Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 39

Thread: What SHTF scenarios do you anticipate?

  1. #1
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    West Bragg Creek, Alberta
    Posts
    1,839

    Default What SHTF scenarios do you anticipate?

    Question from another site:

    I'm not trying to be rude -- I'm genuinely curious, and trying to understand things better.

    There are a lot of threads on this forum about how to prepare, but nobody's saying much about what situation/s they're preparing for. Obviously, part of that has to do with the fact that a lot of the same preparations would be useful for a variety of different events. But still, there have to be specific scenarios that you're anticipating: natural disasters that are common to your area, local terrorist or military targets, specific economic issues, etc.

    So tell me, what scenarios do you anticipate that would require the kind of survivalist preparations you're currently making?

    Are you more worried about natural disasters (and the poor management that often follows) or human-initiated disasters?

    Do you think it's only a matter of time before you'll have to bug-out or bug-in, or do you make these preparations with the idea that you'll probably never have to use them?

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------


  2. #2
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Central Indiana
    Posts
    58,832

    Default

    I plan for a natural or man made disaster. I'll give you a list and the definitions because it's part of my overall family disaster plan:

    Biological Threat: A biological attack is the deliberate release of germs or other biological substances that can make you sick. Many agents must be inhaled, enter through a cut in the skin or be eaten to make you sick. Some biological agents, such as anthrax, do not cause contagious diseases. Others, like the smallpox virus, can result in diseases you can catch from other people.

    Chemical Threat: A chemical attack is the deliberate release of a toxic gas, liquid or solid that can poison people and the environment.

    Dam Failure: A dam failure or levee breach is a catastrophic event characterized by the sudden, rapid, and uncontrolled release of impounded water.

    Earthquakes: An earthquake is the sudden, rapid shaking of the Earth, caused by the breaking and shifting of subterranean rock.

    Explosion: A release of mechanical, chemical or nuclear energy in a sudden and often violent manner with the generation of high temperature and usually with the release of gases.

    Extreme Heat: An extended period of high temperatures often accompanied by high humidity.

    Fire: A state, process or instance of combustion in which fuel or other material is ignited and combined with oxygen, giving off light, heat, and flame.

    Flood: Refers to the overflowing of normally dry areas, often after heavy rains. Flood is usually applied to the overflow of a great body of water, as, for example, a river, although it may refer to any water that overflows an area.

    Hazardous Material: Any substance or mixture of substances having properties capable of producing adverse effects on the health and safety or the environment of a human being.

    Hurricane: A severe tropical storm that forms in the southern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

    Influenza Pandemic: A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza A virus emerges for which there is little or no known immunity in the human population and the virus begins to cause serious illness and then spreads easily person-to-person worldwide.

    Landslide/Debris Flow: Landslides, also known as mudslides and debris flows, are the downward falling or sliding of a mass of soil, detritus or rock on or from a steep slope. They can be caused by a variety of factors including earthquakes, storms, and fires.

    Nuclear Threat: An explosion with intense light and heat, a damaging pressure wave and widespread radioactive material that can contaminate the air, water and ground surfaces for miles around. An event typically recognized with an attack by a foreign power.

    Nuclear Power Plant Emergency: An accident comprised by the release of radioactive material from the plant into the environment, usually characterized by a plume (cloud-like formation) of radioactive gases and particles. The major hazards to people in the vicinity of the plume are radiation exposure to the body from the cloud and particles deposited on the ground, inhalation of radioactive materials, and ingestion of radioactive materials.

    There are two “emergency planning zones” in the event of an accident. One zone covers an area within a 10-mile radius of the plant, where it is possible that people could be harmed by direct radiation exposure. The second zone covers a broader area, usually up to a 50-mile radius from the plant, where radioactive materials could contaminate water supplies, food crops, and livestock.

    Radiation Threat: A radiation threat, commonly referred to as a "dirty bomb" or radiological dispersion device (RDD)", is the use of common explosives to spread radioactive materials over a targeted area. It is not a nuclear blast. The force of the explosion and radioactive contamination will be more localized.

    Terrorism: The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence by a person or an organized group against people or property with the intention of intimidating or coercing societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons.

    Thunderstorm: A transient storm of lightning and thunder, usually with rain and gusty winds, sometimes with hail or snow, produced by cumulonimbus clouds.

