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View Full Version : Gold or silver (any precious metal really), how much is it really worth when SHTF?



Chad3098
02-27-2012, 06:13 PM
I had a conversation/debate with a friend of mine about the usefulness of gold/silver in a SHTF senario (economic collapse particularly). My standpoint was that it is not really useful, so therefore lacks value to the average person during a crisis. I think bullets, gas, food, things of that nature will have much more value. He was completely against that idea saying that it will being used as tender (gold, silver). We ended up agreeing to disagree on most of it, but I agreed that only years after the SHTF having gold will be useful. I just felt my money is better spent investing in things that has practical use.

I was just wondering what everyone else thought since most of you know more about this than myself.

Rick
02-27-2012, 06:27 PM
I tend not to think about it since economic collapse isn't on the radar screen.

hunter63
02-27-2012, 08:31 PM
A well balanced prep would involve some sort of long term precious metals....hard to make change?
Now my first line of thought.

I'm thinking that plain old cash would still be excepted to have value in the short term.

Barter supplies would be valuable as well.......

Kinda one of those, "not all your eggs in one basket thing......"

SARKY
02-27-2012, 08:54 PM
Rick, I have to ask...... Is anything on your radar screen???

Gold or silver or any other precious metal has real value in a run away/hyper inflation scenario, but not in a SHTF scenario. I've seen some people are buying diamonds. Diamonds are extremely over priced. It is one of the most common gems on the planet and in a hyper inflation scenario they will lose their value. In the beginning of any event the paper dollar will have value, that value will wane in a very short time as inflation accelerates until people recognize that paper money has NO intrinsic value.

Rick
02-27-2012, 09:00 PM
Tornadoes, fire, flood, pandemic, someone mentioned asteroid the other day so I tacked that on. Volcanoes, earthquakes, nuclear accident, chemical spill and industrial accident. That's most of the stuff that will REALLY happen around here. All that other hocus pocus is just make believe. Zombies.....pffft.

You guys just don't understand. Nothing has intrinsic value unless two people agree that it does. Gold is the only commodity that the U.S. govenment has actually devalued and yet folks hail it as the pancea. Okay, fine. Send all that dirty useless money to me. If S really HTF intrinsic value will be in what people can eat and drink and shoot. Not in shiny baubles.

Chad3098
02-27-2012, 10:16 PM
Tornadoes, fire, flood, pandemic, someone mentioned asteroid the other day so I tacked that on. Volcanoes, earthquakes, nuclear accident, chemical spill and industrial accident. That's most of the stuff that will REALLY happen around here. All that other hocus pocus is just make believe. Zombies.....pffft.

You guys just don't understand. Nothing has intrinsic value unless two people agree that it does. Gold is the only commodity that the U.S. govenment has actually devalued and yet folks hail it as the pancea. Okay, fine. Send all that dirty useless money to me. If S really HTF intrinsic value will be in what people can eat and drink and shoot. Not in shiny baubles.

couldn't agree more. Well, except zombies part.....

your_comforting_company
02-27-2012, 11:34 PM
You guys just don't understand. Nothing has intrinsic value unless two people agree that it does. Gold is the only commodity that the U.S. govenment has actually devalued and yet folks hail it as the pancea. Okay, fine. Send all that dirty useless money to me. If S really HTF intrinsic value will be in what people can eat and drink and shoot. Not in shiny baubles.

This is my line of thinking as well. Gold is too soft by itself to make even a sharp edge. Useless really, and not worth anything in barter with me. Iron and steel.. something useful. I don't necessarily agree that economic collapse isn't on the radar. It really wouldn't be that hard to cripple the infrastructure of this greatly divided nation. I say let them have their shiny things. My teeth ain't good enough to chew up diamonds and gold. I think gunpowder and lead is a better investment.

natertot
02-28-2012, 12:14 AM
Gold/Silver always has a value of sort no matter what. It's value strictly depends on what a person will pay for it. If you are in a hyperinflation crisis, gold/silver will do you better as a currency then the paper that has since become useless. It will also serve you better if you leave the country to escape the crisis. If you are surrounded by people who are starving, thirsty, and in need of medical care, chances are they will turn down all the G/S you have for a few meals, drinks, shower and a physicians exam.

A recent example, look a Katrina in Southern LA. People with boats were turning down those offering cash for rescue and accepting those who had food, water and blankets.

