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Rick
03-13-2009, 08:56 AM
Rebel's post on Scenario #999 got me to thinking about the perils of bugging out. I'm not posting this in defense of Bugging In but simply to give some food for thought for those of you thinking about Bugging Out. Things all of us might think about even if we prefer to Bug In.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2071/2110167787_317aa247ed.jpg

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_6I55JhQD4K4/SMw4F62O9QI/AAAAAAAAAuY/tdaJN1QIURY/s400/NoGas2.jpg

http://www.thedailygreen.com/cm/thedailygreen/images/VF/oil-embargo-sign-lg.jpg

http://www.pageonekentucky.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/pricegouging2.jpg

http://images.encarta.msn.com/xrefmedia/sharemed/targets/images/pho/t049/T049147A.jpg

http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Third_Party_Photo/2006/03/18/1142703465_2894.jpg

Alpine_Sapper
03-13-2009, 10:52 AM
I've been giving this some thought as well. I, personally, don't care if I have to shelter in place or bug out, I'm prepared to do either as the situation dictates. imho selecting a bug out or bug in as your exclusive option is about as retarded as NOT preparing AT ALL.

I discussed the scenario Rebel proposed with TDW and we both agreed that avoiding I35 was probably the best bet, that heading straight south toward Joplin, MO was probably a better idea, ensuring that if you had to go cross country you could travel between I35 and I40 ( or 44, don't remember which atm) all the way down to the E-W interstate passing through Joplin. At that point you'd probably be far enough away from KS that you could get back on the highway. With the evacuation of Kansas CIty the freeway egress points are going to be PACKED. However, I do drive an off-road vehicle that's not stock, so I should be ok for a "rural" route out of KS, but then, what about gas? I'm looking at putting back enough of the 5gal. jerry cans to fill my truck once for just that purpose, but with the lifespan of petrol it's imperative that that stock get rotated, at least once a month imho.

The great thing about this scenario is that when outfitting my vehicle I had entertainment for the kids as a requirement. Not only did I get the 7' touch screens for the front and back, I used the ideas at mp3car.com and put a 2.0ghz PC in my vehicle. It's used for movies, music, web-surfing on the road, etc. etc. It's also used for GPS. It's kind of an all in one system I built myself. Not difficult at all. The great thing is that the maps I used are static, and while they may be slightly out of date in a bug out scenario if you haven't updated recently, you'll still have valid data of things like major ravines or other obstacles your vehicle will have to go around for traveling cross country.

crashdive123
03-13-2009, 11:33 AM
Good posts. I too am a bug in kind of guy, but prepared to leave is needed. The biggest part of leaving is in the planning. While the route (and alternatives) is extremely important, so is the timing (when possible). For things like hurricanes, where you have plenty of advanced warning leaving early may be the difference between taking a trip or becoming a victim. Those pictures that Rick posted say a lot. Waiting too long you will most likely find yourself stuck in traffic - not just for a few hours, but more likely a day or two. Gas will not be available. Look at recent evacuations where people waited. No gas, no rooms available so families rode out the weather on the side of the interstate along with scores of others. Have a plan - part of that plan needs to be the when to leave.

Dennis K.
03-13-2009, 11:37 AM
Good Observations, Rick. I agree with Alpine Sapper, that one should be prepared for both Bug-Out, and Hunker-Down. I also think that given your location, one of those will take priority.
I also think it is vitally important that you take into account the traffic jams as part of a Bug-Out Plan.

I ask myself questions w/ regard to Bug-Outs:

1. Assume that all major thoroughfares are jammed. Can I:

a. Hole up until The roads are clear?
b. Prepare in advance so that I can get out either with or before the masses?
c. Have several alternate routes out of the city?
2. How are the thoroughfares blocked?

- National Guard & Law enforcement?
- Impassable due to damage?
- Roving Zombie Hordes?
3. Can I go against the flow of traffic?

- Everyone's headed South, can I go North?
4. If I Bug-In, am I then stuck there?

- NG or LE closes roads, restricts movement (Think Gaza Strip)
- Whatever the Scenario is, would I be trapped? Like stuck on Galveston Island if the bridges were damaged?
5. Can I get to my Family? or, Can they get to me?

6. Will my escape route get me trapped somewhere? Like on an elevated interstate, w/ no exits. Or a downtown freeway with walls on all sides (we have one here in Dallas called "The Canyon.")

My whole point is that Buggin' Out is NOT as easy as just grabbing your go-bag and heading out the door. If you live in a populated area and an evac order is given, Imagine the worst traffic jam you've ever sat through. Then imagine all the things that would make it worse. Then add panic.

Most cities have limited access - A few major thoroughfares. Dallas has a river to cross. Manhattan is an island. Coastal cities have at least one direction that you can not go unless you have a boat.
The best survival kit in the world won't do you any good if you can't get out because of traffic. Then, when your vehicle runs out of gas and you have to abandon it, you will have lost a major component of your bug-out plan.
What about weather? The Rita Evacuees that got stuck on the interstate - Massive heat & humidity. No water to be bought.

Buggin' in sounds better and better all the time.

But, as always, it depends on the scenario. A Cat 5 hurricane headed for your house? Run away. But have a plan.

Rick
03-13-2009, 01:52 PM
I've also considered other "roads". There is nothing that says you can't use a railroad track as a road...using common sense of course. Rails to Trails, fire roads, abandoned rail property, even private roads can serve as alternatives. Sometimes all that's needed is a set of lock cutters. If the situation were extreme I'd have no reservations in trespassing state property or some industrial complex if it meant keeping my family safe.

Dennis - Add in hot tempers and fear to your great list above.

Good stuff Alpine - you need to make those considerations well in advance. Even Hopeak needs to figure out how he'd get out of Anchorage if he's there on his monthly migration and Redoubt decides to burp.:ohmy:

JRR
03-13-2009, 02:36 PM
I've also considered other "roads".


My bugout vehicle is a boat. Much easier to go around any traffic jams. :sailor:

grundle
03-13-2009, 03:40 PM
Consider driving a diesel. You can improvise fuel more readily than with a standard gasoline engine. You have a longer vehicle life if gas "runs out".

I personally would stay away from I-35 and I-70 (being a KC native). KC is sprawling and there are tons lesser traffic exits. I would go that way. Also, being primarily farm/grazing land the entire state is gridded up pretty nicely with farm access roads and minor highways for rural access. It would be easy to traverse the state unimpeded without ever touching a major interstate.

Revelation1412
03-13-2009, 03:55 PM
Considering what we have been seeing in the news lately I am not sure that there is too much reason for optimism.

chiangmaimav
03-13-2009, 07:02 PM
In a way I already bugged out when I moved to Thailand. Here I have 2 homes. One is a modern bungalow in Chiang Mai, where I have to buy everything I need like I did in the states. The other one is a self-sufficient farm in Nakhon Sawan, where I can bug out if I have to. Or maybe that one is bug in. I am not really sure about which is which.

Rick
03-13-2009, 09:43 PM
Considering what we have been seeing in the news lately I am not sure that there is too much reason for optimism.

Really? Stocks have been rallying all week. The DOW is above 7200. Dare I say it? Monday should be interesting.

endurance
03-14-2009, 12:19 AM
I think some of my tendency toward bugging in is that's what I'm forced to respond to our most common natural hazard anyway: severe winter storms. I wonder to what degree the tendency to bug out or bug in is affected by where folks grew up and what type of disasters they most commonly faced as a kid? It makes sense that if you live on the coast, sticking around home is not condusive to survival. While living in Colorado, if you decided to bug out everytime a blizzard struck, you'd be putting yourself at much higher risk than if you'd stay home.

I think also my local climate impacts my desire to stay or go. If I did bug out in the middle of the winter, staying warm becomes a higher priority than all others. If I'm at home, I can relax and only have to react if something odd happens that needs attending to (like a power outage, excessive snowfall that demands shoveling off my roof, etc.).

Rick
03-14-2009, 06:50 AM
I think there is a lot of truth in your post, Endurance. I believe the same thing. My most likely threat will come from tornado or blizzard or extended power outage so bugging in only seems logical to me. I really don't put a lot of stock in economic melt down or civil anarchy type stuff but I do have a BOB because you never know when the local meth lab will be uncovered or a chlorine spill at the local pool might drift in your direction.