    Tornado: A localized, violently destructive windstorm occurring over land, esp. in the Mid-West, and characterized by a long, funnel-shaped cloud extending toward the ground and made visible by condensation and debris.

    Tsunami: Tsunamis, also known as seismic sea waves, are enormous waves caused by an underground disturbance such as an earthquake or volcanic eruption. They can move hundreds of miles per hour and hit land with waves topping 100 feet in height.

    Volcano: A vent in the earth's crust through which lava, steam, ashes, etc., are expelled, either continuously or at irregular intervals.

    Wildfire: Any large fire that spreads rapidly and is hard to extinguish.

    Winter Storm or Extreme Cold: a severe winter condition characterized by low temperatures, strong winds, and heavy blowing snow.

    Each of these threats is identified, evaluated and ranked as part of my family's written response plan.

    Last edited by Rick; 08-19-2009 at 07:17 AM.
    Tracks Across the High Plains...Death on the Bombay Line...A Touch of Death and Mayhem...Dead Rock...The Griswald Mine Boys...All On Amazon Books.

  3. #3
    hunter-gatherer Canadian-guerilla's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    ontario-canada
    Posts
    466

    Default

    IMO
    i think a financial/economic collapse is most likely

    although a lot is happening over in the middle east right now

    and there's always the " surprise " false flag
    .
    Knowledge without experience is just information


    there are two types of wild food enthusiasts,
    one picks for enjoyment of adding something to a meal,
    and the second is the person who lives mostly on ( wild ) edibles

    Lydia

  4. #4
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Central Indiana
    Posts
    58,832

    Default

    I guess I didn't answer all your questions.

    Bug in or out? I'd bug in unless I was forced to evacuate. Chemical spin, meth lab, etc.
    Do you think it's a matter of time: You bet. With that many possibilities something is bound to happen.
    Tracks Across the High Plains...Death on the Bombay Line...A Touch of Death and Mayhem...Dead Rock...The Griswald Mine Boys...All On Amazon Books.

  5. #5
    Banned
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    West Bragg Creek, Alberta
    Posts
    1,839

    Default

    As most of you all know, I also believe a total world wide economical disaster will occur in the very near future. Could be caused by most of what Rick has posted. At the same time, I have planned as to not ever having to use my preparations, living my life without fear or reservations.

  6. #6
    Super Moderator crashdive123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    North Florida
    Posts
    44,846

    Default

    Good question Bragg. For me it started with preparations for natural disasters. While in the Navy I helped clean up after Typhoon Pamela hit Guam, saw the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew, and had the eruption of Mt. St. Helens totally mess up an outing to Spirit Lake. Since I live in an area that is prone to weather extremes I prepared for two scenarios. Bug In (preferred) and Bug Out. The potential level of devastation will be the determining factor in what I do. Plans include securing the homestead, immediate needs and long term needs. As you point out, depending on someone or something for your survival may be disastrous.

    Since I live near 3 military bases, NFL venue and large tourist destination I also plan for human initiated disasters. Food and supplies to last for a minimum of 3 to 6 months. The ability to defend my family.

    My plan is constantly evolving. One of the reasons I’m here.
    Can't Means Won't

    My Youtube Channel

  7. #7
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Central Indiana
    Posts
    58,832

    Default

    Bragg - One of the things folks in the U.S. underestimate are the number of nuclear reactors in the country. And they don't realize that most are approaching 30 years old. They've had a remarkable safety record but it only takes one accident. Here's a map for the nuclear reactors world wide and remember, prevailing winds in the U.S. are west to east:

    http://www.insc.anl.gov/pwrmaps/map/world_map.php

    Click on a dot to learn more about that reactor.

    I think at last count there were 13 in Illinois that are "upwind" from me.
    Tracks Across the High Plains...Death on the Bombay Line...A Touch of Death and Mayhem...Dead Rock...The Griswald Mine Boys...All On Amazon Books.

  8. #8
    Senior Member wareagle69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    northern ontario
    Posts
    4,201

    Default

    i started training just in case i ever had to escape prison someday thats a true shtf scenario

  9. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Posts
    644

    Default You short on ammo?

    Quote Originally Posted by wareagle69 View Post
    i started training just in case i ever had to escape prison someday thats a true shtf scenario
    You short on ammo, that is the only reason I can see for going to prison. I don't break the law so I don't fear police. If they come for me it's gonna be a long day all round.

