Can we have this conversation?

[trax]

There's a lot of concern about TSHTF scenarios and they usually come down to bug out or dig in. Food shortages leading to mobs roaming the streets willing to attack someone who has dug in, etc. My question is, how effective can people in that situation expect to be? Usually a mob/gang has one or two people who have mouthed off enough to take on some kind of leadership role? But are they truly qualified? I think as soon as one or two things go wrong, the mob will turn their back on their leaders anyway.

There's an old western, I think Audie Murphy played the lead, either him or Alan Ladd.Anyway, the main character is in this town and he's a legendary killer and everyone in this town knows he's there to kill someone, but no one knows who his victim is supposed to be.A big part of the story is all these different people who each think they're the target. Finally, a couple of people get the whole town riled up and a big mob approaches him, he's sitting on the porch of the place he's staying, drinking coffee, and they stop just off the porch and tell they're going to drag him out and lynch him or some such thing. He stands up, still sipping his coffee and tells them come on ahead and do it, basically that there's no way he can get all of them, but....he can get some of them. Pretty soon people start remembering that they've got chickens to feed or wood to split etc etc and start wandering off.

I think that's about what it takes to deal with that kind of mentality, but you better be willing to mean what you say and back it up. Communities developed millenia ago out of a need for mutual protection from other predators, animal and human. Gangs form for the same basic reason....fear. Thoughts? Uncle Remy, you going to throw something in here?

[ryaninmichigan]

There is truth to what you say. I remember one time Jay Leno had Chuck Norris on, He asked if the audience rushed the stage if he could take all of them out. Chuck responded no but I would feel real bad for the first 5 or 6. I think this is the right way to think. You can have 20 or 30 civilians outside your house. Every one is tough until you poke a hole 5 or 6…

[Ole WV Coot]

A mob is about as organized as a Chinese fire drill. I got stuck in '68 at night when the riot broke out in DC. I just stood on the corner waiting for a bus(I hoped). I watched liquor stores, pawn shops etc being looted and nobody bothered me until a bunch of 17-18yr old kids didn't like my lack of a tan, they ran their mouths I didn't say anything just picked out the biggest "leader" if you could call him that and when they got to me I gave him a backhand across the throat with a simple old knife hand. Worked great, I didn't get anything but a lot of mouth and a happy ending for me. Cut off the snake's head and he ain't gonna do much.

[crashdive123]

No arguments with that Trax. I believe that for the most part gangs form out of fear. That fear may manifest itself in many different forms, but after forming they may have a sense of security, or belonging, or whatever they were seeking to try and wrestle with their fears. I also believe that there are a lot more good people than bad people in the world. When like minded "good" people band together to fight evil I believe they will prevail. The quote (there are many versions) "All that is needed for evil to triumph is for good ment to do nothing." is very true (((((hope I'm not sounding too much like Spud......gotta go clear those firing lines))))

[remy]

I think it depends on the motivations of the mob, and not the mob itself.
Look at Africa for example...mobs can be pretty determined to do damage.
Another interesting example, although this mob was organized, is the take down of one of the most advanced civilization of its time by a 180 men and 27 horses lead by Francisco Pizzaro.

What this means, is that the success of a mob, or the success of the opposing force(s), rests on a very fragile set of "coincidences".
The Inca force was formidable. More than 80,000 warriors.

One of the most famous "mob" in American history, was lead by Geronimo. He fought for over 25 years both united states troops and Mexican troops.

I do not view mobs as simplistic conglomerates of disorganized men...i view them as forces.
Forces can be disorganized, and still overcome anything that stands in their way. The motivation behind the force is of great importance. But a mob can also be extremely organized, even though the definition of the word itself leads us to believe otherwise.

Have you ever watched how birds fly in groups ?
It could seam extremely disorganized and chaotic, a giant cloud moving and swooping, each bird seemingly following a strange current. Yet, this mass is organized. Not in its individuals, but in its relationship to the sky...and most importantly, to one another.

Each mob must be evaluated. And further more, the reasons for the mob to be.
Your example speaks of a mob facing a passive threat. The psychology behind it is pretty evident. But it cannot compare to mobs forming for extreme conditions such as famine for example. 1789 france, is probably the quintessential symbol of a determined mob.

The psychology behind a mob depends on its situation, its motivation, and its nature.
If the individuals within the mob know one another...which would suggest emotional ties and hierarchy, and therefore a certain organization, this mob will be affected by the death of one or more of its members. But if the mob is of strangers, of an explosion of circumstances and coincidences fueled by a strong motivation, then that mob will most likely not be affected the same way by losses.

Of course, each individual will also determine the cohesion and extent of the power within the group. Their experience, their conditioning, their education, their beliefs...are all factors to be considered. A Los Angeles street gang or "mob" will have different motivations than Chinese students. Different back grounds...And in this light, i doubt a street gang-member would have stood in front of a tank. And i doubt the Chinese student would shoot a 14 year old for no obvious reason.

The idea here is in ideals.
I was faced by a mob once...13 or 14 individuals in the project i grew up in.
The psychological game as with your example worked and a fight was avoided, we even became friends afterwards. But their motivation was not coherent.
I never faced a group watching their children die of hunger or diseases. I never faced a group with religious motivations, or idealistic goals.

