bug out in the bush, why?

[SARKY]

These are last resort senarios, but they have been reasoned out. Here is my situation, I live in the bay (SF) area. If we have a big quake, the bay area will be cut off due to overpasses falling down and landslides blocking the passes out of the bay. Once the supplies in the bay are exausted (probably 3 days or less) the vermin will start taking what they want. When it looks like it will be getting bad, we're out of here! Primary departure is up and over the hill that block auto escape. Secondary plan is to steal a boat (preferably sail) make our way out to the ocean and sail south to an area I have picked (state park) beach said boat and set up camp.

[Sourdough]

while mrs eagle does not want to survive i do, i still need about 5 more years to prepare and learn to be able to say truthfully that i could live in that primitive lifestyle

I am with Mrs. Eagle on this one. My life is hard enough, I could not take it much rougher. It was more fun when I was younger.......I look forward to a water system and septic this fall, after going 11 1/2 months with out a hot shower. I could live with the Outhouse & Honey'Bucket forever, even into my 80's.

[Sourdough]

I see "Pandemic" as the highest probability for catastrophic event. Followed by massive or total electric grid failure as second most likely event.

Anchorage, Alaska has ONLY one "Two-lane" road going south, it is carved out of shear cliff on one side, and shear drop to the ocean on the other side. With-in one hour of panic the road will be shut tight with accidents and gridlock, and vehicles running out of fuel and abandoned. There is only one other way out to the north, and it bottle necks down to two lanes to cross the Eagle River Bridge. There was a time I pondered how to deal with the hoards from Anchorage, AK. but I now see that 400,000 humans will be trapped.

[oneraindog]

ive seena lot of replies here and in cowboys thread about BOBs talking about bugging IN instead of out. while this is a most preferable situation many people might not have that option. it seems that a lot of people on this forum are already in rural situations or have access to one. what about those of us that dont?
living in seattle i am in a pretty deep urban environment and if things where really going south in the figurative sense then i would want to be going south in the literal sense. honestly i dont want to be around while a city rips itself apart because there is no electricity, the supermarkets have dried up and law enforcement is non-existent.
i dont have the luxury of sitting pretty on my ranch while all hell breaks lose and the city burns so my option is getting the heck out of dodge.

as for reasons to leave many have been listed and all are valid possibilities. one that hasnt been addressed is complete social collapse. at the risk of being pegged the conspiracy wing nut i gotta ask why hasnt anyone mentioned this possibility? am i the only one that is worried about the dire state of this nation financialy and politically?
i may be biting off a big chew here but im going to say it:
i dont think a collapse much like that of soviet russia is beyond the realm of possibility. ill just leave that there and see if anyone wants to tangle with that

there was also the mention of red dawn and foreign invasion and how that isnt really possible. but why are we assuming forgeign INVASION. why arnt we also worried about the government turning on us? is this so unlikely to everyone. i try not to lose sleep overit but fear of the federal government is one of my big motivations i have for hanging around these kinds of forums. i have no fear of an invading army. i do however think often about various reasons martial law may be imposed possible even using UN troops instead of our own military which is off fighting in various other theaters.
and these fears arnt based on wild imaginings. i think i have some credible reasons to assume these things as possibilities. again ill just leave t at that unless someone wants to examine the particulars.

natural disaster?.... sure go to moms.
bio-terrorism?.... lots of options that dont include the woods.

social collapse/coup/american government turned dictatorship?.....can i come stay on someones farm?

[Ken]

i dont think a collapse much like that of soviet russia is beyond the realm of possibility. ill just leave that there and see if anyone wants to tangle with that

Yep, it's possible. Highly unlikely, but possible. You have to remember that our forms of government are not at all similar. As for the people of each nation, well let's just say that people here are much less intimidated by the government to begin with. 200+ years of freedom generates some strong independent habits.

i have no fear of an invading army. i do however think often about various reasons martial law may be imposed possible even using UN troops instead of our own military which is off fighting in various other theaters.

UN troops here? I just don't buy it. Sorry.

social collapse/coup/american government turned dictatorship?.....can i come stay on someones farm?

I believe that the American spirit and our various levels of government make widespread collapse highly improbable. Dictatorship? Can you say A S S I N A T I O N?

[COWBOYSURVIVAL]

Yep, it's possible. Highly unlikely, but possible. You have to remember that our forms of government are not at all similar. As for the people of each nation, well let's just say that people here are much less intimidated by the government to begin with. 200+ years of freedom generates some strong independent habits.



