-of-view, from someone w/ 2 grade-school kids who doesn't live "all alone in a cabin, on a lonely mountain, next to a very HAPPY Creek." There are literally 1,000+ homes within 1 hr walking distance from my house. Hundreds of them have kids at all ages. Now, I hate to think this, let-alone write it, but if it's really TEOTWAWKI, most of those people, my neighbors, won't survive Year 1. So, my kids (who will survive) will wear their shoes, clothes etc.

As far as survival education, they are learning to farm (we planted 12 varieties of vegetables just this AM) and make due with less when necessary. They know we store supplies "in case of emergency" (like no power.) And my daughter suggested we play a game - try to go one entire weekend w/o electricity. My wife and I working on that. They know where every fruit tree in the neighborhood is located and we play "spot the water source", etc.

your_comforting_company
03-29-2010, 05:54 AM
I have to agree with Max. My whole family, grandma included, play "spot the resource" games. Not many people look around them and see potential in something as simple as a fallen limb. Which I think is a really good example of peoples wastefulness. When we pick up limbs out of the yard to cut the grass or what have you, I have them piled out next to our fire ring. NOT in a "burn pile" that will all go up in one quick fire. I don't buy charcoal for cooking.
A fallen limb offers kindling all the way up to medium fire-wood. A magnolia tree sheds leaves that will hold rainwater. I like to ask whoever is with me, "What could you use that for" and just see what they say. sometimes they say things I hadn't even though of. Kids can be creative like that and my daughter at one time or another, has even seen simple things like toys in the most mundane of debris.
theres a little happiness to go in the thread. toys and games :D

Alaskan Survivalist
03-29-2010, 12:34 PM
The quality of survival in my life has been about having options. I think it a mistake to limit your options. Primitive survival to me is like being prepared to be unprepared. It is lowest level of survival and there are many levels between here and there that should be prepared for also. Note the use of the word also. It is ALL important to me. I think it important to get ahead of disaster and have a fall back position before loosing everything. I'm preparing to let things go systematically maintaining the best life possible. When people loose there home it is more likely they will move into thier car than live in a debris hut out in the woods. Last summer I set my car up for camping and is incredibly comfortable. Should I loose my car I would be down to my kayak that can still carry more than I ever ever could. Then a backpack that has gear seperated into a progresssion of kits that will eventually get down to a 6 pound kit. I prepare to stabilize my life at the highest level possible. I could retire but now I have a very secure job, but should I loose it then I would have unemployment and only after that would I draw retirement and I have options of making money out of my home and then growing and catching my own food. There is no greater security than having options. Don't back yourself into an all or nothing situation.

BENESSE
03-29-2010, 03:02 PM
The quality of survival in my life has been about having options. I think it a mistake to limit your options. Primitive survival to me is like being prepared to be unprepared. It is lowest level of survival and there are many levels between here and there that should be prepared for also. Note the use of the word also. It is ALL important to me. I think it important to get ahead of disaster and have a fall back position before loosing everything. I'm preparing to let things go systematically maintaining the best life possible. When people loose there home it is more likely they will move into thier car than live in a debris hut out in the woods. Last summer I set my car up for camping and is incredibly comfortable. Should I loose my car I would be down to my kayak that can still carry more than I ever ever could. Then a backpack that has gear seperated into a progresssion of kits that will eventually get down to a 6 pound kit. I prepare to stabilize my life at the highest level possible. I could retire but now I have a very secure job, but should I loose it then I would have unemployment and only after that would I draw retirement and I have options of making money out of my home and then growing and catching my own food. There is no greater security than having options. Don't back yourself into an all or nothing situation.

Words to live by, AS!

hunter63
03-29-2010, 05:42 PM
Words to live by, AS!

Agreed, +1, AS, it's nice to know HOW, even if you don't NEED to.

Batch
03-29-2010, 06:31 PM
I don't think we will lose all of the technology we have now.

I mean how do we lose the knowledge we have to do these things? Don't you think folks will band together again? Its what they have always done unless they wanted to be alone.

Even self reliant folks went to town or rendezvous. Natives traveled to trade.

Do you really think that we would be back in the stone age?

So how far back will we go?

By fuel being gone I assume we refer to gasoline. Most gasoline motors can be made to run alternative fuels.

What about the fuels from before diesel and gasoline. Could a steam engine run your generator? Wind? Water?

You might have to bug from tyranny or disease. But, from a historical perspective neither lasts much more than two to five years.