Cast-Iron
02-28-2012, 12:33 AM
I think you're both correct. I've been told the US federal reserve note has an intrinsic value of 4 btu's when lit. In a worldwide SHTF scenario I wouldn't have much use for the paper currency of any nation. With an interruption of industry, the goods you had the foresight to stash would carry more value in a barter system as people would be addressing their immediate needs for survival. As a new norm begins to emerge you would likely see a greater need for a more efficient means of commerce which would then be based on something with traditional intrinsic value like precious metals.

el-amigo
02-28-2012, 02:08 AM
Okay, and do you have any forecasts for Europe? :) We had toxic red mud (AL) and cyanide (CN) spill in our rivers lately.

Rick
02-28-2012, 08:39 AM
If you are in a hyperinflation crisis, gold/silver will do you better as a currency then the paper that has since become useless.

Hyperinflation almost always occurs after a war. It doesn't have to be but historically that's been the case. In the U.S. we saw this after the Revolutionary War and again after the Civil War most notably with southern currency and to a lesser degree with U.S. currency. Likewise, numerous countries have suffered hyperinflation and in almost all cases gold and silver were not the trade of choice. Barter typically fills the void of fiat money, which of course is nothing more than a convenient form of barter.

wholsomback
02-28-2012, 10:33 AM
Well we don't have to worry to much about useable metals because after they run out of gas just get your solar powered sawsaw and get what you want.On the topic of money,well,in some of the most recent conflicts,clothing ,food,and water were more valuable than anything so investments like cash,gold ,silver and diamonds might help in short term SHTF senarios,the long term will probably be meds,food and other creature comforts that can be traded.Oh and on the topic of bullets,a 22 is probably the best bullets to get because alot can be held in a small area,there report is less noticable to others and they can fill your belly with pot meat.Ya now getting a sparrow with a 7mm might not be prudent and might bring unfiendly zombies to your door.:taz:

"snicker"

Wildthang
02-28-2012, 02:41 PM
Well we don't have to worry to much about useable metals because after they run out of gas just get your solar powered sawsaw and get what you want.On the topic of money,well,in some of the most recent conflicts,clothing ,food,and water were more valuable than anything so investments like cash,gold ,silver and diamonds might help in short term SHTF senarios,the long term will probably be meds,food and other creature comforts that can be traded.Oh and on the topic of bullets,a 22 is probably the best bullets to get because alot can be held in a small area,there report is less noticable to others and they can fill your belly with pot meat.Ya now getting a sparrow with a 7mm might not be prudent and might bring unfiendly zombies to your door.:taz:

"snicker"

Right on bwudda! I absolutely agree! I am saving some money for after the SHTF just to get back into normal financial conditions. But I am also storing plenty of .22 ammo, as well as .223 just for barter. Gold will only be something the rich and secure will be able to use in a total economic collapse, and will be worth nothing to the average surviving family's.
I may keep a certain ammount of gold just to diversify my savings but I am not depending on it whatever to help me survive a disater, or total breakdown of civilization.

finallyME
02-28-2012, 03:23 PM
Kinda one of those, "not all your eggs in one basket thing......"

Best advice ever.

Sparky93
02-28-2012, 08:19 PM
Good thing to buy as an investment, but in a SHTF scenario scrap steel would be a better thing to have. But gold through history has always had value.... just my 2 cents...

hunter63
02-28-2012, 08:30 PM
I guess I just have a logistics problem with precious metals....as portrayed many times, as golds a silver coins, bars etc.......
So you are bugging out and have your "wealth" or emergency funds in... say gold coins, smallest 1/2 ounce worth about $800 bucks (now you have to figure per SHTF value vs today).

Well, it time to stop for fuel, beer and sandwiches (my type of bug out), guy says cash no good, but will take a 1/4 ounce of gold, (All I got in 1/2 ounce) or 4 quarts of booze (you didn't bring any)....dude says no change...take it or leave it....so looking down the barrel of his partners EBR, you pay the guy and move on.....wishing you would have diversified.

Anyone given any thought to the term "value?" dealing with precious metals or gems?

Rick
02-28-2012, 08:31 PM
Not so my dear Sparky. Executive Order 6102 confiscated all the gold in the U.S. (except for rare coins) in 1933 at the price of $20.57 an ounce. As soon as the confiscation was complete the government arbitrarily raised the price to $35 an ounce. Buy low sell high or just set your own price.