[remy]

Furthermore...


We must realize, that a mob forms to increase the individuals chances of survival, since when a large group is involved, it reduces the risks to each member.
This mechanism comes from our ancestors...originally it was an "anti-predator" behavior. And in most cases, the mob will view the opposing force as a predator. Something "big" and "menacing" we must defend against by attacking it in numbers.

Today we have "smart mobs".
A coherent and intelligent mob. The emergence of the "smart mob" is said to have appeared recently, but as my examples show throughout history, the "smart mob", in my view, has been around for a while.

We are once again slightly thinking of scenarios involving a major break down of social understandings. But no matter what the scenario would be, the "smart mob" is a lot more evident today than ever. Gangs are "smart mobs" for example...The time of angry pitch fork wilding and torch swinging masses is of the past. In your scenarios, you will most likely have to face a smart mob.
Maybe not trained ex-military with eotechs, miniguns and sound tactics (although gangs nowadays send members to the marines to acquire tactical training), but not chaotic fear driven unstable groups either.

[Beo]

Remy,
I disagree, Geronimo did not lead a "mob" he was a warrior from his tribe holding out to his beliefs with a party od fellow warriors which he led in hit and run raids on the U.S. Cav. which is a big difference between a gang or large group of idiots running amuck. And what is the difference between a mob and a riot? Both set out for the same end result although the cause may be different. Anyway disorganized 'mobs' or groups will fall short, they always have. Its the organized ones you need to watch out for. With the disorganized group there is always some blowhard in the back smacking his lips and a bunch of idiots following his rear-leadership, but the organized groups have set missions to accomplish, the leader knows what he wants done and is not just shouting to take this and that or do this and that or just blowing his wind, he cool and decisive in what has to be done to get the results he wants, this is (the organized mob) is the group to watch out for.
Other than the Geronimo thing I agree with you though.
Beo,

[Canadian-guerilla]

i think anyone who plans on digging in should have outside defense plans

for someone in the city, find some high ground
whether it's in the attic or an abandoned house across the street
just sitting in the dark with a candle, being afraid to move around and/or make any noise
and blowing out the candle at the first outside sound is not a defense plan

and for someone in a open rural area
talk a walk around your property/perimeter
look at your home/property from an enemies POV
how close could the enemy get to your house with fair cover
#1 target may be the house, but what else is valuable outside the house
horses-chickens-ATV's-motorbikes
if the bad guy(s) think your house is too well defended
they could always try to get some easy transportation and move on to the next target

[trax]

Remy,

I disagree with you on a couple of points. The first one that Beo pointed out, the men with Geronimo were trained warriors. A group of people in and of itself does not constitute a mob or a gang. I'm also pretty sure that Pizzaro et al had a few advantages on their side of the people that they destroyed. Firearms, disease, nevertheless..... The movie 300 showed how 300 Spartans took on a million man Persian army, but they again were 300 trained warriors so I wouldn't think they constitute a mob.

As far as the idea of a "smart mob" I get a sense that the phrase is something of an oxymoron, but giving it it's due, I don't think that's what people will be dealing with in those SHTF situations. Those people forming mobs will be doing so out of desperation and near panic. The motivation of the mob is essential as you pointed out, but people tend to lose their motivation in a hurry if they see their leaders go down. That's been just as true of trained military groups at times in the past as it has of disorganized, panicked mobs. Just my opinion.

Just want to add this little bit because C-G posted while I was typing. The bad guys, ask Beo on this, are always going to go for the easy target. It's like car theft, if you have the "club" or whatever, they'll go for the car that doesn't. There's ways to get past the club, but it's still easier for the thief if he doesn't have to. So yeah, any defensive plan is better than none for those hunkering down, but I can guarantee nobody's ever gonna find me hiding in the attic with a candle.

[ryaninmichigan]

I would define a mob as, a group of strangers thrust together not by choice, but out of fear of the given circumstance. Not a collective force with one objective but a group of people with there own objective. What you faced was a gang of 13-14. Not a mob.

[trax]

I don't know that I'd try to define things too much, especially since I wasn't in any of the situations we've talked about thus far. I know from experience that if you can personalize a threat to one or two individuals, in a gang or a mob or whatever you want to call them, they'll back down (like the western movie/Chuck Norris examples) I also know that "mobs" can have a broader scope than what we've looked at here so far, I'm thinking of the screaming hordes that Hitler could whip up into a frenzy with his speeches in pre-war Germany. He managed to focus their fears onto specific targets and the people were hungry/bitter/desperate enough to buy into his rationale. There's a mob leader if ever I saw one.

Overall though, I think in the situation that I first put forward, an individual can utlize the mob member's fears to his own advantage and I think that's key.

[Rick]

When I hear all the yelling and screaming outside I'll just tell them they have the wrong house.

"Down the street two blocks, fellahs." (pointing)
"Huh? Oh, sorry. Come on guys."
"Sorry for the noise, mister."
"No problem."

[trax]

I pictured you more as a "you kids quieten down or I'm coming out there" kind of guy followed by a general mumbling and shuffling of feet as they disperse.