UN troops here? I just don't buy it. Sorry.



I believe that the American spirit and our various levels of government make widespread collapse highly improbable. Dictatorship? Can you say A S S I N A T I O N?

Agreed! We will be the last to fall!

[crashdive123]

Oneraindog - I think I understand what you are saying. I lived in the Seattle area (albeit on the other side of the sound) for about nine years. While living inside the city proper during civil unrest may not be the most comfortable feeling, I think that order would be restored in relatively short order. There are so many areas that are not far from the city, but in developed areas. My recollection of the area (it was the 80's when I lived there) is that the people are a hearty, self reliant bunch that would be able to handle themselves just fine.

[oneraindog]

hmm. as far as collapse goes i dont think it has to do with our respective forms of government. i think its more an economic threat. similarly i dont think it makes a diffference that we are on a capatalist system and soviet russia was communist.


the follwing is a an excerpt of a post i made in a different forum and just to save effort ill just copy/paste because it sums upthe ideas relating to this topic pretty well

""the factors i am most familiar with point in the direction of a collapse comparable to that of the soviet union. there are three key ingredients that go in to super power collapse and all three are being heated to a boiling point as we speak. these three things are:

1. a chronic shortfall in the production/acquisition of crude oil. which could also be read as an increasing problem of import/control of the supply.

2. a severe and worsening trade deficit.

3. ballooning foreign debt

special attention should be paid to the reasons behind the current economic crisis as this is a manifestation of the of the underlying decay. NOTE: the current american financial crisis is NOT due solely to banking malpractice. you can break the situation down in to smaller pieces which, from my understanding, will be the ultimate downfall of our system if not addressed properly. these are:

1) fractional reserve banking (leveraging)

2) fiat currency (inflation)

3) deficit spending (borrowing)

4) socialism (wealth redistribution, central planning, regulation)

5) the government belief that it can have all of these things and control the bubbles and malinvestments it creates

6) the Keynesian response to inevitable crashes

a) manipulating interest rates (see #1, #2, #3)

b) quantitative easing (see #1, #2)

c) government spending (see #3)

d) providing increased entitlements (see #3, #4)

we are fast approaching a point where the amount we produce is outweighed by what we consume and our massive debt can only be met with more borrowing and/or printing of increasingly worthless money. this trips a downward spiral where we can not escape the velocity of the interest on the loans and our money becomes devalued at a rate that production can not keep up with. this situation is untenable. it is an economic black hole and it leads ultimately to collapse. for more information look at zimbabwe and a host of other countries that have followed the exact same pattern.

and i wont even get in to the external threats. i think they speak for themselves. but it is my belief that the current system is, AT BEST, ill equipped to manage the protection of its people from enemies both foreign and domestic.

AT WORST we are being steered by those who would use social crisis to revamp the american way of life into a new world order where the free man is a thing of the past. there is still enough free will left in the american people that you cant just come right out and declare a dictatorship. you have a much easier time of it if you guide people to it by making them think its their own choice using fear and partisanship as your prods. for more information please see the rise of hitler and the use of dogs in herding ranch animals. ""



a good introduction to the reasoning behind this is a book called Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects by dmitri orlov. orlov is russian born and spent a lot of time during the collapse in russia witnessing its evolution and researching the contributing causes. i think there are more than a few worthy observations he makes.
highly recommended reading.

[Ken]

Nope. Don't see it happening.

[oneraindog]

Nope. Don't see it happening.

i totally respect that. so not to sound like im trying to antagonize or press it but if you feel like it id be curious to know what you think are the preventative factors?
i dont neccessairly want to argue. im always on the lookout for contradictory lines of reasoning. god knows id rather NOT think these events are on the horizon.
but fair warning: i do enjoy playing devils advocate

[COWBOYSURVIVAL]

It is easier to see for us, the next generation. But there are many that see it and won't admit it. I said earlier the US would be the last to fall, doesn't mean I don't think the world is in serious trouble! Good post oneraindog!

[oneraindog]

It is easier to see for us, the next generation. But there are many that see it and won't admit it. I said earlier the US would be the last to fall, doesn't mean I don't think the world is in serious trouble! Good post oneraindog!

thansk cowboy.
i agree america is made of stern stuff. but we are talking about preparation here right?

