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Thread: So, how ‘bout that carona virus?

  1. #101

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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfVanZandt View Post
    Rick, you're right, and things like that add to the lack of urgency in websites like the John Hopkins one. You're also right about the possum...I woulda been short a "friend"

    But what you said is true of all viruses, including the flu. One of the characteristics of viruses, some more than others, is that they mutate. They can mutate into a stronger or weaker form. Evolution would favor a moderate form that spreads (reproduces) better but doesn't kill all the hosts.

    But, as I've said before, the key to surviving anything but an extinction level event is to maintain general body health. The human body is equipped to deal with most assaults from the outside if it's in good working order.

    And, no, Cliff, I don't believe I'm overstating the case at all. I noticed that you're in a health profession. I am retired after 20 years in a health profession and before that I survived 10 years of one of the most dangerous professions there is...college student, and another 10 years working through college. Not only am I well versed in human physiology, pharmacy, viruses and such, but I'm also well versed in my major of social psychology, plus the politics of medical industries, cognitive biases, and mass manipulation.

    I've recommended a level head and non-isolationism. You've been all scarey and stuff but I haven't seen much about how too approach this thing. What are your suggestions, there?
    I would recommend watching the situation very carefully at this point. I would strongly caution against calling it no big deal before we know more about it. I’d keep in mind this thing was growing at an overwhelming rate before China got really serious about it.

    I’d avoid unnecessary travel, especially internationally.

    I’d be nervous if I had kids in daycare or elderly relatives in nursing homes if I lived in an area where the virus had been identified.


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  2. #102
    Senior Member WolfVanZandt's Avatar
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    Last two paragraphs make sense.

    But watch the situation? How are we supposed to do that? Glue ourselves to a machine that can't get the facts straight in the first place?

    I will call it no big deal as long as the medical experts (in my case, John Hopkins and Mayo - hmmm, now I'm hungry) call it no big deal.

    The flu grows at an overwhelming rate every year. So does the cold. Rate of spread doesn't impress me terribly. And neither does hype.

    And young and elderly isn't the issue. Poor health, and specifically poor immunity is the issue.

    And one thing I'm going to do about it is wash dishes and hike Waterton Canyon with a friend....oh, and eat fish.
    True enough, my final home is still out there, but this is most certainly my home range and I love it. I love every rock I fall off and tree I trip over. Even when I am close to dying from exhaustion, a beautiful sunset doesn't lose it's power to refresh and inspire me and that, in itself, is enough to save me sometimes.

  3. #103

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    I had laugh this morning. A doctor's site call a radio station in Nashville and said " that her husband said that it was no big deal but that she needed to go to the store and stock up the pantry because with a case I Franklin people would panic and there wouldn't be anything t left in the store . "

  4. #104

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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfVanZandt View Post
    Last two paragraphs make sense.

    But watch the situation? How are we supposed to do that? Glue ourselves to a machine that can't get the facts straight in the first place?

    I will call it no big deal as long as the medical experts (in my case, John Hopkins and Mayo - hmmm, now I'm hungry) call it no big deal.

    The flu grows at an overwhelming rate every year. So does the cold. Rate of spread doesn't impress me terribly. And neither does hype.

    And young and elderly isn't the issue. Poor health, and specifically poor immunity is the issue.

    And one thing I'm going to do about it is wash dishes and hike Waterton Canyon with a friend....oh, and eat fish.
    Hopkins and Mayo are basically saying exactly what I just said. They are absolutely not saying this is no big deal and don’t worry about it.


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  6. #106
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
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    So, anyone want to buy a Pa National Guard uniform? Slightly used only on week-ends. Going cheap.

  7. #107

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    Looking at Italy, it appears around 10% of folks with the virus require hospitalization. Most of those need respirators to help them breathe. Anyone treating them would need an N95 mask. Preferably, that mask would be changed multiple times per day to avoid cross contamination, although they can technically be used for around 8 hours.

    We’ve got about 1 million or so hospital beds in the entire country. I’d say over half are occupied at any given time. So let’s say we’ve got 500,000. And those are regular beds, not ICU beds or quarantine units, so less than ideal situation. So your risk of the other people in the hospital contracting it is going to be pretty high and these are mostly the people that you worry the most when they get it. I’m also unsure what the number of respirators looks like. Hospital beds may not do a whole lot of good if we have no means to assist breathing.

    Growth models seem to indicate the number of cases doubles about every week. It’s followed that pattern pretty closely everywhere except for post lockdown China. We’ve got 375 cases now. So only 30-40 hospital beds affected at the moment. Very manageable. In 8 weeks you’d have more like 10,000 hospitalized. Still doable. 12 weeks out it’s more like 150,000 beds, which would be a tremendous strain. And obviously it gets worse from there. Of course, this is all based on the rate of growth not changing and the current level of virulence remaining the same. But that kind of volume would probably lead to a lot of unrelated deaths from people just not having the same access to care.


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  8. #108

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    If you're worried about hospital beds, catch it early is all I can offer.

    Try to by hand sanitizer. LOL.
    Amazon is price gouging at nearly $20 per 8oz bottle.
    I noticed today all gone in both Walmart and Walgreens.
    Even the alcohol prep pads for injections and bottles of isopropyl alcohol are all gone.

