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Thread: Hong Kong sorta dodged a bullet with MERS case.

  1. #1
    reclinite automaton canid's Avatar
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    Default Hong Kong sorta dodged a bullet with MERS case.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/…/mers-spreads-china-korean-outbreak…

    Officials are tracing at least 77 contacts.

    MERS CoV is not particularly likely to be transmitted person to person outside of intimate or cohabitation scenarios and the patient was hospitalized in Guangdong who's largest city has a reasonably low population density. On the other hand, he traveled through Hong Kong which is very large and has a density higher than San Francisco's, and it has busier hospitals. A case going unnoticed there could be spread far more easily and contact tracing would be more difficult.

    The outbreak in RoK, from where the China case traveled has infected at least 25 people and while it appears reasonably likely to be contained also it did when the number was 12. There are now two tertiary cases indicating sustainable transmission outside of the middle east without intervention.
    Be safe, world. Wash your hands and cover your coughs.
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    Administrator Rick's Avatar
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    Thanks for the heads up. This kind of stuff is only one flight away. and, yeah, cover that sneeze too.

  3. #3
    reclinite automaton canid's Avatar
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    Indeed. On the bright side, it's been only a flight away for over two and a half years, has made it here twice without secondary infections or fatalities and the WHO has been very proactive in advising all member states to be alert and coordinate training for hospitals, airports and border crossings, which seems to have been well received, particularly in light of the lack of diligence by so many during the early part of last year's ebolavirus outbreak.

    Still; it's likely to be a rough one in global terms, or at least a scary one. Those nations least prepared to deal with it are the ones with the worst infrastructure for such screenings and responses, the worst healthcare quality and will likely continue to see the worst patient outcomes.
    Last edited by canid; 06-02-2015 at 06:54 AM.
    Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice - Grey's Law.
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    I was in Hong Kong and China in January. Glad I missed out.
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  5. #5
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
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    Looks like S. Korea has quarantined 1300.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...6b5_story.html

  6. #6
    reclinite automaton canid's Avatar
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    Yeah; they're not taking any chances at all. They're also allowing schools to chose to close or not.

    I read an article stating that they had a couple hundred suspected cases, which I presume means they are suspecting anybody with any cold or flu symptom who had been in the same building as any of the patients.

    I also have seen some speculation or at least implication that the RoK index case may have a strain somehow more virulent than is normal. While possible, I'm fairly convinced a major factor was the time it took the illness to be diagnosed at four separate health care facilities, lack of general infectious disease precautions before then and crowding.

    It's generally a good idea to treat every such illness, including suspected seasonal flu at least seriously enough to avoid spreading or exposing one's self to it unnecessarily, particularly in hospitals and clinics where there are people already sufficiently ill for a run of the mill cold or flu to present a more serious danger. Especially good advice in any country having international travel with a country seeing an outbreak of a particularly dangerous disease. You don't have to assume the worst to take reasonable precautions if they are adequate both to reduce exposure to the serious disease and a more commonplace one likely still to ruin somebody's week.

    Sorry for the rambling, I have not had enough sleep.
    Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice - Grey's Law.
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  7. #7
    reclinite automaton canid's Avatar
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    This should go a little way toward settling fears in Korea: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20..._134301488.htm

    They appear to have 41 cases and 4 deaths, confirmed or otherwise, with what is now reported to be about 3000 contacts being monitored and quarantined.

    1 of those cases is a Korean airman at Osan Airbase and they seem to be just as liberal about isolating his contacts.
    Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice - Grey's Law.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    To see what's going on in my knife shop check out CanidArmory on Youtube or on Facebook.

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