[Sourdough]

One aspect of all this that is never talked about, is the assumption that city people will even be allowed into small towns. Most small towns can't even handle the traffic flow of escaping hoards. We don't look at the impact of massive inflows of humans. The town of Hope, AK. has "NO" public toilets, NO public water. and one 6 room hotel.

Some years ago there was an impromptu Bluegrass festival. It was a nightmare, with human waste everywhere. They tried to do the festival the next year, and they said OK post $50,000.-- or rent 50 port-a-poopers, Two water tankers, etc. It would be like Woodstock Rock Festival, if even 2,000 humans descended on Hope, AK. which has about 200 year around humans. We have no police, no medical, no stores, no gas stations.

I have not been to America in 10 years, but it seemed it was just big city after big city spaced out by small city. Was there not a study for Y2K and the city of Denver figured, with no accidents, it would take 8 days bumper to bumper to evacuate the city.

[Sourdough]

Oneraindog, I don't think you could escape Seattle by road if the SHTF. Now by boat you could get to the best survival location in America in my opinion. That would be South East Alaska.

[oneraindog]

Oneraindog, I don't think you could escape Seattle by road if the SHTF. Now by boat you could get to the best survival location in America in my opinion. That would be South East Alaska.

me and some friends have plotted possible out routes. there are a few back roads out of the south end of the city. there is also a sail boat option in which case we are coming to see you

[crashdive123]

For the sailing option - there are a whole lot of uninhabited islands in the Straigts of Juan de Fuca. Used to do quite a bit of sailing up there.

[Sourdough]

there is also a sail boat option in which case we are coming to see you

Bring a woman.........on second thought bring two.

[Rick]

@ Oneraindog - Your post was both excellent and well thought out. You offer up some very sound economic concerns. Left to their own devices, they would most probably play out much to what you have posted. However, there are many other factors at play that I think strengthen both our government and our economy.

1. A free press. I know there are many on here that don't believe our press is free but controlled by the government. However, if you examine the press's history you'll see a free press in action. Heavily controlled in its reporting during WWII, that changed in the 60's and we've seen unabashed and timely reports in each and every conflict since then.

We've seen the press bring down a President, a Vice President, two Speaker's of the House as well as many other politicians. Illinois' Blagojevich being one of the latest.

It works by informing the masses of trends and issues. We are seeing it in action right now with the current business cycle. More and more folks are curtailing spending and saving more because the press is keeping the economy in the spot light. I'm far more concerned about unethical and untrained bloggers spouting crap on the internet than I am over the true press.

2. The U.S. Dollar - Despite all the controversy, it is still the world's currency. Yes, it is fiat and the price can be arbitrarily set but so can and have precious metals. Any form of currency can be regulated and the value arbitrarily set. It doesn't matter if you are using rocks, bird feathers, spam or diamonds. Any or all of it can be regulated and the price fixed. The U.S. Government set the price on gold when it was outlawed as did the Hunt brothers when they attempted to manipulate the silver market. Only their greed stopped them.

3. U.S. Resilience - Probably because of our diversity and some other factors, we have to be the pluckiest bunch of folks on the planet. We don't put up with much BS and when the chips are down we do the job. I don't need to cite examples here. They abound. That is one of the simple strong arms that will keep this country going. Because we will it to and because we believe in each other. Period.

4. Religion - This country has very strong roots in religion and, believe in it or not, religion has, historically, been one of the cornerstones of governmental longevity.

I don't understand your position on "the Keynesian response to inevitable crashes". There is no such thing as "inevitable crashes". In fact, Keynesian response is one of activist restraint of aggregate demand combined with incomes policy designed to control inflation and therefore prevent a crash.

In any case, my point here is you can take any single piece of our country and site issues, policies and problems that doom us. It just isn't that simple. You have to look at the country as a whole. After all, that's what we are.

My head hurts.

[Rick]

@ Sarky - Change in plans. As it turned out, it wasn't a big earthquake at all. The Hilina Slump finally dropped off the south slope of the Kilauea volcano creating a tsunimi 1000 feet high. Your boat is now in Kansas and somewhat damaged. The good news is there are several used surf board shops in Kansas now.

[Rick]

That's a good point. It's one thing to defend your ranch against wannabe bad guys but it's quite another to try and stand your ground against a fire. That's not a high concern for me since I'm in an urban environment but in the city that should be a real concern.