Sparky93
02-28-2012, 08:36 PM
Not so my dear Sparky. Executive Order 6102 confiscated all the gold in the U.S. (except for rare coins) in 1933 at the price of $20.57 an ounce. As soon as the confiscation was complete the government arbitrarily raised the price to $35 an ounce. Buy low sell high or just set your own price.

It was still worth $20.57 lol.... That's not nothing, imagine if you had bought 10 oz. for 350 bucks and passed it down to your family what they would have today....

Rick
02-28-2012, 08:45 PM
The point is you had to give it up for a lower price. Then the gov't pushed the price up. It's sort of like them tellin' you that you have to sell your car to them for $100 then they sell it for $1000.00.

kyratshooter
02-28-2012, 09:03 PM
It was still worth $20.57 lol.... That's not nothing, imagine if you had bought 10 oz. for 350 bucks and passed it down to your family what they would have today....

Sparky you do not seem to understand.

The government DECLARED the price to be 20.57. It had been $29 when they made the declaration.

As soon as they confiscated all the gold in private hands they DECLARED the price to be $35.

It was illigal for a private citizen to own bullion. I think the fine was $10,000/10 years in prison.

So your gold was not STILL worth $20.57, because you had no gold. You had been forced to sell everything you had at $9 below market, then the government mandated a higher market price for what they had just confiscated.

It was illigal for a citizen to own gold bullion until around 1980.

Yes, they can do this with the stroke of a pen by executive order.

Wildthang
02-28-2012, 09:08 PM
Well I wouldn't bug out with it, and would just leave it in a safe buried place. If I bug out I'm takin ammo, food and water not gold. I am going to buy about 20K in gold just in case we all survive whatever happens, and sell it if money ever returns to a good value. But I will keep a healthy stash of money as well, and a crap load of ammo which will probably be worth more than most other things.
Now Hunter, what is the shelf life on those eggs in a basket, I might keep some of those too?:eek2:

hunter63
02-28-2012, 09:13 PM
The three rules....
Don't put all your eggs in one basket..
Don't count you chickens before that hatch...
Don't mess with the old guy when he's been drinkin'

Oh yeah, and never go anywhere with out a knife.........(Gibbs rule number 9)

kyratshooter
02-28-2012, 10:13 PM
The three rules....
Don't put all your eggs in one basket..
Don't count you chickens before that hatch...
Don't mess with the old guy when he's been drinkin'

Oh yeah, and never go anywhere with out a knife.........(Gibbs rule number 9)

#5 Never take a knife to a gunfight.

And in 1873 a $20 gold piece would by a new in the box mint condition Colt SSA. It still will today.

CoryD
03-03-2012, 07:06 PM
I kinda agree with Rick. I think of it like this. I cant eat gold, I cant get gold to keep the rain off my back, I cant drink gold. Gold wont get me from point a to point b. The argument could be made that you could buy what you need with gold, but thats assuming that you are near a person who will accept gold as a form of payment and they have what you need. I myself wouldnt accept gold for anything in a SHTF situation, mainly because of what I said above.

Winter
03-03-2012, 11:18 PM
If TSHTF I would not give you a cup of sugar for a gold ring, unless it was my wife's birthday and the ring fit her.

vahtryn
03-04-2012, 08:23 AM
Let's take the whole precious metal thing to it's base. For some odd reason, probably due to rarity with our ancestors, these metals cost more because they were harder to find than say iron. Silver and gold are more malleable than iron and pretty much more useless for every day application. Shine them up and people suddenly want them. There's them basics.

We are in the start of an economic failure. China owns pretty much all of our debt and happens to be buying gold like crazy. Guess where that leaves us? At the moment nowhere. Though if you follow Europe is going absolutely bankrupt. Every nation owes each other stupid amounts of money and it's all a circle (taking out what I'd normally say) way of passing loot around.

Now that's Europe, the great white power of the world. It'll be ew-scrayed very soon. Next on the chopping block is 'merica. No way around it folks. We're already there.

The only reason I invest in junk silver is because it's cheap, "value" will continue to increase and I'm going to buy my land outright and forgo the mortgage that messed up so many other people. If you truly want to get out of this burden we're put on then we should go to a gold standard and not what is printed onto paper.

I'd much rather barter for goods and services than deal in money. I'd also much rather just pay in cash than use your bank card or cheques and pay cash value. Then again I may be a lunatic.

Rick
03-04-2012, 10:04 AM
I won't say you're a lunatic but your conclusions aren't based in fact. If America were not still a good investment then no one would be investing in us. The fact that they are says we have a bright future. It doesn't matter if China owns X building in the U.S. they bought it as an investment. If they thought America was on the brink of ruin why would they buy it? They can't take it to China. Instead, they want the rent income and the future profits if they sell it. Expand that analogy to whatever you choose but that's a simply explanation as to why they invest in us. Whether it is real estate, corporations, intellectual property or good old greenbacks they only invest in us because they see we have a future. By the way, everyone clamors about China but guess who holds as much investment in the U.S. as China? We do. It's called U.S. Savings Bonds along with trusts and estates invested in the U.S.. $1.107 trillion vs. China's $1.132 trillion followed by Japan at 1.038 trillion. So China does not hold the lion's share of investment in the U.S. Not by a long shot.

Obviously, we have an enormous debt load. That has to be dealt with and it's going to be painful. There is no way around it. My guess is nothing of consequence will be done toward the debt in the next administration. But after the election in 2016 some serious cost cutting and tax increases will have to occur in order to address the debt, which Congress will because they will have to. They actually do work together when things have to get done. You just have to hold their feet to the fire for them to work together, which is a shame. The bit of good news in that is everyone has a window to pay down their personal debt and increase their cash reserves in advance of increased taxes.

LowKey
03-04-2012, 08:46 PM
On the subject of confiscating gold except for rare coins, there was some joking the other day on talk radio that instead of bullion the guy was going to invest in women's jewelry. Because he knows that the Government wouldn't dare try to take a woman's jewelry away from her.

Wildthang
03-06-2012, 02:00 PM
Well I think if the S ever H The F, I'm going to collect good lookin hookas becaue that stuff will always make money, if you know what I mean!

Mischief
03-07-2012, 07:00 PM
Lead is the only precious metal.

lostviking
03-08-2012, 06:02 PM
By the way, everyone clamors about China but guess who holds as much investment in the U.S. as China? We do. It's called U.S. Savings Bonds along with trusts and estates invested in the U.S.. $1.107 trillion vs. China's $1.132 trillion followed by Japan at 1.038 trillion. So China does not hold the lion's share of investment in the U.S. Not by a long shot.

I agree with everything you wrote Rick, but I will go one step further. The fact that China has such a huge investment in the US is almost a guarantee that their best interest is tied to our success. They know that selling a huge amount of US treasuries will hurt them more than anything. I think we need to worry more about nations that have zero US investment - and therefore nothing to loose by our demise.

As for this topic, If TSHTF I will bet you a gold coin that vegetables, gasoline, labor time, and stored food will be worth way more than gold or silver. But it all depends on your definition on the SHTF. If you are talking about a crash of the US monetary system where suddenly bread costs $70 a loaf, then an investment in a gold ETF might be especially smart. I would argue that investments in precious metals only pay off if the markets remain intact. Think about what that means, communication is still intact. Order is in the streets. People can still show up to their jobs as floor traders in the exchanges. If not, then all your predictions for the value of precious metals are going to be way off. Prices and value depend on liquid markets. How will your neighbor know how much corn your gold coin is worth unless he can check the value somewhere?

But what about sudden economic and social collapse? What about when everything you saved, metal or paper, is worthless? Thats when you vegetable garden, your canned food, your ability to live off the grid, and your sellable skills are going to save you. I think buying 25 thousand worth of gold coins is less likely to guarantee your survival than learning how to successfully grow tomatoes or fish. I also think the fishing and vegetables are something that will pay you dividends even if TSHTF never comes to fruition. The gold coins will only gather dust, and quite possible go down in value as quickly as they went up.

Rick
03-08-2012, 07:35 PM
I'm not sure any country has a vested interest in our demise, Iran excluded. We provide so much support to virtually every country in the world in terms of food, arms, and trade that everyone would be severely impacted if we took a powder.

Wildthang
03-08-2012, 08:29 PM
So what happened in the great depression, I think money was still good for purchasing goods, as long as you had some!

your_comforting_company
03-09-2012, 12:17 PM
Here's some gold that's actually worth something because you can put it in your belly:

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6949.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6950.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6958.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6959.jpg

So, how's that gold taste, Crash?

Rick
03-09-2012, 01:45 PM
Wildthang - The Great Depression doesn't have any easy answer but I'll try to summarize it for you. There was a general contraction period to the economy from about 1928 or '29 to around 1933. This is important because this was a period of deflation. One of the ways to combat it was a decline in the money supply. The money supply actually dropped 33 percent during the period so money was hard to come by. Add a 25% unemployment rate and there just was no money to be had. Most folks think prices went through the ceiling and there was huge inflation but just the opposite happened. Prices fell by about 10% per year (the depression lasted from '29 until the late '30s or early '40s depending on country). So prices hit rock bottom. Of course U.S. output also fell about 30%, which means a LOT of businesses simply went under.

It doesn't matter if eggs are only a nickel a dozen if you don't have a nickel.

YCC - Sweet! Honey! Uh, not you the stuff in the pics. Oh, never mind.

Winnie
03-10-2012, 04:43 AM
Here's some gold that's actually worth something because you can put it in your belly:

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6949.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6950.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6958.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6959.jpg

So, how's that gold taste, Crash?


Showoff....;)

crashdive123
03-10-2012, 07:53 AM
Here's some gold that's actually worth something because you can put it in your belly:

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6949.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6950.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6958.jpg

http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg184/your_comforting_company/Bee%20pictures/2-2-12%20Honey%20Harvest/DSCN6959.jpg

So, how's that gold taste, Crash?

It tastes great!!!!!!

Rick
03-10-2012, 09:05 AM
Less filling!

your_comforting_company
03-10-2012, 10:26 AM
From what I understand, Bartering became the economic choice for most. My grandma remembers picking cotton, to trade the labor for commodities. Not money or silver or gold. A (bushel?) of cotton would buy enough seeds to plant a garden, the extra from the garden would be traded for things like salt and sugar. They raised chickens and hogs which they fed slop and scraps, smoked the meat in a smokehouse (I remember it being there when I was a little kid) and traded some of that for other goods like material for clothing. Her mother would make clothes out of whatever material they got, so most times her dresses and her brothers shirts had the same print. I don't know what it was like in the cities, this area has always been pretty rural, but this is the info I get from my grandmother, who grew up her younger years in what she doesn't even recognize as a "depression". It's just "The way things were" and they adapted with USEFUL items. You couldn't put gold or silver on a bicycle rim to go to church, there was no "run to town right quick", you just did without. They ate things that were a far cry below sub-standard, including guts.
There are a few of those old buildings still around where folks used to go trade. Commissaries? Is that the right word? I know where two of them still stand.

Those girls did a good job making that gold! Wish I could take the credit, but all I really did was give them a place to live and keep it clean.

Wildthang
03-10-2012, 10:50 AM
Wildthang - The Great Depression doesn't have any easy answer but I'll try to summarize it for you. There was a general contraction period to the economy from about 1928 or '29 to around 1933. This is important because this was a period of deflation. One of the ways to combat it was a decline in the money supply. The money supply actually dropped 33 percent during the period so money was hard to come by. Add a 25% unemployment rate and there just was no money to be had. Most folks think prices went through the ceiling and there was huge inflation but just the opposite happened. Prices fell by about 10% per year (the depression lasted from '29 until the late '30s or early '40s depending on country). So prices hit rock bottom. Of course U.S. output also fell about 30%, which means a LOT of businesses simply went under.


It doesn't matter if eggs are only a nickel a dozen if you don't have a nickel.

YCC - Sweet! Honey! Uh, not you the stuff in the pics. Oh, never mind.

So money was still a valid way to buy things, and that is all I was illuding to. That is why I am only getting a percentage of gold / silver, and keeping a bunch of money to go with it. That was I have it covered either way...................I hope!
But I am stashing food and ammo because it is obvious tangible survival items will be very valuable!

hunter63
03-10-2012, 12:30 PM
Never keep all your eggs in one basket.....
Never keep all your baskets in one place.....
Never let anyone know how many baskets you have.....
One can never have too many baskets......
(yeah I know now I'm making these up)

Make sure the basket has a good heavy duty bottom ....to hold all the brass and lead.

Rick
03-10-2012, 09:17 PM
Holy cow! That reminds me of a great Irving Berlin song. "I'm Putting All My Eggs in One Basket". Yeah, yeah, I know. I'm old. So what? For those that don't know the song the vocals start about 1:30.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOsTRFRNgFI&feature=related