What are we running from?

I agree with being able to make do with what you have in your natural environment. But, we are not going back to hunter gatherer by any stretch. We have too much knowledge.

Rick
03-29-2010, 08:20 PM
I completely concur, Batch. I suppose if Old Faithful became a super volcano and 6 people were left on the planet. But short of that, folks want to get back to where they were and will migrate toward that at their earliest convenience.

TucsonMax
03-29-2010, 08:25 PM
...folks want to get back to where they were and will migrate toward that at their earliest convenience.

I agree, I'm going home! Unless I'm in Indiana and then I'm going to Rick's house.

Rick
03-29-2010, 11:29 PM
Hey, stop on by. Hopefully that second Mosin will be here and we can take turns holdin' a gun on each other and forcing the other guy to drink.

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Dash (http://knockonatom.ru/t/1230081)учит (http://knowledgestate.ru/t/1242200)Zone (http://kondoferromagnet.ru/t/1548910)Епис (http://labeledgraph.ru/t/1373446)Myse (http://laborracket.ru/t/1529431)Zone (http://labourearnings.ru/t/1549173)Zone (http://labourleasing.ru/t/1548857)Zone (http://laburnumtree.ru/t/1191228)Zone (http://lacingcourse.ru/t/1189861)Zone (http://lacrimalpoint.ru/t/1189545)Лари (http://lactogenicfactor.ru/t/1302447)Zone (http://lacunarycoefficient.ru/t/1194319)Zone (http://ladletreatediron.ru/t/1192601)Zone (http://laggingload.ru/t/1190885)Zone (http://laissezaller.ru/t/1192545)
Zone (http://lambdatransition.ru/t/1192626)Zone (http://laminatedmaterial.ru/t/1194327)Прок (http://lammasshoot.ru/t/1350767)Zone (http://lamphouse.ru/t/1185721)Zone (http://lancecorporal.ru/t/1185682)Zone (http://lancingdie.ru/t/1187108)Zone (http://landingdoor.ru/t/1189682)Jimm (http://landmarksensor.ru/t/1554024)Zone (http://landreform.ru/t/1187552)фиан (http://landuseratio.ru/t/1185919)Agai (http://languagelaboratory.ru/t/1205089)хоро (http://largeheart.ru/shop/1161868)собы (http://lasercalibration.ru/shop/1434327)SVGA (http://laserlens.ru/lase_zakaz/1136)роск (http://laserpulse.ru/shop/591025)

yellowcab
09-21-2025, 06:20 AM
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yellowcab
12-03-2025, 02:44 PM
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yellowcab
12-03-2025, 02:45 PM
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yellowcab
03-03-2026, 04:07 PM
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Alex (http://knockonatom.ru/t/1496814)Голь (http://knowledgestate.ru/t/1566273)Zone (http://kondoferromagnet.ru/t/1549781)Zone (http://labeledgraph.ru/t/1548580)Hawk (http://laborracket.ru/t/1712835)Feve (http://labourearnings.ru/t/1950550)Zone (http://labourleasing.ru/t/1549683)Чатт (http://laburnumtree.ru/t/1328885)угол (http://lacingcourse.ru/t/1386792)Visi (http://lacrimalpoint.ru/t/1652986)Мали (http://lactogenicfactor.ru/t/1611964)Кисе (http://lacunarycoefficient.ru/t/1350918)Зерн (http://ladletreatediron.ru/t/1226397)Котл (http://laggingload.ru/t/1346696)авто (http://laissezaller.ru/t/1349385)
Коже (http://lambdatransition.ru/t/1353136)Бело (http://laminatedmaterial.ru/t/1611345)Zone (http://lammasshoot.ru/t/1783911)Жура (http://lamphouse.ru/t/1354550)Влад (http://lancecorporal.ru/t/1250076)Альб (http://lancingdie.ru/t/1230964)Тайв (http://landingdoor.ru/t/1244737)Zone (http://landmarksensor.ru/t/1711712)орга (http://landreform.ru/t/1357199)завх (http://landuseratio.ru/t/1307306)Jewe (http://languagelaboratory.ru/t/1432700)прои (http://largeheart.ru/shop/1162227)хоро (http://lasercalibration.ru/shop/1536746)Audi (http://laserlens.ru/lase_zakaz/1333)Soli (http://laserpulse.ru/shop/591264)

yellowcab
03-03-2026, 04:08 PM
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