Thinking About Fuel

[Geek]

If you can fathom them, what would they be?

We've seen some very large scale power outages that were resolved in relatively short order. Weeks in some severe cases. Power companies, communications companies, petroleum companies, food companies, transportation companies, et. al., are going to do their very best to get things back to normal as quickly as possible. They have money at stake.

The example of an EMP is the most obvious one due to the assortment of novels based on that idea. However, I have concluded that regardless of the type of disaster our power grid is aging and becoming steadily more fragile. The government is seriously considering shutting off coal, which would take 15% of the generating capacity offline. Toss in another Hurricane Sandy circa 2016 and we could be faced with a northeast blackout lasting longer than anything we have seen to date, particularly if it takes out a couple of the local nuclear plants. An earthquake in a highly populated area, e.g. Manhattan could be another mess. After 9/11 the idea of a dirty bomb in Manhattan seems easy enough to imagine.

Fukushima took out a wide area without being a countrywide or worldwide apocalypse and the idea of a similarly scaled disaster somewhere in the US is easy enough to imagine. Then of course there is the flu, . . .

I hate to be depressing with this stuff, but from my experience when things go really wrong is when multiple things go wrong at the same time. I read a novel recently based on the idea of two Hurricanes hitting a few weeks apart. The two Hurricanes were sort of like Katrina and Sandy happening in the same season and they manage to severely damage refineries on both the Gulf Coast and the East Coast. Then a war in the middle east hits supply coming from there. The loss of so much energy infrastructure all at once results in a Depression like economic collapse.

Maybe after being in the WTC on 9/11 my imagination has become overactive but I think the power grid is not being maintained or protected and it is vulnerable and I don't think I am adequately prepared.

[hunter63]

If it's a true TEOTWAWKI, I'm thinking more than just fuel will be at a premium...parts, batteries, tires, screws/bolts, and lubrication is also nessessary. as well as parts for lanterns, stoves....clothing, shoes boots...etc...... all the stuff you go to the store for.

[Geek]

If it's a true TEOTWAWKI, I'm thinking more than just fuel will be at a premium...parts, batteries, tires, screws/bolts, and lubrication is also nessessary. as well as parts for lanterns, stoves....clothing, shoes boots...etc...... all the stuff you go to the store for.

Too true, but the OP brought up fuel. We could easily have a thread on each of the items you mention and on some of them I think we have.

[Rick]

KY - I'll leave you with the words of Anthony D'Angelo. "If you have time to whine and complain about something then you have the time to do something about it." So go do something about it besides whine at me.

[Rick]

Geek - I don't know if I'd agree that the grid is becoming more fragile. That might be true in some areas. The companies I'm familiar with have done a pretty admirable job of upgrading lines and sub-stations. Around here a good portion of that has been growth of infrastructure and locally we've been converting to wind power. I have a nephew that has spent a lot of years working in the switch centers for the national grid and he seems to have a pretty high opinion of the grid overall. Certainly there are security vulnerabilities there. As I say, that could be true in some places.

In any case, all the items you mentioned are short term events I think. Something less than a few weeks recovery time. Except for pandemic. That one is fairly high on my list. I just don't think any of them take us back to the stone age. All are recoverable. The area we seem to be the most vulnerable, in my opinion, is refinery capacity. Hopefully, we can get a national energy policy on the board and start changing how we handle crude and national gas.

All in all, you made to very good points.

[hunter63]

Too true, but the OP brought up fuel. We could easily have a thread on each of the items you mention and on some of them I think we have.

Granted, didn't mean to derail the OP....just the fact that it took me some time and trip to the spark plug store yesterday, just to get my mower running....plenty of fuel , fresh at that, reminded me of a balanced approach.

[Davidlastink]

I might have to get me a new mower myself the one I have might just be turned into a mulcher.

As far as the methane goes I was half serious there.