    This too shall pass.
    Or maybe it's Mother Nature's way of saying there are too many of you.
    <shrug>
    Last edited by LowKey; 03-07-2020 at 04:24 PM.
    If we are to have another contest in…our national existence I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's, but between patriotism & intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition & ignorance on the other…
    ~ President Ulysses S. Grant

  9. #109
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    Lord help us if we ever have a real crisis....



    Alan

  10. #110
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
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    I had a real crisis once. I was on a hot date in the country and broke a fan belt. That wasn't the crisis. I had to call my dad to come get me. THAT was the crisis.

    "What were you doing way out there...never mind. Don't tell me."
    "I got lost."
    Side ways glance followed by head shake.

    That's also the moment I learned to carry a spare fan belt and other ancillary stuff for the car.

  11. #111

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    I kept looking at a!l the areas going in to lockdown a d can't help but thing about the looking crisis i the maturity wards in 9 months.

  12. #112
    Senior Member WolfVanZandt's Avatar
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    Well, now it's serious. Colorado is quarantining people. That wouldn't be so bad if they strictly protected people's jobs but this is an at-will state. People are going to be fired for being off the job for two weeks and all that has to happen is that someone says that you were exposed. You don't have to be sick to be quarantined.

    Can you say "police state?"

    Cliff, the WHO rated Italy's health care as second best in the world. Every citizen gets health care there. If you sneeze, you can go into the hospital and they'll do everything possible to get you to stop sneezing. Here, we have a thousand homeless and the police say, "move along." They tell you you have to have health insurance but when you buy a policy that you can't afford and you get sick, you go to the hospital and pay out of pocket for the rest of your life because the expensive insurance doesn't pay on claims. Or you get an expensive lawyer if, per chance, you can afford one.

    We're not Italy.
    True enough, my final home is still out there, but this is most certainly my home range and I love it. I love every rock I fall off and tree I trip over. Even when I am close to dying from exhaustion, a beautiful sunset doesn't lose it's power to refresh and inspire me and that, in itself, is enough to save me sometimes.

  13. #113

    Default So, how ‘bout that carona virus?

    That WHO ranking was actually on healthcare efficiency, not necessarily who is “best”. Affordability was a big factor there.

    The economically challenged among us are getting care when they are in a life threatening crisis and that isn’t changing anytime soon.


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  14. #114
    Senior Member WolfVanZandt's Avatar
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    Sometimes, an economically challenged person can't wait for Medicaid to tunnel through all the red tape to get papers in order. People in a large part of the world get health care /when they need it/.
    True enough, my final home is still out there, but this is most certainly my home range and I love it. I love every rock I fall off and tree I trip over. Even when I am close to dying from exhaustion, a beautiful sunset doesn't lose it's power to refresh and inspire me and that, in itself, is enough to save me sometimes.

  15. #115

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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfVanZandt View Post
    Sometimes, an economically challenged person can't wait for Medicaid to tunnel through all the red tape to get papers in order. People in a large part of the world get health care /when they need it/.
    You come to the ER with difficulty breathing you are getting help.

    People in a large part of the world get their MRIs months after they needed it.


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  16. #116
    Senior Member WolfVanZandt's Avatar
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    Thats what you see on the Internet, but it's not what the people from other countries say, nor is it what the WHO says.

    Also, we used to fight like crazy to help our disabled people get disability. I have a close friend that can't work and, incidentally, it's taking forever for him to get disability. In other countries, if you're disabled, you just start drawing disability.
    True enough, my final home is still out there, but this is most certainly my home range and I love it. I love every rock I fall off and tree I trip over. Even when I am close to dying from exhaustion, a beautiful sunset doesn't lose it's power to refresh and inspire me and that, in itself, is enough to save me sometimes.

  17. #117

    Default So, how ‘bout that carona virus?

    Quote Originally Posted by WolfVanZandt View Post
    Thats what you see on the Internet, but it's not what the people from other countries say, nor is it what the WHO says.

    Also, we used to fight like crazy to help our disabled people get disability. I have a close friend that can't work and, incidentally, it's taking forever for him to get disability. In other countries, if you're disabled, you just start drawing disability.
    You should help him relocate to Italy.

    We have bazillions of people on disability a pretty big portion of which are hardly incapable of working. He’ll get it eventually.

    And yes, single payer systems have a whole new set of issues and access to timely tests or procedures that aren’t deemed immediately necessary is a problem. We will be heading that direction soon enough and you’ll get to experience how well a government runs something as complex as healthcare. It’s going to be a lot harder than directing an agency whose sole objective is to put letters and packages in mailboxes.

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    Last edited by Cliff Booth; 03-08-2020 at 06:34 PM.

  18. #118
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    I lived long enough to be on Medicare. I'm set ..... right?

    I'm also glad I can't get the Coronavirus from hearing about it constantly.... I seldom watch the national news on one of the fake news stations, but I did today. If they said "Coronavirus" once they said it a thousand times, mostly preceded by the comment that Trump is not doing enough to stop it....


    Alan

  19. #119

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    It’s going to spread. Nobody can stop it. Blaming is short-sighted and political.

  20. #120
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    Yes, it's going to spread, AND, we will surely get a case by case report from the mainstream news media.

    If you're old and have health problems or have a compromised immune system then you'll likely get it and could probably die from it! But whatever you do take all precautions against getting the REAL flu, because that has a really good chance of punching your dance card.

    Alan

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