  10. #10

    Default Rick---nice list

    I really enjoyed rick's post and have to say there are a few on there I didn't think of. I guess that is why I am here.

    Thanks for putting a list of "potential problems" out there for me to see and understand, most importantly to start thinking about.

  11. #11

    Default

    The first 2 on my list to plans for are: Not Loosing my reading glasses or false teeth.

    After that, it is what ever the God of your choice chooses to throw at me.

    My primary concerns start with water. Then shelter. Then food. No matter what comes my way, I want those 3 covered and I do not want to stand around waiting for anyone to cover them for me.

    Don
    No one knows more about a task then the person that does it, Practice makes perfect!

  12. #12
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Central Indiana
    Posts
    58,832

    Default

    AD - Folks seem to think they can grab their BOB for any emergency and go but more likely than not that won't be the case. Kids will be in school, the better half at work or maybe even on the road somewhere. They overlook an essential element and that's a communication plan. The only time that won't be a problem is if the evacuation is preplanned such as a hurricane. The link I shared above is for a family disaster plan that includes a com. plan as well as a personal evaluation for each family member and their skill sets as well as an evaluation on your home. It's 60 pages but most of that is just plugging in your information. I keep a written plan on file at home, practice it and update it as needed. If a disaster happens while everyone is here or if they are scattered around we know where we are going and how to communicate until we are linked up again.
    Tracks Across the High Plains...Death on the Bombay Line...A Touch of Death and Mayhem...Dead Rock...The Griswald Mine Boys...All On Amazon Books.

  13. #13
    Tracker Beo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio (Dunlap's Station)
    Posts
    4,017
    Blog Entries
    40

    Default

    Take'um as they come, head on. Have always made it.
    There is no greater solitude than that of the Tracker in the forest, unless perhaps it's that of the wolf in the wilderness.

  14. #14
    missing in action trax's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    yonder
    Posts
    6,809

    Default

    That was quite a list Richard. I'd like to point out that you left out the most important one though, and I'm more than a little disappointed!

    Failure of a specific west coast mushroom crop! Hello??? talk about my nightmares coming to life....yeeesh....
    some fella confronted me the other day and asked "What's your problem?" So I told him, "I don't have a problem I am a problem"

  15. #15
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Central Indiana
    Posts
    58,832

    Default

    Trax - I've made a secret deal with Xenu. I traded the earth for a lifetime of morels.
    Tracks Across the High Plains...Death on the Bombay Line...A Touch of Death and Mayhem...Dead Rock...The Griswald Mine Boys...All On Amazon Books.

  16. #16
    missing in action trax's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    yonder
    Posts
    6,809

    Default

    You fool!!! Well, canid will happy, but those are definitely not the 'shrooms I seek.
    some fella confronted me the other day and asked "What's your problem?" So I told him, "I don't have a problem I am a problem"

  17. #17
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Central Indiana
    Posts
    58,832

    Default

    Well, this thread certainly turned out to be timely. I suppose you've all seen the news about the reactors being shut down in Florida. Now they just have to get Miami back on power.

    http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...5_FORTUNE5.htm

    What scenarios to you anticipate?
    Tracks Across the High Plains...Death on the Bombay Line...A Touch of Death and Mayhem...Dead Rock...The Griswald Mine Boys...All On Amazon Books.

  18. #18
    Super Moderator crashdive123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    North Florida
    Posts
    44,846

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hopeak View Post
    Trust Me I am your Government, There is not DANGER.......We would never stroke you.

    Well the good new that with global warming they will be just fine. A little sweaty but just fine.
    Global Warming? Might want to re-think that. http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature...ticle10866.htm
    Can't Means Won't

    My Youtube Channel

  19. #19
    Administrator Rick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Central Indiana
    Posts
    58,832

    Default

    Well crap!! I just bought a ton of Bermuda shorts. You think I take them back for a refund?
    Tracks Across the High Plains...Death on the Bombay Line...A Touch of Death and Mayhem...Dead Rock...The Griswald Mine Boys...All On Amazon Books.

  20. #20
    Senior Member ATough's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    205

    Default

    First of, Rick that is a very thorough List of things you prepare for.

    second, I prepare for natural disasters according to my location, such as hurricane, Tornado, and flood.
    Jesus is my king.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •