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Thread: So, how ‘bout that carona virus?

  1. #61
    Senior Member nell67's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LowKey View Post
    Bah, death spiral. No one is that dependent on China. Except maybe Amazon Prime, and I'm not worried about them.
    It's all about instilling panic as Alan said. There's a certain segment that seems to buy into all the media hype no matter what it is.
    Maybe this is the apocalypse a lot of the lurkers have been dreaming of. Get your BOBs and black rifles and get ready to eat tree bark and MREs.

    I did notice some very strange holes in the shelves at the grocery store today.
    No flour. Never seen that before.
    Lots of bread missing (though there were a few snowflakes in the air while wandering into the store.)
    Big holes in the water aisle too.

    My mission tomorrow is toilet paper. Time to make a Costco trip up over the border. Cash. No sales tax.
    The Walmart and Jay-C food store here (Kroger), were completely out of bleach. Not one single bottle of any bleach except the spray bottles and wipes. Said they had none in the stock room, and none coming one the next truck. Went in yesterday and they had a few bottles of off brand on the shelves, but everyone wanted Clorox.... The dollar store had tons of their label as did Dollar General. In the labs I've worked in, they make their own disinfectant of 10:1 bleach solution. They don't buy Clorox, they use the cheapest bleach available. It works.
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  2. #62
    Senior Member WolfVanZandt's Avatar
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    Cliff, it was more deadly because, once you got it, you were more likely to die, and it spread well enough to be an issue. If you have a compromised immune system, you should be concerned about this virus, but otherwise, it's not a big deal.
    True enough, my final home is still out there, but this is most certainly my home range and I love it. I love every rock I fall off and tree I trip over. Even when I am close to dying from exhaustion, a beautiful sunset doesn't lose it's power to refresh and inspire me and that, in itself, is enough to save me sometimes.

  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by nell67 View Post
    The Walmart and Jay-C food store here (Kroger), were completely out of bleach. Not one single bottle of any bleach except the spray bottles and wipes. Said they had none in the stock room, and none coming one the next truck. Went in yesterday and they had a few bottles of off brand on the shelves, but everyone wanted Clorox.... The dollar store had tons of their label as did Dollar General. In the labs I've worked in, they make their own disinfectant of 10:1 bleach solution. They don't buy Clorox, they use the cheapest bleach available. It works.
    EVERYONE knows that only name brand sodium hypochlorite solutions kill germs. Get with the program.

    ;o)
    "The more complex the mind, the greater the need for the simplicity of play." Capt. James T. Kirk

  4. #64
    Senior Member BENESSE's Avatar
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    Exaggerated or not, it just goes to show how vulnerable we all are to other people's panic and misinformation in general.
    The bottom line has always been: prepare for the worst before you really have to. Coronavirus is no different.

  5. #65
    Super Moderator crashdive123's Avatar
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    Another big takeaway for this is that we as a country are way too dependent on China. Far too many essential items are manufactured there and seem to be our only source. Just as individuals, we need to be much less dependent on others and more self sufficient.
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  6. #66
    Senior Member WolfVanZandt's Avatar
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    Crash, if we were the country (we, the people, that is) we probably would be.
    True enough, my final home is still out there, but this is most certainly my home range and I love it. I love every rock I fall off and tree I trip over. Even when I am close to dying from exhaustion, a beautiful sunset doesn't lose it's power to refresh and inspire me and that, in itself, is enough to save me sometimes.

  7. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfVanZandt View Post
    Cliff, it was more deadly because, once you got it, you were more likely to die, and it spread well enough to be an issue. If you have a compromised immune system, you should be concerned about this virus, but otherwise, it's not a big deal.
    You are comparing one virus that ran its course over 15 years ago and has been studied extensively, to a brand new virus that is still spreading. That's about like saying your car is the fastest because you are in the lead after 3 seconds, while the guy behind you is still accelerating.

    The idea that it is only dangerous to compromised patients isn't really well-founded yet, either. Most anything is going to be more dangerous to those that are already ill, but we don't really have enough information to say everyone else is safe.

    As far as SARS goes, you were way less likely to get that, as only 8000 or so people ever did. We're at over 10 times that number right now. That's after 2 months versus a 9 month run for SARS. Additionally, the SARS data is complete. All cases have run their course. No new cases and everyone that got it is now recovered or dead. Complete statistics. This COVID-19 takes longer to start causing problems and is spreading rapidly. Thus, the number of new cases is going up a lot faster than the number of people dropping dead. The death rate is calculated by number of deaths divided by number of known cases. So since the virus is actively spreading, the denominator is obviously going up more rapidly than the numerator. But it doesn't make a lot of sense to look at someone that got diagnosed with COVID-19 fifteen minutes ago and count them in the "survivor" category. So that 2% number could be a lot lower than the actual number of people that are going to die. It's also possible that there are a ton of unreported cases also causing problems calculating the actual rate.

    I'm not urging you to panic, overthrow the government, go live isolated in the woods, stockpile guns and ammo, or anything like that. But I certainly wouldn't brush this off because someone says it's only 2% and the flu is worse or anything like that.

  8. #68

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    I'm not a M.D. or with the CDC so all this should be confirmed. And, new information, insight and continuing new developments are contributing to a progressively better understanding.

    The CDC has publicly released those at highest risk of death are those with dysfunctional immune systems and those with pre existing conditions - diabetes, cardiovascular disease, etc. The CDC also offers how to reduce contraction risks of COVID-19

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ssessment.html

    COVID -19 is but one virus in the corona virus 'family.'

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  10. #70
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    Meanwhile, back on the reality ranch.....

    CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.(CDCwww.cdc.gov )


    Alan

  11. #71

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    Another with some prep guides. Use it or don’t. https://www.theorganicprepper.com/do...demic-30-days/

  12. #72
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    U.S. reports 9th coronavirus death... (WAPO)

    Regular flu - 34,200 deaths
    Coronavirus - 9 deaths

    And that's with FREE flu shots....

    I'm not really seeing the urgency...

    But some people are. I was in Harbor Freight to day getting an armload of junk (from China) and a guy comes in looking for respirators and masks. The manager told him to go to Lowes or Home Depot... He didn't look like a painter... He left in a hurry...

    I have a chronic cough, have had it all my life. I cough to some exent about every minute. Every time I'd cough today everyone else would turn and look at me...

    I think I'll go to town again tomorrow... doesn't take much to entertain me...


    Alan

  13. #73
    Super Moderator crashdive123's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan R McDaniel Jr View Post


    I have a chronic cough, have had it all my life. I cough to some exent about every minute. Every time I'd cough today everyone else would turn and look at me...

    I think I'll go to town again tomorrow... doesn't take much to entertain me...


    Alan
    If you find yourself in a long check-out line.........just cough and ask out loud that you wonder if you picked up the cough in China. Bet it speeds up the check-out process.
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  14. #74
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
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    You, sir, are sick. Oh, wait. I wonder if it's the virus? Naw.

    Numbers can be a bit misleading at this point. You have to consider the time spans involved. If we wait a year and look at the numbers they may look a lot different. H1N1 saw 20,000 hospitalized and 1000 deaths (rounded) in the first six months in 2009 before Obama declared an emergency. I'm glad Trump moved as quickly as he did. That may have a positive impact on the U.S. numbers and that translates to human suffering and lives.

  15. #75

  16. #76

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan R McDaniel Jr View Post
    U.S. reports 9th coronavirus death... (WAPO)

    Regular flu - 34,200 deaths
    Coronavirus - 9 deaths

    And that's with FREE flu shots....

    I'm not really seeing the urgency...

    But some people are. I was in Harbor Freight to day getting an armload of junk (from China) and a guy comes in looking for respirators and masks. The manager told him to go to Lowes or Home Depot... He didn't look like a painter... He left in a hurry...

    I have a chronic cough, have had it all my life. I cough to some exent about every minute. Every time I'd cough today everyone else would turn and look at me...

    I think I'll go to town again tomorrow... doesn't take much to entertain me...


    Alan
    Two posts show the difference.

    65 cases and 9 deaths.

    Or.

    35.5 million cases and 34,000 deaths.

    If this thing spreads like it has the potential to do, it would be very bad. Chiba appears to have drastically slowed transmission with draconian measures, but it was exploding there for awhile.

  17. #77

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    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ok/4940378002/

    Previous global mortality rate estimates for the coronavirus had been around 2%, and the latest number is not firm because testing continues to lag. It remains unclear how many people actually have been infected. Still, 3.4% mortality rate is worrisome, Tedros said.

    So the death rate is about 75% higher than they initially thought. That adds up to about 1 in 28. And it's possible that number is still low.

  18. #78
    Senior Member WolfVanZandt's Avatar
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    Cliff, I'm not comparing viruses. I'm comparing China's reaction to viruses.

    And rates are very unreliable because....well, because rates are tools for mass manipulation.

    I'm not suggested we blow it off. But I M suggesting we don't lose our minds or be lead around by the nose like a bull to slaughter.

    We have much bigger problems. Hunger kills a lot more than the corona, and we could eliminate that by moving wealth away from the tiny number of people who have it all and use it to save people's lives.

    The corona is a way to shift people's focus from real problems. I don't bait.
    True enough, my final home is still out there, but this is most certainly my home range and I love it. I love every rock I fall off and tree I trip over. Even when I am close to dying from exhaustion, a beautiful sunset doesn't lose it's power to refresh and inspire me and that, in itself, is enough to save me sometimes.

  19. #79

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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfVanZandt View Post
    Cliff, I'm not comparing viruses. I'm comparing China's reaction to viruses.

    And rates are very unreliable because....well, because rates are tools for mass manipulation.

    I'm not suggested we blow it off. But I M suggesting we don't lose our minds or be lead around by the nose like a bull to slaughter.

    We have much bigger problems. Hunger kills a lot more than the corona, and we could eliminate that by moving wealth away from the tiny number of people who have it all and use it to save people's lives.

    The corona is a way to shift people's focus from real problems. I don't bait.
    Didn’t really feel like we were on the cusp of billionaires having all their assets seized and distributed to the slums before this new virus broke loose and infected a bunch of Chinese. I doubt Jeff Bezos is breathing a big sigh of relief.
    Last edited by Cliff Booth; 03-04-2020 at 12:53 PM.

  20. #80

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    I was wondering about food production, processing, transportation and distribution IF it effects the chain of production. The windows are reliant on many factors. The disruption may not be noted for awhile but, they would come. I’d like to see people more self reliant and supplies for more than a few days.

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