[remy]

Your understanding of a mob is limited then.
"A large group of idiots running amuck"...why not.
If Geronimo was doing his thing today...we would call him a terrorist. And his "warriors", a group of dogs indeed running amuck.
As for the romanticization of Geronimo's "warriors" being "trained", i don't think so.


Pizzaro had indeed few advantages...hence "coincidences". But the motives remain the same. Big fat force against few. To me, the difference of which side is called a mob rests on the side of your fence.

Again, you are making the assumption that "desperation" and "fear" is a bad thing that in the end will be the demise of the force at play. You are wrong. As for the leader going down and "the bad guys" loosing their motivations...well...wouldn't that be nice if it worked every-time. I don't think i need examples of this.

If you want to only view mobs as disorganized idiots (and some probably are)...like i said...why not. But the fact is, that mobs, and mob mentality, is a very complicated happening. In fact, not two mobs are alike, since they are all composed of different personalities, histories, motivations, needs, beliefs...etc.
Some are composed of strangers, some are not.
Some are organized, some are not.
Some have leaders, some do not.
It depends...

[remy]

I don't think i am being clear...

A mob, represents a certain understanding of a force.
It is the "form" of one kind of force.

Our understanding of this force we call mob, is mostly represented in our culture by a "disorganized" group of individuals with a certain intention we perceive opposes our safety, although it can encompass other realms such as beliefs. The reason this mob banded together, is of the same nature...it is for them to feel safer. It is for most species, a way to minimize risks.

This form of force, is often seen as "disorganized", because it is made of individuals coming together for purposes that align with risk calculations (The objective is shared by all...survive or survive better). Calculation, as i have said before, gives birth to fear. It is because each individual calculates its place within the mob, that fear emanates.
In some cases, this calculation is trumped by the motivation, the needs, the beliefs or other processes shared by the group...creating a more coherent mob.
This process is often ignited by a leader...but can also appear by itself.

Now, a mob can also arise from a place where the calculation of risks is not the first factor. This is called a "smart mob". This mob will band together for motivations and beliefs greater than any risks. Although this mob can appear disorganized for lack of discipline or tactical knowledge or who knows what, this mob is in fact very organized "spiritually" and / or psychologically...since it already knows that with numbers, comes a certain advantage, a certain power.

This mob is often fueled by political, religious, ideological or spiritual ideas...and can revert at any moment to the "first mob"...realizing suddenly, that the idea is not worth the risk (that was a bad idea!).
But, it can also move on to a greater force, when faced with extreme adversity. This happens when the individuals within the mob loose their individuality for the "salvation" of the "specie" (it is an instinct).
Let us remember, that all of these processes are based on very simple instincts...but that our mind has transformed and distorted them into weird concepts and cultural oddities.

[Ole WV Coot]

I know I'm gonna hate myself for this but in my humble opinion being self imprisoned for two days in DC to keep my rear from looking like raw hamburger and observing from the top of a microwave tower. I saw nothing except looting in the order of liquor stores, bars, pawn shops, fancy clothing stores. Looters fighting among themselves over jewelry, booze, clothing etc. Nothing that could be used because their own apartment buildings were torched. I watched men, women & children strip and try on clothing, one man falling on a glass window was used as a bridge with his throat cut. The police force was ORDERED not to get involved. They stood and watched. Strictly mob mentality and no leaders from the front or rear of the pack. Second night all homeless people were forced toward PA Ave. Gas stations were ordered closed. I watched gangs of kids, none over 12 or so dump gasoline on homeless folks or drunks and torch them just for the hell of it. Anyone that can defend this action or rationalize it would fit in with that pack of animals, not humans. By the way TRAX you started this and are back up for adoption.

[Sam Reeves]

Demographics

There were no riots in Iowa when the floods came. There was no riots in San Diego when the forests fires came. When the levees broke in New Orleans TSHTF. In Los Angles TSHTF because of a court case.

Find the common denominator. The math isn't that hard.

[Ole WV Coot]

Demographics

There were no riots in Iowa when the floods came. There was no riots in San Diego when the forests fires came. When the levees broke in New Orleans TSHTF. In Los Angles TSHTF because of a court case.

Find the common denominator. The math isn't that hard.

No it's not. I get wound up too easy I guess but TRAX is still up for adoption.

[awfoxden]

in my opinion going back to the original scenerio i think you will be facing somthing much more threatening than a mob of people looking for food. i think you iwill be minding your own business and then bang! no warning a group of people well armed will use impromptu military tactics i.e. sniping and small unit actions to eliminate a potential threat prior to invading a house to look for food. if people are truly hungrey all bets are off.

[Ridge Wolf]

"This form of force, is often seen as "disorganized", because it is made of individuals coming together for purposes that align with risk calculations (The objective is shared by all...survive or survive better). Calculation, as i have said before, gives birth to fear. It is because each individual calculates its place within the mob, that fear emanates."

Remy, can you expand on this? I kind of follow what you mean but then, if the individual 'calculates' his place within the mob, how does fear emanate? Is it fear that something will happen to him or fear of individual failure? I don't understand that aspect of what you have said.